Texas Summer - 2013

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#101 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jun 26, 2013 12:00 pm

It's interesting that the latest model runs have trended to retrograding the trough to our region and sticking it there with the Bermuda high moving in from the Atlantic. With high pressure on each coast that bodes well for Texas. If that is the case perhaps we can continue those daily rain chances with some kind of a cutoff and lower pressures over the state well beyond early next week.
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Re: Texas Summer - 2013

#102 Postby Tireman4 » Wed Jun 26, 2013 12:57 pm

Portastorm wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Overnight GFS still going with 105 degrees for IAH on Saturday. That should be just about warm enough.


Now this is really YOUR kind of weather, isn't it?! :lol:


Oh yeah. Summer 2011 was the high point of his life. The man was just about beside himself. He speaks of it fondly to this day. Let me quote our illustrious Porta that year:

Worst. Summer. Ever.
(For you newbies, this thread was just part of the pain we went through. Notice my frustration....lol
viewtopic.php?f=24&t=111338&p=2162551&hilit=texas+summer+2011#p2162551)

Thank you.

Edit:

And for you newbies, the Infamous High Pressure of Death that year "ate" a tropical storm (Don). So yeah, Wxman 57 was in his heyday then.
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Re: Texas Summer - 2013

#103 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jun 26, 2013 4:24 pm

Snippet from FW this afternoon.

***

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO
THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE...FOLLOWED BY LOW-END RAIN CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND AND COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. THE BRUNT OF THE
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE COUNTRY WHERE UPPER TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE. NORTH TEXAS WILL
RESIDE BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND RIDGE TO THE
WEST...RESULTING IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES RIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO TEXAS...IN
EFFECT DEEPENING THE EAST COAST TROUGH...A RARE SUMMER COLD AIR
ADVECTION REGIME WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY.


***


So I decided to go through pattern analogs (2007, 2009, 2004 are among them) and the way things are set up seems similar next week. What I did notice is that the pattern tended to involve a cutoff low somewhere in the central/southern plains that at times had warm-core characteristics. Models don't show any such feature at this time but I would not be surprised to see something get stuck in the flow near us especially if the ridge pinches off into some kind of a rex block in the Pac NW.

Image
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Re: Texas Summer - 2013

#104 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Jun 26, 2013 4:52 pm

Here is my latest weather article! Hopefully we will get some heat relief soon!
http://www.examiner.com/article/rare-ju ... f-to-texas
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#105 Postby Tireman4 » Wed Jun 26, 2013 4:59 pm

And yet, (I think) HGX is downplaying it....


THERE WAS SOME DISCUSSION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMING INTO SE TX
SAT INTO SUN. WHILE THERE IS CERTAINLY NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
AIRMASS AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...MAY GET SOME DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION AS A RESULT. AS WITH ANY BOUNDARY IN THE SUMMER
TIME...MAY GET SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS IS STILL A BIT
OF A QUESTION. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SEEMS NEUTRAL AS FAR AS LIFT IS
CONCERNED BUT STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TROUGHING INSTEAD OF
THE RIDGE AS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES MORE OVER THE WEEKEND. THINK 20
POPS ARE ENOUGH TO COVER AS DEEP MOISTURE IS REALLY LACKING A BIT.
PRECIP WATER VALUES MAY REACH 1.5-1.6 INCHES WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR A FEW ISO STORMS BUT REALLY DO NOT SEE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
CHANCES. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...DO GET A BIT OF AN INVERTED
V SHAPE IN THE LOW LEVELS SO IF A STORM DOES DEVELOP COULD SEE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS BEING AN ISSUE. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT GREAT
SO THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LOW. BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK SO WILL AT LEAST HINT AT RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVEN RETROGRADES SOME. LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT DO NOT
SUPPORT THE EARLY FORECAST HIGH TEMPS SO BACKED OFF SOME ON UPPER
90S FOR MAX TEMPS WITH THE FRONT. THAT SAID STILL WENT ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BECAUSE DRIER AIR WILL HEAT UP
QUICKLY ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL IS LACKING. ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON TEMPS AT GLS. POSSIBLE OFFSHORE WINDS FOR THE WEEKEND COULD
KEEP THE ISLAND IN THE MID 90S NEAR RECORDS. MIN TEMPS MAY BE WARM
TO START THE FORECAST BUT COULD ALSO COOL A BIT WITH THE DRIER AIR
AND WEAK WINDS BEHIND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
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Re: Texas Summer - 2013

