Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

anyone have link to NCEP ensembles

The NCEP site.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/

From Levi Cowan's site.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/

[Hurricaneman]

Would a front making it all the way into the Gulf mean a heck of a lot of shear? Just wondering. It might pull anything that forms up into the Gulf coast but maybe it would also result in a weaker storm?

This is the reason that 2004 is a better analog than 2003 especially with these abnormally strong troughs, 2003 didn't really have that

[xcool22]

thanks

[gatorcane]

If you loop this image, you can see where HPC thinks the front will end up:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

Looking at the 12z GFS, its much more agressive - look at the 500 mb pattern on Monday. Looks like a winter type trough. front would make into the central GOM with that set up.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=wnatl&param=500_vort_ht&cycle=12&image=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_wnatl_120_500_vort_ht.gif

the 12Z ECMWF has also come into better agreement with the GFS on this unseasonably strong trough. If you recall just yesterday the ECMWF wasn't showing a trough this amplified. Image in upper-left corner shows the amplification which is at 120 hours corresponding to the GFS image timeframe you posted:

[TheStormExpert]

This is the reason that 2004 is a better analog than 2003 especially with these abnormally strong troughs, 2003 didn't really have that

I remember the strong trough that made Hurricane Charley in Aug. 2004 cross Florida from the west. But wouldn't stronger troughs mean the U.S. has a better chance of being spared, and allow the Bermuda High to not be as strong? I also do agree with 2004 being a better analog year than 2003. Like I have said somewhere on here before, 2003 had the majority of its major storm recurve out to sea.

[baytownwx]

http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=vQB0o5JUF88&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DvQB0o5JUF88

Short video from http://HurrTracker.com discussing what the Canadian model shows (which it has now subsequently dropped) vs. what the GFS shows in the coming days. Also speaks briefly about where TC may strike if it forms at all.

[Ivanhater]

Just to be clear, the 12z Canadian did not drop the system, it is just much weaker into the Florida panhandle...

[blp]

Super Long range CFS in case anyone was interested. I normally look at this for the pattern and not specific systems. If you go through several days of loops you can see the dominate High and MDR based development moving beneath the ridge. Shows a threatening pattern for Eastern Carribean.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=noat&MODELL=cfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=396&LOOP=1&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=

[Rgv20]

Just to be clear, the 12z Canadian did not drop the system, it is just much weaker into the Florida panhandle...

That is correct it just has a very very weak system..


The red line in the GOM is the weak system..

[USTropics]

0z CMC tries to develop two separate areas now, both remaining relatively weak. Our first system, the one it has been developing over the past couple of days, is still originating in the northwestern Caribbean. It appears to be tracking more east now, crossing the western tip of Cuba and then interacting with a cold front as it moves up the western side of Florida:



The second system, which you can follow pretty well on the 700mb relative vorticity (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation), appears to originate from this wave:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N44W TO 05N46W MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-11N BETWEEN 39W-48W.

It moves north of the Leeward Islands, into the Bahamas, and towards the east coast.

[N2FSU]

0z CMC tries to develop two separate areas now, both remaining relatively weak. Our first system, the one it has been developing over the past couple of days, is still originating in the northwestern Caribbean. It appears to be tracking more east now, crossing the western tip of Cuba and then interacting with a cold front as it moves up the western side of Florida:

00Z CMC; 126hr

[weatherwindow]

As mentioned earlier, biweekly postings of the CFSv2(Tues 00Z and Thurs 00Z) will continue. As blp noted in an earlier post, the Tues run continues the trend of a robust Bermuda high dominating the much of the basin. Its somewhat more northwesterly position has positive implications for midocean cyclogenesis in addition to a more westerly tracking regime for the southeast US and Florida coasts. A continuing series of anomolously active, unstable AEWs transit the MDR and provide potential triggers for early Cape Verde activity.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... -mid-july/
Items of interest include two Cape Verde systems. The first approaches the northeastern Caribbean on 7/12 and impacts Puerto Rico on 7/13. Continuing on a wnw to nw track the cyclone crosses the northwest Bahamas and, skirting the southeast coast, landfall the Outer Banks on 7/18 and the Canadian Maritimes on 7/20. A second weaker system follows 10 days later and on a similiar course. Crossing the Leeward Islands on 7/21 and Puerto Rico on 7/23, it reaches the northwest Bahamas on 7/25. Paralleling the southeast coast, it skirts the Outer Banks on 7/27 and impacts the Canadian Maritimes on 7/29. July ended and the model run ends on 8/9 with the strong, north trending ridging dominating the entire basin. The Azores/Bermuda high is "large and in charge"....Greetings from Key West, Rich
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/ ... RES=0&WMO=

[thetruesms]

GFS Ensembles continue to show a high chance of TC Formation in the BOC in the 5 to 10 day range....Most of the ensemble show the same faith as Barry but maybe a tad more north. Hopefully this tropical air mass can sneak its way up to South Texas and bring us some much needed Rain


0zGFS Ensembles
http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h62/cantu5977/Texas%20Summer%202013/genprob_zps185418fc.png


6zGFS Ensembles
http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h62/cantu5977/Texas%20Summer%202013/genprob_zpsc5a53f54.png

I know the link for this product has popped up around s2k somewhere or other, but for the life of me I can't find it now. Care to share, please?

[wxman57]

Here's the link:

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/

Click the time period (model run) on the left and scroll down to the second table below "Atlantic Ocean Basin: Model Storm Tracks and Genesis Probabilities". Under the column NCEP Ens you'll see the 3 genesis probability graphics.

[thetruesms]

Thank you for that. When I clicked the link, it turned out I have it bookmarked . . . somewhere. Pretty clear sign that I need to go back and do some better bookmark organizing

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, the trend in the longer range model runs seemingly hints that the Bermuda High will be in its typical standard position, even possibly strengthening as we progress into July. If that trend holds, that is potential ominous news for Florida and the Southeast Atlantic region as we approach the the start of the Cape Verde season. Definitely something to keep monitoring.

[tailgater]

I haven't looked at the model runs yet but I feel sure, none of them are showing much of anything, just by by the quietness of this thread

[cycloneye]

I haven't looked at the model runs yet but I feel sure, none of them are showing much of anything, just by by the quietness of this thread

That is right. But I suspect that in the next week or two the models will begin to latch on something somewhere in the North Atlantic Basin as things will gradually turn more favorable.

[Ivanhater]

Very impressive wave for the first month of hurricane season coming off Africa

[somethingfunny]

Since my favorite models site went behind a paywall ( ) I'm going to just assume the models have backed off from this storm because this thread has gotten very quiet.