Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: Yup. I would also agree with Aric that it looks like this faster moving eastern Carib wave could catch the very slow moving western Carib wave in a couple of days just as shear drops a lot. That would make development much more possible.

yeah hard to say for sure but the added low level vorticity may aid the development of something.. the models though not now showing much have been and even that needs to be kept in mind. the ingredients are clearly there the timing in the models seems to be off enough not to allow development.. however that has happened many times where models have backed off only to then see development. because after all .... all the variables are not possible to calculate for our tech to compute atm.

[StormTracker]

:uarrow: Yup. I would also agree with Aric that it looks like this faster moving eastern Carib wave could catch the very slow moving western Carib wave in a couple of days just as shear drops a lot. That would make development much more possible.

yeah hard to say for sure but the added low level vorticity may aid the development of something.. the models though not now showing much have been and even that needs to be kept in mind. the ingredients are clearly there the timing in the models seems to be off enough not to allow development.. however that has happened many times where models have backed off only to then see development. because after all .... all the variables are not possible to calculate for our tech to compute atm.

I don't like this setup! Too many unknown variables/no model support! This is unfortunately not smelling "fishy"! Pun intended!!!

Aric, can you post steering patterns for the upcoming week if in fact this/these systems develop?

[cycloneye]

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE DIMINISHED TODAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 TO 20
MPH.

[StormTracker]

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE DIMINISHED TODAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 TO 20
MPH.

Cycloneye, are you trying to make me feel better about this?

[Hurricaneman]

I think this needs to watched especially if it gets north of the heavy shear

[ozonepete]

:uarrow: Yup. I would also agree with Aric that it looks like this faster moving eastern Carib wave could catch the very slow moving western Carib wave in a couple of days just as shear drops a lot. That would make development much more possible.

yeah hard to say for sure but the added low level vorticity may aid the development of something.. the models though not now showing much have been and even that needs to be kept in mind. the ingredients are clearly there the timing in the models seems to be off enough not to allow development.. however that has happened many times where models have backed off only to then see development. because after all .... all the variables are not possible to calculate for our tech to compute atm.

Absolutely. The models are just not yet capable of handling development situations well. And that's almost entirely (I know you know, Aric) because we don't have much observations over the open water (both surface and upper air) and the models cannot "see" down to such small areas as they need to - the smallest grid area they can look at is too large to see small circulations popping up and dissipating. Both will be solved eventually, but for now we can still see some things by looking at the data that they can't.

[Hurricaneman]

:uarrow: Yup. I would also agree with Aric that it looks like this faster moving eastern Carib wave could catch the very slow moving western Carib wave in a couple of days just as shear drops a lot. That would make development much more possible.

yeah hard to say for sure but the added low level vorticity may aid the development of something.. the models though not now showing much have been and even that needs to be kept in mind. the ingredients are clearly there the timing in the models seems to be off enough not to allow development.. however that has happened many times where models have backed off only to then see development. because after all .... all the variables are not possible to calculate for our tech to compute atm.

Absolutely. The models are just not yet capable of handling development situations well. And that's almost entirely (I know you know, Aric) because we don't have much observations over the open water (both surface and upper air) and the models cannot "see" down to such small areas as they need to - the smallest grid area they can look at is too large to see small circulations popping up and dissipating. Both will be solved eventually, but for now we can still see some things by looking at the data that they can't.

The models have always had trouble with tropical development due to this reason, it saw in 2007 Felix and Dean as tropical depressions when they were cat 5s, so just because a model doesn't show it doesn't mean it cant develop, this as said above if it can get north of the shear zone with the northern area of vorticity with this wave could develop especially north of the islands

[gatorcane]

Hurricaneman, that is true about Dean and Feliz but the global models have improved since then. If none of the global models are calling for any development whatsoever within about the 7 day timeframe (144 hours), not even a depression, I find they are almost always correct. While the models do miss complex situations, they also get alot of complex situations correct and "see" things in the future we humans can't because of all the data they process.

That said, not really feeling optimistic about this wave either. Conditions continue to be hostile across all of the the Caribbean and even BOC for development. TUTT lows are firmly in control. But hey it's only the end of June...give it some time...

[Aric Dunn]

Hurricaneman, that is true about Dean and Feliz but the global models have improved since then. If none of the global models are calling for any development whatsoever within about the 7 day timeframe (144 hours), not even a depression, I find they are almost always correct. While the models do miss complex situations, they also get alot of complex situations correct and "see" things in the future we humans can't because of all the data they process.

That said, not really feeling optimistic about this wave either. Conditions continue to be hostile across all of the the Caribbean and even BOC for development. TUTT lows are firmly in control. But hey it's only the end of June...give it some time...

true though all needs to be watched

[SouthFloridawx]

We will know for sure in the next 24 hours, if those shear values actually drop.

:uarrow: Yup. I would also agree with Aric that it looks like this faster moving eastern Carib wave could catch the very slow moving western Carib wave in a couple of days just as shear drops a lot. That would make development much more possible.

[ozonepete]

Well, even 48 hours. Those are vigorous waves and will probably maintain a couple of days at least, even under that heavy shear. I'm curious if the models from tonight or tomorrow morning will do anything more with them now that they'll get a little more and a little better observational data to initiate with.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 300602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013


AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE
IS ALONG 20N61W 16N64W 11N65W. THE WAVE IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE AREA OF THE 24N66W 11N67W MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 60W
FROM 14N TO 15N. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF
22N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
14N TO 22N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.