#106 Postby Nikki » Wed Jun 26, 2013 5:45 pm

I am headed out in about an hour or so to Sophia, NC where the high's will be in the 80's and the low's will be in the upper 60 to lower 70 range.... :cold: LOL

I promise to try to bring it back with me to Texas!!!!!
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Re: Texas Summer - 2013

#107 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Jun 26, 2013 6:55 pm

Nikki wrote:I am headed out in about an hour or so to Sophia, NC where the high's will be in the 80's and the low's will be in the upper 60 to lower 70 range.... :cold: LOL

I promise to try to bring it back with me to Texas!!!!!

Girl, you better rope that weather, tie it to the back of your vehicle and drag it back kicking and screaming!! :cheesy: No fair leaving us alone here with the triple digits!! :P :roll:
Have a safe and fun time!!
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Re: Texas Summer - 2013

#108 Postby Nikki » Wed Jun 26, 2013 7:40 pm

Thank you!!!! I will talk to you all again after July 7th!!!!


You all have a wonderful 4th of July!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :flag: :flag: :flag:
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Re: Texas Summer - 2013

#109 Postby Portastorm » Thu Jun 27, 2013 9:23 am

Fellow Texans, it looks like we have three days of crazy heat ahead and then it begins to unravel into a cooler, wetter pattern. Both the GFS and Euro have been consistent in showing this. I'm encouraged by what I'm seeing and think we'll start getting some decent rains next week. Hang in there and hydrate, hydrate, hydrate!
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Re: Texas Summer - 2013

#110 Postby weatherdude1108 » Thu Jun 27, 2013 10:33 am

Portastorm wrote:Fellow Texans, it looks like we have three days of crazy heat ahead and then it begins to unravel into a cooler, wetter pattern. Both the GFS and Euro have been consistent in showing this. I'm encouraged by what I'm seeing and think we'll start getting some decent rains next week. Hang in there and hydrate, hydrate, hydrate!

:uarrow: Please please please!!
:rain:
Just illustrating your point, just because. :D

I'll tough it out.
After all, we made it through the multi-month BLAST FURNACE of 2011. :red:
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#111 Postby Rgv20 » Fri Jun 28, 2013 9:53 am

NWS Brownsville morning discussion....Rain! Front near by!?!?

HOWEVER...THE REAL BOOST
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR DUE TO THE TUESDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...AN EVENT
SHOWN ROBUSTLY IN THE GFS MODEL AND LESS SO IN THE EUROPEAN MODEL.
THIS FRONT HAS BEEN ON THE RADAR...SO TO SPEAK...FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS...BUT WAS NOT REALLY INDICATED TO PASS THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. NOW...THE POTENTIAL STALLING OF THIS
FRONT NEARBY...COUPLED WITH A SURGE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
TO AROUND 2 INCHES...MAY BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
WEEKS...AND THEREFORE HAVE INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN INDICATED IN THE FORECAST IS ACTUALLY
WELL BELOW WHAT MOS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING RIGHT NOW...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST...BEYOND MONDAY...IS LOW...AND CHANGES
ARE NO DOUBT FORTHCOMING IN THIS FORECASTER/S MIND.
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#112 Postby weatherdude1108 » Fri Jun 28, 2013 3:50 pm

If this forecast pans out, then :woo:
:rain:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
330 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
PATTERN CHANGE TO AN UNSTABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS BEGINNING
TO TAKE SHAPE
...JUST AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE APPROACHING RECORD
LEVELS FOR TODAY INTO SATURDAY. AN AXIS OF HIGHER MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO POP A FEW HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TX EXTENDING WEST TO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
EARLY THIS EVENING. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10
PERCENT...BUT THE POTENTIAL WIND IMPACT FROM THESE CELLS WARRANT A
MENTION IN THE FORECAST AS THE OUTFLOWS COULD IMPACT A HIGHER
PERCENTAGE OF THE AREA. WILL MENTION ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY OUTFLOWS.

