Texas Summer - 2013
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Yeah rain doesn't look good this week at all. Saving grace is southerly breezes and some high clouds are preventing temps from pushing 100 everyday but without rain by the end of the week many of us will get there. Models hint at NW flow again at the end of the week, hope for the best! Tropics still looks to get more active end of this month into early-mid July potentially. Summer doldrums have arrived! Yuck...what any of us would give to be posting in the winter thread.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
For two runs now Euro is showing an unusually stout cold front to effect us around July 4th week (any kind of front this time of year is strange and subject to scrutiny). At the same time it's bringing up an EPAC system. Warning though, this is la la land Euro and is subject to extreme variability. Better than showing nothing...I guess.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- wxman57
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Re:
Tireman4 wrote:I miss Winter. Please come back. My run today was a torture fest. Sigh.
Had a good ride yesterday. Only 30 miles and was home by 12:30pm. Still a bit cool at that time, but tolerable.
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FW is acknowledging the latest model trends for 1 week+ away event. Summer Oasis or mirage?
***
IN FACT...MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE A COLD FRONT SUNDAY OR
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE INCESSANT
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.
FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION AND
FORGO THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. HOWEVER...IF FUTURE MODEL
RUNS TREND WEAKER WITH THE RIDGE OR STRONGER WITH THE FRONT...RAIN
CHANCES COULD BE ADDED IN LATER FORECASTS FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY...AFTER AN ABOVE NORMAL ROUND OF
TEMPERATURES DURING THE LAST WEEK OF JUNE IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY BE
BLESSED WITH SOME NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY.
***
IN FACT...MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE A COLD FRONT SUNDAY OR
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE INCESSANT
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.
FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION AND
FORGO THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. HOWEVER...IF FUTURE MODEL
RUNS TREND WEAKER WITH THE RIDGE OR STRONGER WITH THE FRONT...RAIN
CHANCES COULD BE ADDED IN LATER FORECASTS FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY...AFTER AN ABOVE NORMAL ROUND OF
TEMPERATURES DURING THE LAST WEEK OF JUNE IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY BE
BLESSED WITH SOME NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Tireman4
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Re: Re:
wxman57 wrote:Tireman4 wrote:I miss Winter. Please come back. My run today was a torture fest. Sigh.
Had a good ride yesterday. Only 30 miles and was home by 12:30pm. Still a bit cool at that time, but tolerable.
Oh great. The Dark Lord of Summer is back. He tells me it is too cool at 12:30 pm. Now I will just crawl off and die. LOL
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- Tireman4
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Re: Re:
Alyono wrote:Tireman4 wrote:I miss Winter. Please come back. My run today was a torture fest. Sigh.
had one last Saturday. Did so at 1 pm. Lovely run. No muscle cramps when it is nice and warm
Oh it is for me. Now, I maybe a tad bit older than you. I have to watch my fluids religiously.
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- Tireman4
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Re:
Ntxw wrote:FW is acknowledging the latest model trends for 1 week+ away event. Summer Oasis or mirage?
***
IN FACT...MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE A COLD FRONT SUNDAY OR
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE INCESSANT
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.
FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION AND
FORGO THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. HOWEVER...IF FUTURE MODEL
RUNS TREND WEAKER WITH THE RIDGE OR STRONGER WITH THE FRONT...RAIN
CHANCES COULD BE ADDED IN LATER FORECASTS FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY...AFTER AN ABOVE NORMAL ROUND OF
TEMPERATURES DURING THE LAST WEEK OF JUNE IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY BE
BLESSED WITH SOME NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY.
Ok, you know what. If they are messing with my mind....I will hate them forever. I see near 100's for us next week..
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- gboudx
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Re: Re:
wxman57 wrote:Tireman4 wrote:I miss Winter. Please come back. My run today was a torture fest. Sigh.
Had a good ride yesterday. Only 30 miles and was home by 12:30pm. Still a bit cool at that time, but tolerable.
I'm in Telluride this week. You would hate it. 15% humidity and 70 degrees. I did a ride today but the altitude got me.
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- Tireman4
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Re: Re:
gboudx wrote:wxman57 wrote:Tireman4 wrote:I miss Winter. Please come back. My run today was a torture fest. Sigh.
Had a good ride yesterday. Only 30 miles and was home by 12:30pm. Still a bit cool at that time, but tolerable.
I'm in Telluride this week. You would hate it. 15% humidity and 70 degrees. I did a ride today but the altitude got me.
Yep, I would hate it...LOL...but yeah, the altitude takes awhile to get used to...
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Re: Re:
gboudx wrote:I'm in Telluride this week. You would hate it. 15% humidity and 70 degrees. I did a ride today but the altitude got me.
That sounds divine......
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TOTAL NOVICE. The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Lansing MI, Galveston TX, Madison WI, Houston TX, Newark DE
Lansing MI, Galveston TX, Madison WI, Houston TX, Newark DE
- Rgv20
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NWS morning discussion out of Brownsville.....Please let it Rain!!
THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT GLIMMER OF HOPE FOR SOME RAIN. LOOKING AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD AND BEYOND THE GFS AND ECMWF OPERATIONAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD THE WESTERN RIDGE WELL NORTH IN THE
NORTHWEST CANADA WITH ANOTHER RIDGE EXPANDING ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC WITH STRONG MERIDIONAL FLOW TO ALLOW FOR A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TO DIVE THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS AND DIG A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER AND
SHOWS A FARTHER SOUTHWARD INTRUSION OF THE TROUGH AND ITS EVENTUAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS TO LEAVE A WEAKNESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
WITH AT THE SAME TIME MODEL CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN APPROACHING
INVERTED TROUGH IN THE TROPICAL EASTERLIES...WORKING ITS WAY UNDER
THE TROUGH AND RIDGE. THE LOW CHANCE OF THESE TWO WEAKNESSES
COMBINING TO PRODUCE A SHEAR ZONE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COULD
ENHANCE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEN IT WILL
BE A MATTER OF TIME IF SOME OF THEM WORK IN OUR GENERAL DIRECTION.
THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT GLIMMER OF HOPE FOR SOME RAIN. LOOKING AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD AND BEYOND THE GFS AND ECMWF OPERATIONAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD THE WESTERN RIDGE WELL NORTH IN THE
NORTHWEST CANADA WITH ANOTHER RIDGE EXPANDING ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC WITH STRONG MERIDIONAL FLOW TO ALLOW FOR A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TO DIVE THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS AND DIG A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER AND
SHOWS A FARTHER SOUTHWARD INTRUSION OF THE TROUGH AND ITS EVENTUAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS TO LEAVE A WEAKNESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
WITH AT THE SAME TIME MODEL CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN APPROACHING
INVERTED TROUGH IN THE TROPICAL EASTERLIES...WORKING ITS WAY UNDER
THE TROUGH AND RIDGE. THE LOW CHANCE OF THESE TWO WEAKNESSES
COMBINING TO PRODUCE A SHEAR ZONE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COULD
ENHANCE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEN IT WILL
BE A MATTER OF TIME IF SOME OF THEM WORK IN OUR GENERAL DIRECTION.
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- vbhoutex
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Re: Texas Summer - 2013
Jeff Lindner says HOt!!
Little day to day variation in the weather through Saturday.
Upper level ridge over the four corners region will amplify and expand eastward across much of TX through Saturday bringing likely the hottest temperatures of 2013 to many areas of the state. The building ridge will effectively end rain chances which are already on the low side and mainly confined today to the coastal counties and those counties east of I-45 where moisture is greatest. Gusty S winds today will help mitigate a warming low levels under the increasing subsidence from the building ridge with most locations reaching the mid to upper 90’s. Recent dry streak (last week) and warm surface temperatures are helping to dry out the ground and brown vegetation and suspect this will begin to have an impact on afternoon high temperatures which have thus far been tempered by the decent ground moisture. As the ridge builds overhead Friday and Saturday expect areas west of I-45 to reach 100 or better and the City of Houston may be very close to 100 depending on what time the seabreeze front moves through. Areas that have not seen rainfall over the past 2 weeks could see 100’s as early as Thursday.
Good news is that nearly all the forecast models break down this ridging and retro-grade (move westward) the ridge axis on Sunday as an impressive deep trough develops over the Great Lakes into the east coast. SE TX and much of eastern TX will lie along the eastern flank of the western US upper level high and this will help to guide disturbances SSW to SW into the state from the NE starting late Sunday. Forecast soundings for Sunday afternoon show a moist air mass with good low level instability. Expect thunderstorm complexes to our NE to approach the region during the afternoon hours which could either move through the area or send strong outflow boundaries into the area. Such patterns tend to produce a severe weather risk. NNE to NE flow aloft will help to usher in a weak cold front to areas NE of the region on Monday and this will continue to be a favorable breeding ground for thunderstorm formation which will then track SSW to SW into our region during the afternoon and evening hours on Monday and possibly Tuesday.
Upper ridging then looks to build ENE from the western US into the center of the nation next week with the troughing pushing eastward. This pattern begins to open the Gulf of Mexico to deep SE flow into the state of Texas toward/around the 4th of July holiday. While we are talking very long ranges at this point (end of next week) there appears to be at least some potential for some tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico toward the first week of July. The GFS has been fairly supportive of this idea for several runs now and a couple of the other global models appear to be trending slightly in that direction also. While I rarely believe such solutions at such long time periods, the models did do very well with the formation potential for both Andrea and Barry up to two weeks out so they could be on to something. Additionally, the favorable phase of the MJO looks to be arriving into the Gulf of Mexico from the eastern Pacific about the first week of July which is correlated to an increased potential for tropical cyclone formation.
