Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Might have to watch it when it interacts with the convectively-coupled Kelvin Wave/upward pulse of the MJO in the western Caribbean in a few days. Until then, it's no concern for development.

[bamajammer4eva]

Wonder if they are looking at this and thus the mention in TWO??

[ozonepete]

Well I don't know if this wave will survive the long trek through killing shear and make it into the western Caribbean, but I sure hope it doesn't! Look at the size of this - just gigantic. I can't remember seeing a tropical wave (with that much convection) that extensive from north to south in a long time, if ever. It looks more like the reverse image of a cold front going across the U.S. Plains.

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 290518
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 20 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA THROUGH THIS MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 290555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N55W
13N58W...INTO EASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 8N60W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 15 TO
20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 53W AND 57W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 20N52W 15N57W 11N63W.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 20 MPH.
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHERN
COAST OF VENEZUELA TODAY...AND OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS BY SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 291145
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013


AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE
IS ALONG 18N56W 15N60W...INTO EASTERN VENEZUELA
NEAR 8N62W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N TO 21N BETWEEN
52W AND 60W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W.

[Gustywind]

A quick but solid line of showers is spreading in my area with some gusts.
Looks this twave continues it approach in vicinity of the EC islands and should bring more showers and tstorms during the next couple of hours.

[SFLcane]

very hostile out there dont see development anytime soon. Some chance possibly in western caribbean.

[Aric Dunn]

though shear is high visible showing a weak possibly closed low. should have a chance once in western carrib.

[cycloneye]

though shear is high visible showing a weak possibly closed low. should have a chance once in western carrib.

Yes.

[rockyman]

2pm TWD: A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE FOR THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON HAS ENTERED THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IS VIVIDLY OBSERVED ALONG A POSITION FROM JUST W OF GAUDELOUPE TO WEAKENING LOW PRES OF 1012 MB AT 12N64W...AND TO INLAND VENEZUELA TO 09N65W. THE WAVE WAS PLACED AT THIS POSITION BASED ON ISLAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS WELL NEARBY BUOY REPORTS. IT IS MOVING IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION AT ABOUT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO COINCIDES WITH A LARGE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE COMPOSITE WATER IMAGERY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NRN PORTION WHICH APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING IN MOISTURE CONTENT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 09N-15N BETWEEN 55W-62W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS SHEARING OFF TO THE NE FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 54W-58W. THE 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[floridasun78]

their low in wave report by nhc but their say 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 291734
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL
CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON
SUNDAY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[SouthFloridawx]

Shear values are starting to fall in the Caribbean as the GFS was indicating in my previous post.



This is the 12Z 250mb Wind Heights +24 hours.



This is also the 12Z GFS 500mb winds and vorticity. As you can see not much as far as winds in the mid levels.

[SouthFloridawx]

Although the shear values could potentially be dropping in the near future, it seems like there is a lack of Low Level Convergence.

[floridasun78]

Shear values are starting to fall in the Caribbean as the GFS was indicating in my previous post.



This is the 12Z 250mb Wind Heights +24 hours.



This is also the 12Z GFS 500mb winds and vorticity. As you can see not much as far as winds in the mid levels.

that upper low need to leave for shear drop

[ozonepete]

I was wondering if that wave is splitting, with 2 centers developing. You can see 2 areas of vorticity that go from 850 mb up to 500mb now - one moving into the eastern Carib and the other northeast of the islands. Interestingly, the low on the wave which is moving into the Caribbean is forecast to dissipate, while it looks like more vorticity is persisting in the area of spin to the northeast. I wonder if these will both survive as separate entities. Note that only the circulation to the northeast has both upper convergence and lower divergence associated with it. A complex situation.



850 mb vorticity:


700 mb vorticity:


500 mb vorticity:


lower convergence:


upper divergence:

[Dean4Storms]

Don't see much of a chance with all the westerly shear at least until the western Carib. Sea ....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html

[ozonepete]

Yup. I would also agree with Aric that it looks like this faster moving eastern Carib wave could catch the very slow moving western Carib wave in a couple of days just as shear drops a lot. That would make development much more possible.