Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Forecast for some of the Islands in Eastern Caribbean

http://www.antiguamet.com/


Link has forecasts from some Islands in the area.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST SAT JUN 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT LOW NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO WILL MEANDER ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS WHILE WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON
APPROACHES TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO AND FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS
THE RESULT OF STRONG DIURNAL HEATING IN COMBINATION WITH LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. LIMITED SHOWERS ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS THE LOCAL REGION REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER LEVEL TUTT LOW THAT PERSISTED NORTH OF THE
REGION FOR THE LAST WEEK IS EXPECTED TO WEAKENS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
LOOSING ITS INFLUENCES OVER THE REGION. THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST
NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT REACHING THE LOCAL REGION SUNDAY MORNING. AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE OVER THE REGION. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAINS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS ON MONDAY. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR
2.00 INCHES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO AROUND 1.75
INCHES BY MONDAY AND EVEN MORE ON TUESDAY AND THEREAFTER AS A DRIER
AIR MASS MOVES AGAIN OVER THE AREA FROM THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 30/12Z. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER TJMZ BETWEEN 29/18Z-29/22Z. INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH
VCSH/-SHRA EXPECTED OVER TKPK...AND TNCM AFTER 29/22Z AS A TROPICAL
PASS OVER THOSE TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS. SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR
LESS ARE EXPECTED. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 77 87 / 30 60 50 20
STT 78 88 78 88 / 60 60 50 30

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 291734
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL
CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON
SUNDAY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[Macrocane]

Yesterday was the wettest day in El Salvador since October 18, 2011. The period from October 10 to October 19 2011 have the record for the wettest 10 days in El Salvador's history so it's fair to say that yesterday was a pretty wet day. The highest amount registered yesterday was 125.4 mm/4.94 inches in Ciudad Barrios. The rainfall in other stations:

Sesori 105 mm/4.13 inches
El Sauce 89 mm/3.5 inches
Chapeltique 78 mm/3.07 inches
Ataco 76 mm/2.99 inches
San Salvador 51 mm/2.00 inches
Santa Ana 40.7 mm/1.60 inches
San Miguel 36.4 mm/1.43 inches

Here's a map of yesterdays rainfall:


Unfortunately the rains already claimed a couple of victims when a mudslide buried their home in Ciudad Delgado, a city part of metro-San Salvador.

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.aspx?from=&to=en&a=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.laprensagrafica.com%2Fdos-personas-mueren-soterradas-en-san-salvador

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Tropical Wave moving over PR today will bring scattered showers and a few thunderstorms that may cause some flooding.




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
410 AM AST SUN JUN 30 2013

.DISCUSSION...WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 15 KNOTS AND WILL PASS OVER LOCAL ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON. IT HAS BEEN LARGELY SHEARED APART BY THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BUT THE MOISTURE CERTAINLY REMAINS. CONVECTION HAS
BEEN SCANT WITHIN THE WAVE THROUGH THE EVENING BUT IS INCREASING
QUITE A BIT NOW SOUTH OF PR NEAR 15N-16N AND EXTENDING TOWARDS ST.
KITTS...EVEN INCREASING SOME NEAR USVI. PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP
SHOWS MOISTURE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE AREA THOUGH THE SONDE AT
BAYAMON IS NOT YET CONFIRMING THIS. GOESBUFR SOUNDINGS AT 08Z SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 2 INCHES. GFS SHOWS VERY GOOD
1000-700 MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE TODAY THOUGH AM NOT SURE HOW MUCH
THE WAVE WILL ENHANCE THIS.

HAVE BOOSTED THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION SOME TODAY AND
INCREASED THE COVERAGE OF THUNDER A LITTLE. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THIS MORNING BUT SOME SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY
FOR CONVECTION. SOME FLOODING IS LIKELY TODAY BUT SHOULD BE RATHER
LOCALIZED...COULD POSSIBLY LAST INTO MONDAY FOR PR.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA INCRG NR USVI WI SHRA/TSTM INCR S-SW TKPK. THIS
TREND WL CONT TO SPRD INTO AFT WI SCT MVFR/ISOLD IFR...MTN OBSC
LATE MRNG/AFT. WIND TO FL150 E 14-22 KT BCMG ESE BY AFT.

