Tropical Wave in Western Caribbean

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The National Hurricane Center currently positions an unusually intense [for June anyways] tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic near 39W. It's had an impressive convective structure given the SAL around it and has actually organized since last night. The GFS continues to insist on much more development as it tracks west-northwest, briefly closing it off and briefly showing tropical storm-force winds (not at the same time). Sounds like an Invest 92L redux. At the very least, we should expect the NHC to eventually take notice. This wave isn't expected to fade substantially like 92L, however. It'll likely deliver heavy rains and gusty winds to the northeast Caribbean Islands and then track into the western Caribbean, where several GFS ensembles say it will develop [after interacting with the monsoon trough] and enter the Bay of Campeche. Sound familiar?

As far as conditions in the short term, it's over waters >26C, has a very noticeable moisture bubble, and is expected to be under the protection of an anticyclone.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Looks nice, but looks can be deceiving.

[gatorcane]

Convection certainly seems on the increase. But there is alot of dry air for this wave to deal with as shown in the latest WV image though shear doesn't look that bad for the next few days. There will likely be alot of shear across the Central and Eastern Caribbean with a TUTT low centered near Eastern Cuba and another ULL north of Puerto Rico dropping south. If this wave has a chance it will probably have to be when it gets to the Western Caribbean in about one week.

[Hurricaneman]

This is the one the GFS has been developing to various degrees so it does bear watching

[ozonepete]

Very impressive wave, but yes, it has a looonnng way to go through a whole lot of shear. But the fact that some of the models hold on to it is a very good point. They are getting better at this every year as interpretational upgrades are added to them. Definitely worth watching, Trop13 and gator.

[ozonepete]

Worth noting that mid-level shear is actually conducive for development, or minimally for maintenance of the wave. Since this CIMSS mid-level shear product shows virtually no shear at all at mid-levels we know the strong shear in this area is all at high levels. That's not deleterious for tropical waves since they do not extend as high up in the atmosphere as TSs or hurricanes. Probably one of the main reasons why the GFS holds on to it.

[floridasun78]

it have go more nw or going run into south America

[ozonepete]

it have go more nw or going run into south America

Yup. Good point. And it is starting to move WNW so it should move just a tad north of South America.

[floridasun78]

it have go more nw or going run into south America

Yup. Good point. And it is starting to move WNW so it should move just a tad north of South America.

or part wave will move over south america

[AJC3]

Tropical RAMSDIS online for Central/South America and the Caribbean has a great set of imagery to view this wave.

Go to sector 6 here http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/rmtc.asp#Sector%206

[floridasun78]

it look like getting weaker that tropical wave

[ozonepete]

Tropical RAMSDIS online for Central/South America and the Caribbean has a great set of imagery to view this wave.

Go to sector 6 here http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/rmtc.asp#Sector%206

Thanks for posting that AJC. It's a great site.

Here's a nice image of the entire tropical Atlantic from NOAA's AWC International Satellite Imagery that gives you the wide perspective. This is clearly a very unusually strong wave for June. And notice the two strong ones behind it over Africa. Another indicator that this season could be very intense.

[floridasun78]

look like wave going into south america

[crownweather]

Do you have a website address for that AWC image?

Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services
http://www.crownweather.com

[artist]

Do you have a website address for that AWC image?

Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services
http://www.crownweather.com

looks like it came from here -
http://aviationweather.gov/obs/sat/intl/

[ozonepete]

Yeah, that's it. Thanks for posting Artist.

[ozonepete]

Our easterly wave is chugging along but has lost its convection as expected. The models don't do much with this and so right now I wouldn't expect much to happen with it, although they do indicate that it could strengthen as it approaches the area where Barry started to get together. But look at the next one behind it moving towards the African coast. That's got a huge blow-up of convection with it. Though it will likely die down like this one we've been following, the easterly wave activity we're seeing is unusual for June. Normally you'd expect this later in the season.

[tailgater]

Wave shows up nicely on mimic(total precipitable water).
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html
Should bring the L.A. islands some breezy showers.

[artist]

Our easterly wave is chugging along but has lost its convection as expected. The models don't do much with this and so right now I wouldn't expect much to happen with it, although they do indicate that it could strengthen as it approaches the area where Barry started to get together. But look at the next one behind it moving towards the African coast. That's got a huge blow-up of convection with it. Though it will likely die down like this one we've been following, the easterly wave activity we're seeing is unusual for June. Normally you'd expect this later in the season.

that second wave looks like it is higher in latitude

[floridasun78]

one getting near leewards it higher in latitude from one crash into south america only thing that shear a bit high in carribbean