Tropical Wave in Western Caribbean

[MississippiWx]

It's a possibility that a piece of this tropical wave breaks off and moves to the northwest towards the weakness over the Northern Gulf Coast. The GFS and other models have been showing a trof-split situation where high pressure builds in to the north and northeast of a weakening trough. This should leave lower pressures along the Northern Gulf Coast. The GFS shows a bit of energy from the wave in the Western Caribbean combining with a disturbance in the Northern Gulf to create an area of enhanced vorticity (possible surface low) around the Wednesday/Thursday time frame. Whatever it is should have limited time over water, however.



This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

No more mention of Western Caribbean wave.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[N2FSU]

The GFS shows a bit of energy from the wave in the Western Caribbean combining with a disturbance in the Northern Gulf to create an area of enhanced vorticity (possible surface low) around the Wednesday/Thursday time frame. Whatever it is should have limited time over water, however.

00Z CMC shows this on July 4 (114hr):

[N2FSU]

Moving into western Florida Panhandle at 120 hr:

[Hurricaneman]

The 18zGFS start developing a low with this wave at 102hrs so it needs to be monitored later this week for possible development, but if it develops it will be lopsided by shear

[Dean4Storms]

The 18zGFS start developing a low with this wave at 102hrs so it needs to be monitored later this week for possible development, but if it develops it will be lopsided by shear

I must be looking at a different 18z GFS run or you are one. I don't see a low depicted.

[Hurricaneman]

The 18zGFS start developing a low with this wave at 102hrs so it needs to be monitored later this week for possible development, but if it develops it will be lopsided by shear

I must be looking at a different 18z GFS run or you are one. I don't see a low depicted.

Bay of Campeche, 1009mb low

[ROCK]

shear doesnt look all that bad in the GOM right now.....ULL over the Yucatan helping the wave maintain convection. Like I said in the other thread, now the 18Z NAVGEM has latched on to something in the BOC in the medium range. Bears watching....

[Dean4Storms]

The 18zGFS start developing a low with this wave at 102hrs so it needs to be monitored later this week for possible development, but if it develops it will be lopsided by shear

I must be looking at a different 18z GFS run or you are one. I don't see a low depicted.

Bay of Campeche, 1009mb low

Oh the BOC, I thought you were talking about the low the Canadian depicts south of the FL Panhandle. My Bad!

[Gustywind]

Guadeloupe back off the yellow alert for green code since 5PM . Rain has stopped and things are improving.

[rockyman]

Some low level vorticity forming over the western tip of Cuba:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[Hurricane Andrew]

shear doesnt look all that bad in the GOM right now.....ULL over the Yucatan helping the wave maintain convection. Like I said in the other thread, now the 18Z NAVGEM has latched on to something in the BOC in the medium range. Bears watching....

The Ex-NOGAPS?

[Dean4Storms]

You know, this upper level low in the Gulf just north of the Yucatan peninsula is about to be impacted by this TW. I wonder if this feature becomes the surface low the Canadian see's developing. Not out of the question that if convection gets to firing with this ULL that a surface low tries to form. Weird setup for sure!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html


You can see it in this visual as well.....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Some low level vorticity forming over the western tip of Cuba:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

I was noticing that this evening big blow up of intense thunder storm over western Cuba and the straits.