&&

.MARINE...TRADE WINDS TO STAY 20 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS UP TO 6
FT. LOCAL SWAN MODEL INCREASES THE SURFACE WIND TO AROUND 19 KT
LATE TUE WHICH DRIVES THE SEAS TO 7 FT NORTH OF USVI. MEANWHILE
GFS MAINTAINS AND EVEN DECREASES THE SEA LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
THROUGH MID-WEEK. GIVEN RECENT TRENDS WILL SIDE WITH GFS ATTM AND
KEEP WIND/SEAS DOWN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 86 78 / 50 20 30 20
STT 87 79 87 80 / 50 20 30 20

[cycloneye]

A few Caribbean Islands forecasts

http://www.antiguamet.com/

[Macrocane]

Yesterday was another very wet day in El Salvador, the highest rainfall was 118 mm/4.65 inches registered in Jucuarán. The rainfall in other stations:

Candelaria de la Frontera 114.4 mm/4.50 inches
Laquesera 79 mm/3.11 inches
Puerto Parada 74 mm/2.91 inches
La Unión 55.6 mm/2.19 inches
San Miguel 55.3 mm/2.18 inches

Here's a map of yestarday rainfall:

[cycloneye]

Raining here in intervals with some thunder as wave moves thru.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
237 PM AST SUN JUN 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW WILL MEANDER NORTH OF THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE MONDAY
AS A DRIER AIR MASS MOVES OVER THE REGION FROM THE EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASED TODAY AS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
RAPIDLY WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST TOWARD HISPANIOLA TONIGHT. LATEST
SATELLITES IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTED A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS. THIS MOISTURE WILL
MOVE WEST NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE LOCAL ISLAND TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY. THUS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS TONIGHT.
COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAINS
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CLOSE TO 2.00 INCHES TONIGHT...BUT DECREASING TO AROUND 1.75 ON
MONDAY AND EVEN MORE TUESDAY AND THEREAFTER AS A GENERAL
DRIER...STABLE AND HAZY AIR MASS ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 30/12Z. PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS TIST...TISX AND TJSJ UNTIL AT LEAST 29/23Z IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VCSH/-SHRA EXPECTED OVER THE REST
OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES AS THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
TROPICAL PASS OVER THOSE TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS
UP TO 6 FT. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST
OF THE LOCAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 78 87 / 20 30 20 20
STT 79 89 79 88 / 20 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good weather will prevail this week in PR and adjacent islands.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
357 AM AST MON JUL 1 2013

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS
OFFSHORE WATERS BUT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THIS
MORNING. CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS ARE ALSO INCREASING OVER THE
EXTREME EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A 600-500 MB
WAVE. GFS SHOWS SOME CLOUDS AT THAT LEVEL MOVING NORTHWEST TO PR
BY 12Z BUT IT APPEARS MUCH TOO AGGRESSIVE AND TOO FAR NORTHWEST
ALREADY AT 06Z.

TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INTO MONA PASSAGE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH OVER PR/USVI...BUT INTEGRATED WATER HAS SHOWN
A MAJOR DROPOFF AT BAYAMON DURING EVENING. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR AT
900-600 MB IS ADVECTING INTO AREA AS SHOWN IN GOESBUFR SOUNDINGS
THOUGH POESBUFR DOES NOT SEE IT. THE DRY AIR WILL LIMIT CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOME HEAVY SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVER NORTHWEST
QUARTER OF PR.

THE PATTERN OTHERWISE THIS WEEK IS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET. MID-
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WAVY BUT ESSENTIALLY DISCONNECTED FROM ITCZ
MOISTURE. DEEP MOISTURE FROM ITCZ COULD POSSIBLY REACH THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY BUT PROBABLY A DAY LATER THAN THE TROUGH THAT DREW IT
OUT OF THE ZONE. SO EXPECTED PRECIPITATION EACH DAY TO BE MAINLY
DIURNAL... SCATTERED OVER PARTS OF WESTERN PR AND ISOLATED
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THRU TUE XCP ISOLD MVFR IN FEW SHRA...MOST LIKELY
TJMZ/TJBQ THIS AFT ALONG WITH MTN OBSC. WINDS TO FL150 ESE 12-20
KT BCMG E LATE TDY AND ENE ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...TRADE WINDS TO REACH 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS UP TO 6
FT NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...JUNE 2013 OVERALL WAS COOL AND WET ACROSS THE REGION.
RECORDED RAINFALL TOTALS AT THE FOLLOWING AIRPORTS FOLLOW...
COMPARED TO THE HIGHEST RAINFALL EVER RECORDED IN JUNE.

