WTPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (RUMBIA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 12.0N 125.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N 125.4E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 13.5N 123.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 15 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 15.3N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 15 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 17.1N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 18.9N 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 14 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 23.1N 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 26.0N 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 124.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 06W (RUMBIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 301 NM EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 290000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z
AND 300300Z.//
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PROGNOSTIC REASONINGWDPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (RUMBIA) WARNING NR
05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 06W (RUMBIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 301 NM EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
MOVED OVER SAMAR ISLAND, PHILIPPINES AND HAS BECOME MARGINALLY LESS
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. PREDOMINANTLY, THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES OF
THE SYSTEM, SUPPORTED BY POSSIBLE OROGRAPHIC LIFTING OVER THE
ISLANDS. THE CURRENT POSITION HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY BUT
IS SUPPORTED BY A POSITION FIX FROM PGTW AND A 282333Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
PASS. INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 35 KNOTS BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE LLCC HAS BEEN TRACKING
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE ISLANDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) ARE VERY FAVORABLE AT 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A DECAYING TUTT CELL LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND ELONGATE.
THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT OF THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS THE
SEPARATION OF THE TUTT CELL AND THE LLCC INCREASES. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS IN
PHASE WITH THE DEEP EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 06W WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR,
TRACKING THROUGH THE PHILIPPINES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) AND
EVENTUALLY INTO MAINLAND CHINA SLIGHTLY BEFORE TAU 72. THE CURRENT
FORECAST INDICATES A STEADY INTENSITY TREND OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE PHILIPPINES. A RE-ORGANIZATION OF THE
LLCC IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT (GOOD SSTS) OF THE SCS, WITH INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SECOND LANDFALL INTO CHINA. A MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WILL HINDER RAPID DEVELOPMENT, BUT THE SYSTEM IS STILL
EXPECTED TO REACH STRONG TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 06W IS FORECAST TO BE OVER MAINLAND CHINA,
JUST TO THE WEST OF HONG KONG. INCREASING VWS AND THE FRICTIONAL
EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH LAND WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, WITH FULL
DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 96. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 72, BUT INDICATES SOME VARIATION AFTER
LANDFALL. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF CONSENSUS AT TAUS
72 AND 96 TO ACCOUNT FOR A SHIFT IN STEERING INFLUENCE FROM MID- TO
LOW-LEVELS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST DUE TO
THE WELL-ESTABLISHED TRACKING MECHANISM.//
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