Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[rockyman]

Looking at this 5 day shear animation, it appears that the southern part of the wave is "bringing" along better conditions. Once it hits the East Caribbean brick wall, it's likely to begin falling apart:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... tjava.html

[SouthFloridawx]

Key words were 48 hours from now according to the GFS.

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[rockyman]

The 12z CMC is very similar to the 0z...pulling apart the system:

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/CMC/201 ... .anim.html

[rockyman]

Looks like this system has just hit the shear wall (note the "streaks" in the clouds):

[rockyman]

Vorticity moving WNW and strengthening:

[rockyman]

Shear dropping over Trinidad area:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

(dashed line is decreasing shear)

24 hours ago vs now

[Gustywind]

Meteo-France has issued a yellow alert for Martinica and Guadeloupe for a risk of strong showers and tstorms due to an active twave. This bad weather is expected to spread till Sunday given the latest weather forecast. I will keep you informed if anything happens here.

Gustywind

[rockyman]

The spin on this wave is becoming more pronounced on MIMIC:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

[rockyman]

The 18z GFS brings the system into the southeastern Caribbean, then washes it out south of Hispaniola:

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFS/201 ... .anim.html

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 20 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[rockyman]

System has slowed down slightly (per 8pm TWO)

[rockyman]

8pm TWD: TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N54W TO 5N59W MOVING WNW AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A LARGE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CLEAR CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N- 19N BETWEEN 51W-60W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 60W- 63W.

[floridasun78]

this same wave on other topic ?

[rockyman]

Low level convergence and vorticity have decreased this evening, while midlevel vorticity has increased...so as the system is "growing taller", it's also unwinding. Let's see what happens overnight.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[gatorcane]

Latest Infrared SAT image. The wave is flaring up nicely this evening:

[Gustywind]

Latest Infrared SAT image. The wave is flaring up nicely this evening:

Gatorcane you have posted the same picture on another thread " Tropical wave in western caribbean"
Maybe it was a mistake from you . Did you notice that?

[cycloneye]

Wave has begun to interact with the TUTT Trough to it's north and that is why it has expanded it's area of showers and thunderstorms to the north.

[Gustywind]

Wave has begun to interact with the TUTT Trough to it's north and that is why it has expanded it's area of showers and thunderstorms to the north.

Interresting fact Cycloneye. Looks like much of the islands of the EC could deal with numerous Pockets of showers and tstorms.

[rockyman]

Watching the MIMIC loops, it looks like the South American continent helped the wave to start spinning, much like the "Bay of Campeche Effect".

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

[Hurricane Andrew]

Looks kind of interesting...