Tropical Wave in Western Caribbean

[colbroe]

Looks like it is getting a second wind

[Hurricaneman]

is this the wave that the models develop into a tropical cyclone and send to anywhere from Tampico to New Orleans in 10 days

[floridasun78]

here lastest look on area east leedwards

[rockyman]

I think the "Central Atlantic tropical wave" is now entering the Caribbean. Would it be possible to change the title, and to continue to use the thread?

Mimic clearly shows the atmosphere moistening up over the Leeward Islands.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html


Based on the Euro Ensembles' "more than 50% probability of a SW Caribbean TC development" in 96 hours (from Wxman57's post in the Global thread), I think this wave could be the spark.

[Steve H.]

Nice looking amplifying wave/inverted trough just passing 40W

[rockyman]

I believe this wave is the one that is now moving into the Western Caribbean. Looking at MIMIC, the southern portion of the wave appears to now be spinning and moving northwest:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

Here's the 18z TAFB, showing the wave's placement:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/USA_18Z.gif

[rockyman]

The 18z GFS bring this vorticity NW across Honduras/Nicaragua border, then into Belize, across the Yucatan, and into the BOC (as a VERY weak system):

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFS/201 ... .anim.html

[rockyman]

8pm TWD: TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 23N80W TO 9N79W MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. A MODERATE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS EAST OF THE AXIS. THE WAVE IS HELPING ENHANCE SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION OVER CUBA AND NORTH OF JAMAICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 77W-83W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

[floridasun78]

i think why outlook talk about it because of may cause flood on islands and mad slide only one model support this area but what i see it kill it very quick

[gatorcane]

the wave east of the Antilles may end up seeing better conditions once in the Western Caribbean.

[floridasun78]

this same wave this topic?http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=115156

[tailgater]

Looks like this wave is starting to get a little twist to it also, I'm pretty sure it's mostly in the mid levels right now but it might get a mention in the next TWO, something like heavy rains and gusty winds for Honduras, Nicaragua and Caymans

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/st ... type=flash

[vbhoutex]

Looks like this wave is starting to get a little twist to it also, I'm pretty sure it's mostly in the mid levels right now but it might get a mention in the next TWO, something like heavy rains and gusty winds for Honduras, Nicaragua and Caymans

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/st ... type=flash

We may be watching two waves this coming week. It definitely looks like it may be consolidating some, just not sure at which level. Like you said, mid-level is best guess right now.

[gatorcane]

NHC experimental marine graphicast showing wave in Western Caribbean and other wave near the Leeward islands:

[Aric Dunn]

have to always watch these highly divergent setups... the upper winds are not currently favorable for development but that does not mean the increased upper support for convection cant aid the development of a surface low then the upper winds in a few days becoming more favorable... especially in this scenario with the eastern carrib wave approaching the same area in a couple days.. needs to be watched.


maybe the eastern and western threads should be merged since they soon will be the same general entity..

[Dean4Storms]

Wow, some deeper convection with this western wave this afternoon!!

[floridasun78]

Wow, some deeper convection with this western wave this afternoon!!

but shear having fun with tropical wave

[cycloneye]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE...ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM MAY
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Hurricaneman]

This may end up developing in the BOC if it does at all basically due to shear

[gatorcane]

This may end up developing in the BOC if it does at all basically due to shear

Not sure about that. There is an upper-level low sitting over the BOC right now and doesn't look like it is in any hurry to move much over the next several days. Shear is strong there also and across the Western Caribbean as well. This wave is blowing up convection now because it is shear-induced. It should move towards Central America bringing heavy rains. We'll have to see if the shear lessens over the BOC by the time this wave gets there but I am not optimistic.