Global model runs discussion

[Ntxw]

EC ensembles indicate a 60-70% chance of TC in SW Caribbean in about 96 hrs.

With the EPAC going active and your given theory of 15 days, I would tend to believe the models of anything in the western Carib or western gulf next week from the models. There is also a good trough modeled to dig into the eastern CONUS so whatever forms (Barry like system perhaps) I think will head further north than earlier this season into that weakness.

Not seeing anything substantial from the African wave train until the MJO arrives in phase 1 and definitely 2. It is only June-July though so this is nothing unusual for this area.

[cycloneye]

Entertainment note= This is a very long range forecast by CFS for July 17.

[Janie2006]

Since this video by Levi Cowan talks about the models,I am posting it in this thread. Pay close attention to the last part of it.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... -mid-july/

Very interesting discussion, Luis, thanks for posting. Cowan does a good job describing the effects of an enhanced MJO on tropical wx patterns in the Atlantic.

[Hurricane Andrew]

EC ensembles indicate a 60-70% chance of TC in SW Caribbean in about 96 hrs.

I personally don't see that happening. What do you think?

[Alyono]

12Z GFS still has a system in the WGOM in the 4th of July

[Aric Dunn]

12z cmc much more aggressive ..

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[SFLcane]

12z cmc much more aggressive ..

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

That actually appears weaker then previous runs. Until I some more models jump on board with this idea iam not buying it.

[Kohlecane]

so does this wave that's being followed have anything to do with development in the BOC/GOM late next week??

[Alyono]

12z cmc much more aggressive ..

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

That actually appears weaker then previous runs. Until I some more models jump on board with this idea iam not buying it.

its FAR more intense

[cycloneye]

Is interesting that CMC has moved the timeframe up a little bit and that is turning this model to a real test after the upgrade to see if it shines or goes down the drain.The climax will be known very soon to see if is for real or is another of it's old ghost tricks.

[rockyman]

If the system entering the Eastern Caribbean is the "spark", it would appear that the Canadian IS on to something...since this system in the E Carib will be in the Western Caribbean in about 3 days.

[BigB0882]

CMC also appears to hook this farther into the Eastern gulf, looking more like a FL landfall in the last run, right? I know we are focusing more on formation than landfall at this point, but just curious what it is seeing.

[wxman57]

EC ensembles indicate a 60-70% chance of TC in SW Caribbean in about 96 hrs.

I personally don't see that happening. What do you think?

I think another weak Barry-style storm in the BoC moving west into Mexico is most likely. Don't buy the Canadian...

[USTropics]

CMC also appears to hook this farther into the Eastern gulf, looking more like a FL landfall in the last run, right? I know we are focusing more on formation than landfall at this point, but just curious what it is seeing.

There is currently a trough positioned in between two blocking highs over the central United States. Although the CMC and GFS begin to retrograde the trough towards the north around 5-7 days, the CMC shows enough troughing for the more northern track (a more intense storm will also tend to track more towards the weakness left behind). I personally don't see a storm deepening that quickly this time of year. A more western track is likely.

[N2FSU]

CMC also appears to hook this farther into the Eastern gulf, looking more like a FL landfall in the last run, right? I know we are focusing more on formation than landfall at this point, but just curious what it is seeing.

12Z CMC at 192hr:

[SFLcane]

12z cmc much more aggressive ..

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

That actually appears weaker then previous runs. Until I some more models jump on board with this idea iam not buying it.

its FAR more intense

Intense fantasy? Well find out till now 0 support from other models.

[gatorcane]

Is interesting that CMC has moved the timeframe up a little bit and that is turning this model to a real test after the upgrade to see if it shines or goes down the drain.The climax will be known very soon to see if is for real or is another of it's old ghost tricks.

Indeed it does seem the outlier with this Gulf system it is calling for. But if it gets it right, it certainly be a big victory for this model after the upgrade. I am not really buying the CMC solution right now. We just saw that the long-range forecast it had for Cosme showed it turning sharply north into Mexico about 7 days out in the run hitting a weakness....which we know didn't happen. CMC might be too bullish not only on development but on this big trough in the Gulf that could move it north.

['CaneFreak]

Oh really? The GFS and ECMWF are also showing the same trough invading the eastern US around the same time frame. So you are saying that they are all wrong and this is going into MX? Never seen so much model agreement on an eastern US trough this time of year.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_12z/avnloopnew.html
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5 ... floop.html

EC ensembles indicate a 60-70% chance of TC in SW Caribbean in about 96 hrs.

I personally don't see that happening. What do you think?

I think another weak Barry-style storm in the BoC moving west into Mexico is most likely. Don't buy the Canadian...

[Aric Dunn]

Is interesting that CMC has moved the timeframe up a little bit and that is turning this model to a real test after the upgrade to see if it shines or goes down the drain.The climax will be known very soon to see if is for real or is another of it's old ghost tricks.

Indeed it does seem the outlier with this Gulf system it is calling for. But if it gets it right, it certainly be a big victory for this model after the upgrade. I am not really buying the CMC solution right now. We just saw that the long-range forecast it had for Cosme showed it turning sharply north into Mexico about 7 days out in the run hitting a weakness....which we know didn't happen. CMC might be too bullish not only on development but on this big trough in the Gulf that could move it north.

Though the cmc is the only model showing anything in the gulf and carrib of any significance... the cmc also had a weak low develop from a high latitude system that none of the other models did ... that is until now.. the 12z euro showing a weak system drop south than get caught under the ridging similar to cmc.. so maybe the cmc is onto to something in the carrib as well...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTRO ... floop.html

['CaneFreak]

I think the real question(s) is/are: 1) does this develop? 2) how fast does it develop? 3) how fast does that eastern US trough and western US ridge break down because ultimately that will determine whether this goes into the Gulf or whether it goes into MX. I personally do not see the pattern breaking down as fast as the ECMWF currently depicts and so I would say a solution between the GFS and ECMWF is more likely with a landfall point somewhere between Brownsville, TX and New Orleans. Don't worry about the EURO not showing anything at this point because the EURO has problems with tropical cyclogenesis.