Global model runs discussion

[NDG]

00Z CMC at 120hr:

https://imageshack.com/scaled/large/577/2p85.png

GEM/CMC is out of its mind, there is no way anything would form that far north underneath the trough/shear axis, IMO.

[Hurricaneman]

The 12zGFS shows a low developing in 11 days in the western Caribbean and sends it towards Louisiana, the first time its shown this, lets hope it doesnt show up in the next several runs or it could be a possibility

After 348 it sends it to Mexico

[cycloneye]

The 12zGFS shows a low developing in 11 days in the western Caribbean and sends it towards Louisiana, the first time its shown this, lets hope it doesnt show up in the next several runs or it could be a possibility

GFS wakes up but is very long range.Let's see as you said if the next runs have this.

[Hurricaneman]

I did forget that the 0zEuro showed lowering pressures at day 10 so it looks like there is a consensus that there will be lowering pressures by day 10 near so the Caribbean will be the place to watch at day 10 to 15

[SFLcane]

12z canadian has a 05 rita type track through the straits then into gulf.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2013063012/gem_mslp_pcpn_watl.html

[LaBreeze]

12z canadian has a 05 rita type track through the straits then into gulf.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2013063012/gem_mslp_pcpn_watl.html

How much faith do you have in the Canadian model SFLcane?

[Hurricaneman]

The 12zEuro shows lower pressures in the Caribbean at 216 which means it is indeed moving up in the timetable which means this is becoming a possible timetable for a tropical low of some kind around 9 days

[SFLcane]

12z canadian has a 05 rita type track through the straits then into gulf.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2013063012/gem_mslp_pcpn_watl.html

How much faith do you have in the Canadian model SFLcane?

Not much more then likely just another one its phantom storms. Dont think we will see much till late july early august.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Anyone else notice that CMC low comes from the Central Atlantic, moving WSW to SW?

LOL

[Steve H.]

yeah, check out that wave in the eastern Atlantic. Gaining amplitude and showing some semblance of a circulation. Not saying this will develop, but maybe a precursor to what is ahead once the upper level winds drop off.

[Ntxw]

I think we are rushing the judgement too much on activity. Last week we (wxman57 reiterated this statement 15 days after EPAC activity) were looking at early to mid July for an uptick. We are still in the final day of June so lets not rush to say all is dead. Models don't show it right now but I have a good feeling something will happen soon, whether in the model world or surprise activity.

MJO is flaring through Africa and will soon reach the Indian Ocean. The stuff over Africa now will likely maintain themselves once this happens while the EPAC quiets down and the ITCZ should begin it's trip into the more favored areas. Whether or not something develops will depend on upper air conditions through the Atlantic basin but instability and lower pressures should improve with the IO convection-to-be.

This is on the assumption the MJO will maintain itself, some models do kill it off into the dead circle, which if that pans then likely not much will come out but at this time most models don't support that idea yet.

[MississippiWx]

12z canadian has a 05 rita type track through the straits then into gulf.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2013063012/gem_mslp_pcpn_watl.html

How much faith do you have in the Canadian model SFLcane?

Not much more then likely just another one its phantom storms. Dont think we will see much till late july early august.

Phantom storm is about right. It forms from the tail end of a trough that gets cut off from the west to east flow in the mid-latitudes as high pressure builds in from the northeast. Guess it's technically possible, but this seems like one of the CMC's infamous phantom storms.


Here it is getting cut-off from the main trough:

[ROCK]

I think its safe to say the GOM has plenty of petrol for anythng that does develope. Record heat here in Texas.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[ROCK]

quote="SFLcane"][quote="LaBreeze"][quote="SFLcane"]12z canadian has a 05 rita type track through the straits then into gulf.

Phantom storm is about right. It forms from the tail end of a trough that gets cut off from the west to east flow in the mid-latitudes as high pressure builds in from the northeast. Guess it's technically possible, but this seems like one of the CMC's infamous phantom storms.




though Ike was not a cut off low it formed in the high lats and dived SW. So from that aspect a storm can make that kind of track. I wouldnt discount the CMC just yet. It has gotten a lot better.

[hurricanehunter69]

12z GFS still shows a possible named storm (in the BOC ) around the 4th of July weekend. A Hurricane following the same path, and a possible cape verde storm at the end of the run. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php

[ROCK]

NAVGEM (NOGAPS) also in with the 12Z GFS with a western GOM issue. Not very strong though but it is in the mid-range.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/navgemtc ... =Animation

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Hurricaneman]

the 18zGFS killed off the long range system the 12z had, but still has lower than normal pressures so that area may still have to be watched

[RL3AO]

Everybody take a zanex and check back in a few weeks.

[rockyman]

Here's the 12z CMC 500mb (mid-level) loop...showing the system that is CURRENTLY swirling over the central Atlantic, moving SW toward south Florida:

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/CMC/201 ... .anim.html

Whether or not this comes to pass, it's interesting that the Canadian's "future hurricane" forms from a feature that is already on the map.

[cycloneye]

We have been discussing about future scenarios in the BOC / Caribbean and maybe the MDR but guess what folks,we may have another area to watch in coming days and that is in the Subtropical Atlantic. Here is Levi Cowan Tweet about this.

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 1h
Interesting trough-split SE of Bermuda will have to be watched as it comes west towards Bahamas this weekend.

https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits