Global model runs discussion

[wxman57]

The last few European runs have shown significant troughing developing of Texas by next week. Should that verify, it would seem such a large area of lower pressures would bring any disturbance more poleward. But I'm sure wxman57 has his reasons for thinking it stays south and he gets paid for his reasons ... I don't!

Euro does have a trof axis across east Texas by next Tuesday, with NW-W winds aloft across Texas and SW flow across the Gulf. Anything in the SW in that flow pattern would head to the NE not to the north toward Texas. That's assuming it's significant enough to get picked up by the trof.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I’ll have to agree with wxman on the Canadian. My Canadian Coup posting a while back was half in jest. We all know that the CMC spins so many spurious storms that we would ask what happens after the Greek alphabet. I’m asking myself today is that not a repost of Andrea on the latest Canadian?

Personally, until the Euro shows something I don’t even pay attention. GFS long term is still questionable.

Btw, although we have never and probably will never have to answer this question. What does happen after the Greek alphabet?

The ECMWF hardly ever shows development before it occurs. If you ignore it too long, you might just miss the storm all together.

I do agree with others with whatever forming in the Bay of Campeche tracking north-northeast. Assuming a tropical cyclone develops, it would be a threat to Texas and Louisiana. This trough and is too potent and the ridge is too far west to allow for a Barry-type track.

[Alyono]

Why would ANYONE use the EC for genesis?

A blindfolded baby would do a better job predicting genesis than the EC, which consistently show nothing

[Ntxw]

Euro does have a trof axis across east Texas by next Tuesday, with NW-W winds aloft across Texas and SW flow across the Gulf. Anything in the SW in that flow pattern would head to the NE not to the north toward Texas. That's assuming it's significant enough to get picked up by the trof.

Wxman57, the models are also showing the Bermuda high retrograding towards the Atlantic coast. This is why I think moving too far NE or E is unlikely which is what the CMC is doing and putting the high too far NE compared to the other models. It could be right but it doesn't have support in that aspect. I think N then slowly NE before the high comes in is what I'm reading from guidance.

[Alyono]

Canadian drops E Gulf TC

[Hurricane Andrew]

...Btw, although we have never and probably will never have to answer this question. What does happen after the Greek alphabet?

We begin to rebuild.

ROFL

Good one man!

[N2FSU]

12Z CMC; 174hr

[gatorcane]

Canadian drops E Gulf TC

Yep, the 12Z CMC has officially dropped it. Considering it is late June not a whole lot going on out there in the Atlantic as far as possible tropical development is concerned even in the long-range. The waiting continues....

[cycloneye]

Canadian drops E Gulf TC

Yep, the 12Z CMC has officially dropped it. Considering it is late June not a whole lot going on out there in the Atlantic as far as possible tropical development is concerned even in the long-range. The waiting continues....

In other words back to square one to follow the models (GFS / ECMWF) and see when they start to latch on something.

[cycloneye]

We may start to watch the East/Central Atlantic from the second week of July and forward as the Global Hazards Update said. Here are the 12z GFS Ensembles as they pick up activity in the MDR by those yellow colors.

[Alyono]

Canadian drops E Gulf TC

Yep, the 12Z CMC has officially dropped it. Considering it is late June not a whole lot going on out there in the Atlantic as far as possible tropical development is concerned even in the long-range. The waiting continues....

In other words back to square one to follow the models (GFS / ECMWF) and see when they start to latch on something.

NOT the EC!

ONLY the EC ensemble (and not the mean, but the ensemble probabilities, which most here do not have access to)

You'll be waiting for a lottery win for less time than you will for the EC to depict something in the deep tropics

[ronjon]

Actually I'd start to focus on the GOM for some home brew action as the tail end of a stalled front is forecast to make it into the GOM early part of next week due to an anomalously strong trough over the central-eastern US. The GFS has been trending increasingly wetter with this feature and it wouldn't be completely out of the ordinary for something to flare up from that.

[BigB0882]

Where in the Gulf is the tail end of the front expected to stall? I ask because I noticed our rain chances were 60% or so toward the end of the 10 day cycle for the last 2-3 days but today it has dropped to the typical 30% I wonder if they think see the trough not digging as deep or maybe the front will stall out further away from us than originally thought? Just curious.

[gatorcane]

If you loop this image, you can see where HPC thinks the front will end up:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

[Frank2]

Over the past month the subtropical or Bermunda high seems to be in a more traditional location than in past years - not good...

[SFLcane]

Over the past month the subtropical or Bermunda high seems to be in a more traditional location than in past years - not good...

Indeed frank..that's been my concern for a few weeks now. If the overall pattern doesn't change much we might be in for a long ride this season in Florida.

[ronjon]

If you loop this image, you can see where HPC thinks the front will end up:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

Looking at the 12z GFS, its much more agressive - look at the 500 mb pattern on Monday. Looks like a winter type trough. front would make into the central GOM with that set up.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=wnatl&param=500_vort_ht&cycle=12&image=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_wnatl_120_500_vort_ht.gif

[xcool22]

anyone have link to NCEP ensembles

[BigB0882]

Would a front making it all the way into the Gulf mean a heck of a lot of shear? Just wondering. It might pull anything that forms up into the Gulf coast but maybe it would also result in a weaker storm?

[SouthFloridawx]

If you look at the Model at the 250 Wind Height, there is definitely a big change in the Upper Level winds in the Atlantic Basin. Looks much more favorable in the next week or so.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/list_files_area.php?model=gfs&cycle=12&area=atlantic&param=250_wnd_ht