Global model runs discussion

[Rgv20]

Going by the 12zGFS Ensembles it sure looks like its going to be an interesting time around the 4th of July!

12zGFS Ensemble Members 1004MB Isobars



12zGFS Ensemble Memebrs 1000MB Isobars

[Alyono]

we need keep eye wave east leedwards that could start system in western carribbean

the trigger may be a wave over northern SA

[Hurricane Andrew]

SA?

CMC has been consistent, have to give it that.

[tailgater]

I hate to speak for someone else but I'm pretty sure that is South America.

[Alyono]

I hate to speak for someone else but I'm pretty sure that is South America.

yep

[Rgv20]

The combine 12zEnesmbles of NAVGEM, CMC, ECMWF, and GFS favor Tropical development in the Pacific side in the 5 to 10 day period.

[Alyono]

Probs for longer time periods that do indicate a higher chance of BOC development than posted above.

Latest GFS is showing a TD/TS heading to Tampico

[ronjon]

The GFS, CMC, and ECM show a rather deep trough and significant weakness in the 500 mb pattern over the central gulf coast in the 8-10 day time period. So if anything does develop, might be a likely target area.

[sunnyday]

Several days ago, maybe last week, there was mention of a supposed landfall of a storm in Mobile, Al.,near the first of July and another supposed landfall in Palm Beach, Fl. on July 12. Is this predicted storm related to either of those predictions?

[artist]

Several days ago, maybe last week, there was mention of a supposed landfall of a storm in Mobile, Al.,near the first of July and another supposed landfall in Palm Beach, Fl. on July 12. Is this predicted storm related to either of those predictions?

Just have to know who made those predictions, seeing as I live in Palm Beach.

[sunnyday]

See pp.234 and 235 in this topic (Global Model Runs). Someone says Joe. B mentioned a "landfalling hurricane between Miami and Orlando" around 7/12, and someone else mentioned Palm Beach. Of course, the prediction was very far out.

[artist]

See pp.234 and 235 in this topic (Global Model Runs). Someone says Joe. B mentioned a "landfalling hurricane between Miami and Orlando" around 7/12, and someone else mentioned Palm Beach. Of course, the prediction was very far out.

hmmm, two? Oh, dear. Thanks. I think.

[Hurricaneman]

See pp.234 and 235 in this topic (Global Model Runs). Someone says Joe. B mentioned a "landfalling hurricane between Miami and Orlando" around 7/12, and someone else mentioned Palm Beach. Of course, the prediction was very far out.

How can he possibly know this is going to happen, sounds like Joe Bastardi hyping again

[Dean4Storms]

See pp.234 and 235 in this topic (Global Model Runs). Someone says Joe. B mentioned a "landfalling hurricane between Miami and Orlando" around 7/12, and someone else mentioned Palm Beach. Of course, the prediction was very far out.

How can he possibly know this is going to happen, sounds like Joe Bastardi hyping again

No he wasn't hyping anything, he mentioned that the Brazilian Model Meteogram showed a TC passing between Miami to Orlando with its forecast pressures on the 12th of July. That is merely passing along a fact not hyping anything.

[cycloneye]

Since this video by Levi Cowan talks about the models,I am posting it in this thread. Pay close attention to the last part of it.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... -mid-july/

[Hurricane Alexis]

See pp.234 and 235 in this topic (Global Model Runs). Someone says Joe. B mentioned a "landfalling hurricane between Miami and Orlando" around 7/12, and someone else mentioned Palm Beach. Of course, the prediction was very far out.

How can he possibly know this is going to happen, sounds like Joe Bastardi hyping again

No he wasn't hyping anything, he mentioned that the Brazilian Model Meteogram showed a TC passing between Miami to Orlando with its forecast pressures on the 12th of July. That is merely passing along a fact not hyping anything.

When was the last time a hurricane struck sfl in July? It doesn't seem likely.

[Dean4Storms]

Nobody said it was likely. Bastardi just pointed out the coming phases of the MJO and said that Meteogram was interesting.

[Hurricaneman]

The Levi Cowan forecast is a little concerning especially if the Bermuda High stays entrenched during mid July and a system becomes a tropical cyclone in that period, as for next weeks maybe development I see a possibility of some low tracking across the Yucatan and becoming Chantal in the BOC and tracking anywhere between Brownsville to as far northeast as New Orleans so we'll see what happens

[Alyono]

CMC still has a storm, though weaker

GFS not really that much. EC enembles still show a decent chance of a storm

[wxman57]

EC ensembles indicate a 60-70% chance of TC in SW Caribbean in about 96 hrs.