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I can't believe I'm saying this but a pattern change is coming to a city near you! Everything is lining up well next week after a HOT (100-105 likely) weekend. Models are getting more bold with NW flow, 60s for lows for some (unheard of in July!), sub 90 readings northern half of the state near July 4th.
At the same time it is also looking more likely something will happen in the Gulf whether it be a storm or plume of tropical moisture to keep us active beyond that. Hang on for a few days and we will see Portastorm potentially come out of his summer burrow to give wxman57 a scare!


At the same time it is also looking more likely something will happen in the Gulf whether it be a storm or plume of tropical moisture to keep us active beyond that. Hang on for a few days and we will see Portastorm potentially come out of his summer burrow to give wxman57 a scare!


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- Rgv20
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NWS Brownsville morning discussion.....HOT weather followed by possible Rain!
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM. BROAD AND DOMINANT 500
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA OF THE UNITED
STATES...AND EXTENDED OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
..WILL CONTINUE THE HOT AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN INITIATED IN THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...EVEN THOUGH THE 500 MB HIGH WILL
SHIFT SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST...AND RE-CENTER ITSELF OVER NEVADA BY THE
END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...THE HOTTEST DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES SO FAR FOR THE YEAR MAY OCCUR LATER THIS WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEYOND THE END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT A 500 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE FROM THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE TOWARDS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST...AS ANOTHER 500 MB LOW MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IF MODEL GUIDANCE IS CORRECT THIS
FAR OUT...THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAY EXPERIENCE SOME PRECIPITATION
AROUND THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM. BROAD AND DOMINANT 500
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA OF THE UNITED
STATES...AND EXTENDED OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
..WILL CONTINUE THE HOT AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN INITIATED IN THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...EVEN THOUGH THE 500 MB HIGH WILL
SHIFT SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST...AND RE-CENTER ITSELF OVER NEVADA BY THE
END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...THE HOTTEST DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES SO FAR FOR THE YEAR MAY OCCUR LATER THIS WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEYOND THE END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT A 500 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE FROM THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE TOWARDS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST...AS ANOTHER 500 MB LOW MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IF MODEL GUIDANCE IS CORRECT THIS
FAR OUT...THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAY EXPERIENCE SOME PRECIPITATION
AROUND THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY.
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The EWX office hints at a pattern change (troughiness) in the long term.
I hope so, because the current pattern depresses me.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT WED JUN 26 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DRIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH OVER TEXAS. LOWER LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE A LITTLE. IT APPEARS THAT SOILS HAVE DRIED SOMEWHAT AND VEGETATION BEGINNING TO DRY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100 BY THURSDAY. ONLY SOME HILL COUNTRY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW 100 AND THEN MID TO UPPER 90S. WEAKENING SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR STRATUS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH MIXING OF DRY AIR ALOFT FOR SUNNY AFTERNOONS.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERS ON THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN STATES. CONTINUED SLIGHT WARMING IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS SOILS AND VEGETATION DRY FURTHER WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 EVEN IN THE HILL COUNTRY. THE DEVELOPING UNSEASONABLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ERODE THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALLOWING FOR A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT DRAGS A RARE LATE JUNE COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING MAY FURTHER WARM THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPWARD FORCING IN THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST AND MOST AREAS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAINTAINING A CAPPING INVERSION...HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS FILTER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 90S.
BEYOND THIS FORECAST FOR THE JULY 4TH AND WEEKEND AFTER...SOME MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP SOME TROUGHINESS OVER TEXAS.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT WED JUN 26 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DRIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH OVER TEXAS. LOWER LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE A LITTLE. IT APPEARS THAT SOILS HAVE DRIED SOMEWHAT AND VEGETATION BEGINNING TO DRY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100 BY THURSDAY. ONLY SOME HILL COUNTRY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW 100 AND THEN MID TO UPPER 90S. WEAKENING SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR STRATUS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH MIXING OF DRY AIR ALOFT FOR SUNNY AFTERNOONS.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERS ON THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN STATES. CONTINUED SLIGHT WARMING IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS SOILS AND VEGETATION DRY FURTHER WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 EVEN IN THE HILL COUNTRY. THE DEVELOPING UNSEASONABLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ERODE THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALLOWING FOR A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT DRAGS A RARE LATE JUNE COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING MAY FURTHER WARM THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPWARD FORCING IN THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST AND MOST AREAS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAINTAINING A CAPPING INVERSION...HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS FILTER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 90S.
BEYOND THIS FORECAST FOR THE JULY 4TH AND WEEKEND AFTER...SOME MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP SOME TROUGHINESS OVER TEXAS.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS.
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- wxman57
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Re: Texas Summer - 2013
Overnight GFS still going with 105 degrees for IAH on Saturday. That should be just about warm enough.
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- Portastorm
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Re: Texas Summer - 2013
wxman57 wrote:Overnight GFS still going with 105 degrees for IAH on Saturday. That should be just about warm enough.
Now this is really YOUR kind of weather, isn't it?!

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