HIGHS FOR SATURDAY COULD WIND UP BEING THE HOTTEST OF THE SEASON
WITH THE RECORDS FOR SATURDAY...JUNE 29 BEING IN JEOPARDY. THE
POOLING OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER TEXAS IS FORECAST BY MOST
MODELS TO INCREASE FURTHER SATURDAY...LEADING TO A BETTER CHANCE
OF STRONG AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES...OFFSETTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE INVERTED-V PATTERN TO EVAPORATE THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR UNCERTAINTIES ON RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURE. THE OVERALL TREND FOR COOLER CONDITIONS WITH EACH DAY IS MORE PROBABLE...BUT CLOUDS AND CONVECTION HANGING OVER SOME AREAS AT NIGHT COULD MAKE WARM MIN TEMPS WHILE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT OVERNIGHT WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DIP BELOW 70 IN SPOTS. A BLEND OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT PRESENT THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINS...BUT THE PATTERN SUGGEST MOSTLY HIT-AND-MISS AIR MASS STORMS PEAKING LATE IN THE DAY IN EARLY EVENING. MODEL CONSENSUS POOLS MOST OF THE MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE INTO MEXICO BY TUESDAY...SO WILL SHOW A DECREASING CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY SHOULD HAVE A FAVORABLE TREND ON TEMPERATURES TO SET UP MILDER WEATHER FOR THE 4TH OF JULY. MID-WEEK HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD FALL BY AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT PROJECTIONS FOR SATURDAY.

LATE IN THE WEEK...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO LOSE
CONSISTENCY AS THEY TRY TO MAKE SENSE OF THE TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A POLAR JET THAT GETS PUSHED WELL INTO CANADA. IN GENERAL...THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE INSTABILITY AND RAIN CHANCES AT A MINIMUM. THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A DEVELOPING HEAVY RAIN PATTERN NEXT WEEKEND IF ORGANIZED MCS SYSTEMS ARE ABLE TO CARVE OUT THIS BROAD TROUGH AND EXPAND ITS INFLUENCE INTO CENTRAL TX.
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#113 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jun 28, 2013 4:10 pm

:uarrow: Models still look fairly dry though for at least 3-4 days. I hope some scattered activity at least happens. Near and after July 4th looks better but that's long range and like in winter we get phantom rain! But I'll take the sub 95 temperatures, for right now it's too dang HOT!
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#114 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jun 29, 2013 12:38 pm

This drier air (50s dewpoint) is much more pleasant! Still hot but I'm not sweating like a cow the moment I go outside and the clouds are such a blessing. Not quite there yet south of I-20 but hopefully the change will be relief for some, I know Austin sure could use it after being over 100+ for many days and a longer string of 99+. Couldn't ask for a better week to have mid to upper 80s for highs with drier air in the summer (July fourth activities)!

FW is mentioning near record lows this week for DFW and Waco
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Re: Texas Summer - 2013

#115 Postby Shoshana » Sat Jun 29, 2013 1:50 pm

As of 12:51 Austin Mabry is registering 105 and 22% humidity. High is supposed to be 106. 'Only' 101 here at the house so I wonder what's going on there today, it's usually hotter here...
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#116 Postby Tireman4 » Sat Jun 29, 2013 3:09 pm

Temperatures as of now:

Houston Bush-105 (Record 102 in 2009)

Houston Hobby-102..(Record 100 in 2009)

It is only 3 pm...Hang on folks....
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#117 Postby Tireman4 » Sat Jun 29, 2013 3:53 pm

By the way, the first "boundary" or whatever has passed IAH. Winds are out of the North. Umm, it is 105..what the heck is going on? (actually I know, but it sure sounds just downright weird)
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Re: Texas Summer - 2013

#118 Postby vbhoutex » Sat Jun 29, 2013 4:02 pm

Currently 107f at IAH!! :firedevil: :firedevil: :firedevil: Is it Winter yet?
Wxman57 must be in eternal bliss just about now. :ggreen: :ggreen:
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Re: Texas Summer - 2013

#119 Postby Portastorm » Sat Jun 29, 2013 4:44 pm

As Tireman4 calls him ... wxman57 ... the Dark Lord of Summer is no doubt in charge of this dreadful, frying pan weather. Officially we hit 108 at Camp Mabry and 107 at the airport ... both record high temperatures for this date.

Sure hope the alleged rain and/or cooler temperatures show up soon.
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#120 Postby gpsnowman » Sat Jun 29, 2013 8:21 pm

:uarrow: So do I, Portastorm. I will be travelling to Houston on Tuesday, Austin on Wed- Fri and then to Caddo Lake on Fri-Sun. It would be so nice to travel across the state with some cool summer weather. Just me and the road, chillin. Highs in the 80's potentially for DFW early next week, with sun!!! How about that for July?
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