How many named systems will form in July?

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jun 27, 2013 3:32 pm

Good question poll to see how the members think about how active July may turn out in the North Atlantic Basin.To make it a complete poll I added the none will form option. If members want to make comments about what to expect in July go ahead.

This poll is for only one vote per member and closes on the 4th of July at 4:32 pm EDT.

I voted for 2 with one being a Hurricane.

SouthFloridian92 · #2 Postby **SouthFloridian92** » Thu Jun 27, 2013 3:35 pm

2 named storms with no hurricanes.

#3 Postby **Andrew92** » Thu Jun 27, 2013 3:53 pm

I'm going with 3. I think Chantal will form next week in either the western Caribbean or now more likely the Bay of Campeche, which would certainly increase the chances of a couple more storms for the remainder of the month after that. I also still am going with my theory of a Caribbean to Gulf of Mexico minimal hurricane during the early to middle portion of the month (Dorian). And I just get a feeling we could see Erin sometime during the month too, probably middle to late part of the month.

One or two of these storms will become hurricanes. Obviously I'm bound to Dorian, but also Erin could make a run for it.

-Andrew92

floridasun78 · #4 Postby **floridasun78** » Thu Jun 27, 2013 4:19 pm

i think two system because i see shear still got tropical under it control it may not go down untill last july

TheStormExpert · #5 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Thu Jun 27, 2013 4:24 pm

I went ahead and voted for 3 named storms, with 1 possibly becoming a hurricane mid-late July. I also expect one of the storms to maybe make landfall in the U.S. but I also wouldn't be surprised to not see any U.S. landfalls this month. August, September, and October will be the months that feature all of the threats that forecasters, meteorologist, ect. are expecting may occur.

RainbowAppleJackDash · #6 Postby **RainbowAppleJackDash** » Thu Jun 27, 2013 5:06 pm

2. Chantal and Dozza Grey cast my vote. Chantal is a cat 1. Dozza is a TS. August will see the biggun's like Humberto and Ingrid and Karen and da kind bro

#7 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jun 27, 2013 5:11 pm

RainbowAppleJackDash wrote:2. Chantal and Dozza Grey cast my vote. Chantal is a cat 1. Dozza is a TS. August will see the biggun's like Humberto and Ingrid and Karen and da kind bro

When the poll for August is up you can express your opinion but let's not go ahead in time and stick with the topic on hand and that is how many systems will form in July.

RainbowAppleJackDash · #8 Postby **RainbowAppleJackDash** » Thu Jun 27, 2013 5:12 pm

cycloneye wrote:
RainbowAppleJackDash wrote:2. Chantal and Dozza Grey cast my vote. Chantal is a cat 1. Dozza is a TS. August will see the biggun's like Humberto and Ingrid and Karen and da kind bro

When the poll for August is up you can express your opinion but let's not go ahead in time and stick with the topic on hand and that is how many systems will form in July.

k.

#9 Postby **gigabite** » Thu Jun 27, 2013 5:49 pm

My 2011 analog indicates 4, but it looks like the Moon will be pulling dust as the path crosses the Sahara. The Inter-tropical convergence zone has to have clouds for any kind of spin-up. This year is experiencing the lowest high latitude runs in several decades. That may be the root cause of the active Hadley Circulation. I'm saying 3 with the first being around the 5 and 11.

#10 Postby **ozonepete** » Thu Jun 27, 2013 8:29 pm

I had to go high (5) with the MJO going very positive and shear dropping off at times very early in some areas.

hurricanehunter69 · #11 Postby **hurricanehunter69** » Thu Jun 27, 2013 10:43 pm

I'll go with four. I'm betting on the cape verde season starting early this year.

#12 Postby **Trader Ron** » Fri Jun 28, 2013 7:10 am

Two. One Tropical Storm and one Hurricane.

#13 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Jun 28, 2013 9:26 am

One, maybe. August and September should be quite active with 5-7 storms each month.

Janie2006 · #14 Postby **Janie2006** » Fri Jun 28, 2013 9:29 am

Hrmph. I ended up in the middle. Given the indicators and current trends, I went with three named storms....but one hurricane toward the end of the month.

#15 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 01, 2013 4:26 pm

Those who still have not voted don't forget to do so before the poll closes on the 4th of July at 4:32 PM EDT.

#16 Postby **lilybeth** » Mon Jul 01, 2013 7:12 pm

I voted four but I only think one will be named and it will be towards the mid-end of the month.

#17 Postby **NDG** » Mon Jul 01, 2013 7:17 pm

I voted for one, very hostile conditions through at least the first half of the month if not the first 3 weeks.

#18 Postby **angelwing** » Mon Jul 01, 2013 9:26 pm

4...no reason, just a feeling

beoumont · #19 Postby **beoumont** » Tue Jul 02, 2013 12:09 am

2. Both the last week of the month. Climatology in an above average year.

Kalrany · #20 Postby **Kalrany** » Tue Jul 02, 2013 10:42 am

voted for 1 -- mostly just becuase i am hoping for as few as possible, but not really believing that would not be at least 1 in July.