Northern GOM

[tailgater]

As the front drops down this weekend, the GOMers MAY have something to watch as a poster mentioned in the Global models runs thread, earlier this week.
Some the US non tropical models are hinting at a Weak non tropical low, droping into the Gulf Of Mexico near Penacola and meandering for a couple days before washing out.

Maybe a little something to watch until July gets here.

[tropicwatch]

We will have to see if the storms hang around for a couple of days in the GOM. The pressures are falling, the lowest I have found is 1009 in Aplachicola.

[Hurricaneman]

the problem for tropical development if you look at the GFS is it moves inland before any development can take place so in any case it leads to lots of rain but if it develops over 100 miles to the south of where modeled by the GFS it has a good chance at development

[underthwx]

Nws Houston disc. thinkin rain late late next week?...

[NDG]

With the deep trough dropping down the MS river valley next week there is going to be too much shear across the northern GOM, any development if at all will be in the southern GOM/BOC area late next week as the trough starts lifting.

[chaser1]

Bear Watching? "shear" insanity LOL

[vbhoutex]

As the front drops down this weekend, the GOMers MAY have something to watch as a poster mentioned in the Global models runs thread, earlier this week.
Some the US non tropical models are hinting at a Weak non tropical low, droping into the Gulf Of Mexico near Penacola and meandering for a couple days before washing out.

Maybe a little something to watch until July gets here.

First time I saw that happen it turned into Hurricane Alicia(1983) except it was in August. Doesn't seem as likely this time based on the the expected shear, but weirder things have happened.

[N2FSU]

NWS Tallahassee Discussion mentions this weak low forming:

An upper level trough currently resides over the central and
eastern U.S., and is forecast to become more amplified tonight as
it digs into the South tonight and tomorrow. This feature is very
rare for the early summer months, as the upper level flow is
typically much less amplified and weaker in our region around this
time. CAM models are suggesting that similar to last night, scattered
showers and thunderstorms should increase in coverage through the
evening and overnight hours, especially in our coastal regions and
marine zones. Conditions tonight should remain warm and humid,
with lows in the low-mid 70s inland and upper 70s in coastal
regions.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
Upper trough will continue to deepen through Sunday with the axis
extending from southern Indiana to the central Gulf Coast. At the
surface, a weak surface low is forecast to develop over southern
Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle.

[tailgater]

First glance looks like something trying to get going south of Mobile, but the conditions are very hostile.

[Nimbus]

There is some energy in the western Caribbean that may respond to the digging front but lots of shear and dry air in the northern gulf. Might get an invest later in the week after it crosses the Yucatan.

[MississippiWx]

I believe that any Northern Gulf disturbance would have to wait until mid-week to begin organizing. Being on the southeast flank of a trough is not going to help convergence at the surface to get any low spinning. Once the ridge builds in to the north and cuts off the southern end of the trough, the opportunity for a small low pressure area to spin up will increase, especially if a piece of the TW in the W Caribbean breaks off and helps energize the area. Regardless, the time it has over water looks limited.

[gatorcane]

Looks more like a winter-time setup across the GOM with the deep trough digging over the SE United States. Across Florida ahead of the front, the steering flow is strong from SW to NE with windy southerly breezes, something you would see in the winter-time with a front approaching. Quite an impressive trough for late June!

[Ivanhater]

Looking a bit more interesting today...possible NHC might tag this



12z CMC develops it



Rainmaker for sure

[tolakram]

live visible loop, java no longer required: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

[ROCK]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

has some 850MB vort (not much), low level convergence, upper level convergence, shear is light....

[ronjon]

I thought this area might have potential last week but appears to be ULL at 200 mb. Would have to work down to the surface - probably unlikely but not unheard of.

[MississippiWx]

The area of disturbed weather in the Gulf is a lot more interesting today. Seems like a low pressure is developing at the surface underneath the upper level low (will have to keep monitoring vort maps and surface readings). We'll have to see if it's able to remain over water the next few days before moving inland somewhere along the Northern Gulf. What the CMC develops doesn't seem to be the area we are looking at today. The storm the CMC develops in the next couple of days comes off the Yucatan.

[floridasun78]

nhc didnt any thing at 2pm

[NDG]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=

has some 850MB vort (not much), low level convergence, upper level convergence, shear is light....

Clearly the greatest vorticity is at H20, nothing at the surface, for now at least.
But surface pressures if anything have been going up for during the last 24hrs by 2-3 mb in the eastern GOM sign that there is nothing at the surface getting organzied, IMO.

[ROCK]

this is a tropical air mass and worthy of an invest tag and at least a 0% chance....I have seen worse things tagged. I dont get the NHC thinking sometimes.