SAN JUAN LUIS MARIN...11.29 INCHES - SECOND HIGHEST TO 13.60
INCHES IN 2011.
CHARLOTTE AMALIE...4.38 INCHES - TENTH HIGHEST BEHIND 9.51 INCHES
IN 2010.
CHRISTIANSTED...4.90 INCHES - FIFTH HIGHEST BEHIND 7.83 INCHES IN
1987.

IT WAS ALSO COOLER THAN NORMAL. SAN JUAN AIRPORT AVERAGED 82.0
DEGREES - 1.3 BELOW NORMAL. CHARLOTTE AMALIE AVERAGED 82.6 - 0.9
BELOW NORMAL...AND CHRISTIANSTED AIRPORT AVERAGED 82.5 - 0.5 BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 86 77 / 20 20 20 20
STT 88 79 88 78 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
324 PM AST MON JUL 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATES THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. A SURGE IN
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...AS DEEP
MOISTURE AT LOW LEVEL COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE MORNING STARTED DRY
AND HAZY...TJSJ 01/12Z SOUNDING CAME VERY MOIST WITH PW VALUES AT
2.0 INCHES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRY OUT TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AS A SLOT OF DRY AIR MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
EAST.

FOR WEDNESDAY...COMPUTER MODEL FORECAST A SURGE IN MOISTURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...INCREASING
AGAIN THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN
GENERAL...EVERY AFTERNOON THIS WEEK WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN
THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL CONTINUE OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ
THROUGH AT LEAST 01/22Z. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 02/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 87 77 87 / 20 20 20 20
STT 79 88 78 89 / 20 20 20 20

[BZSTORM]

Just had email notice that the email hurricane cyclone alerts from NHC are being discontinued on July 31 2013 due to the high cost. They list a bunch of other sites who provide of free email alerts but dont see any for anyone outside USA i.e we dont have usa zip codes in Belize. Anyone know how I can keep getting the advisories from NHC now http://www.weather.gov stopping this service, without having to check the NHC website many times a day? thanks

[msbee]

I received the same email and was wondering what do we do now.

[cycloneye]

Hi BZSTORM and Barbara. I don't have an answer to this but hopefully one of our pro mets can help us with this.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A Tropical Wave will increase the showers starting on Wednesday and lasting thru Thursday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
427 AM AST TUE JUL 2 2013

.DISCUSSION...QUITE A FEW SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND USVI...SOME OF THEM COMING ONSHORE PR IN THE
NORTH AND EAST. NO LIGHTNING NOTED YET BUT THERE MIGHT BE A STRIKE
OR TWO THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS ARE IN A 1000-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE
THOUGH THE WAVE CONTAINED IN IT IS VERY SLIGHT. IT WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST SIDE OF PR BY 18Z AFTER DECENT SUNSHINE SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE AGAIN...SIMILAR TO THOSE
ON MON. GFS ALSO SHOWS A LITTLE 250 MB DIVERGENCE OVER WESTERN PR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TUTT LOW NORTH OF HISPANIOLA THAT COULD ENHANCE
CONVECTION. BOTH THE THETA-E RIDGE AND THE DIVERGENCE SHIFT OFFSHORE
BY 03/00Z.

NEXT TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 52W IS MOVING WEST 20 KT AND RUNNING WELL
AHEAD OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE WAVE WILL FLATTEN QUITE A BIT
TODAY AND GFS PUSHES IT BY HERE AS SEVERAL RIPPLES IN THE FLOW
WED-THU. THE BEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS HANGING BACK AT
41W AND THAT WILL ARRIVE HERE THU BUT EACH DAY UNTIL THEN WILL SEE
SCATTERED AND PERHAPS NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER WESTERN PR.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD MVFR IN SHRA THIS MRNG USVI AND NORTH/EAST PR.
PD MVFR WI SHRA/TSRA AT TJMZ IN AFT WI MTN OBSC. OTHW MOSTLY VFR.
WIND E 14-26 KT BLO FL120 THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...SOME MODELS INCREASE WINDS TO 20 KT OR A BIT MORE ON
SOME OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATER TONIGHT/WED WHICH COULD BE
ENOUGH TO PUSH SEAS TO 7 FT. THE MODELS TEND TO RUN A LITTLE HIGH
WITH THEIR WINDS SO WILL WATCH THE TREND TODAY. SO FAR...BUOYS DO
NOT SUGGEST AN INCREASING TREND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 87 78 / 30 30 30 40
STT 88 78 89 80 / 40 30 30 40

[Gustywind]

The air is 'bad ' in Guadeloupe.
"Gwad Air" informed that the information and recommendation in terms of pollution threshold has been exceeded. The ATMO index is 8, bad. The phenomenon should diminish today late in the day.

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... mauvais-2/

"The mists of sand from the SAHARA are present in our archipelago.

Index ATMO: the index of the quality of the air, based on concentrations of 4 pollutants (nitrogen dioxide, Ozone, sulphur dioxide and dust of less than 10 microns), is therefore high.

The calculated index yesterday is 8: index bad - concentration of 52.6 micrograms / cubic metre.

For information the phenomenon began midmorning Sunday and should dissipate at the end of the day.

The consequences: less than 10 micron dust may have an irritating action on the respiratory tract (cough, Genoa respiratory asthma attack, irritation of the eyes).

This message is primarily aimed at sensitive persons (infants, elderly, asthmatics, allergy, chronic respiratory deficient, heart failure) may have nasal and respiratory irritation or an increase in respiratory effects associated with dust: gene inspiration, reduced respiratory capacity, aggravation of existing respiratory diseases.

Recommendations:

It is best to avoid physical activity and intense sports that can increase respiratory diseases by increasing the volume of air inhaled and including avoiding these activities near the roads.

Light physical activities and outputs outside are not prohibited.

You must follow your doctor's prescription and walk with your treatment.
So as not to increase the level of pollution, opt for carpooling; drive at a normal pace while respecting speed limits; use the car wisely (for long journeys for example).

[Gustywind]

Forecast for some of the Islands in Eastern Caribbean

http://www.antiguamet.com/

Link has forecasts from some Islands in the area.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
248 PM AST TUE JUL 2 2013

.DISCUSSION...EARLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS HAVE SLOWLY DECREASED...HOWEVER
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO ENTER THE
LOCAL AREA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THE 700 MB ANALYSIS
DEPICTS A WEAK TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED WEST OF THE REGION. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO REMAIN MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST...SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER PR MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH AND EAST COASTS...AND WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING AND
GEOGRAPHIC EFFECTS...POSSIBLY ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
WESTERN AREA OF PR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE GFS REL
HUM IS SOMEWHAT SHALLOW...THE PRECIP WATER ON THE 12 Z SOUNDING
REMAINS HIGH AT AROUND 2 IN AND RELATIVELY MOIST SURFACE
CONDITIONS.

THE GFS INDICATES ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE LOCAL REGION
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS LIMITED DURING
ITS PASSAGE...INDICATING SUGGESTING GOOD PRECIPITATION...BUT
LIMITED EXPECTATION FOR FLOODING. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO MAINLY EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH CROSSING THROUGH THE REGION
SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN BRINGING IN MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...HEAVY SHOWERS WERE MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA BUT
BROUGHT MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO BOTH VSBYS AND CIGS. ALSO SOME
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WERE OCCURRING. EXPECT CONDS TO IMPROVE IN
THE WEST HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND GENERALLY REMAIN VFR IN THE USVI
AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. CONDS WILL DETERIORATE AFT 03/12Z AS NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. AFT 03/16Z SHRA AND
TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR PUERTO RICO WITH LCL MVFR AND
AREAS OF MTN OBSCURATIONS. LLVL WINDS E 10 TO 20 KTS EXCEPT NEAR
25 KT BTWN 4-8 KFT. THE TROP WAVE WILL ARRIVE AFT 03/22Z IN PR AND
THE USVI.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS REMAIN BETWEEN 10 TO 20 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 6
FT FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT
THIS TIME SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 7 FEET...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL BE WATCHED FOR AN INCREASE DUE TO THE APPROACHING
TROPICAL WAVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 86 78 87 / 60 20 60 60
STT 77 90 79 89 / 50 30 60 60

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Variable weather between sun and scattered showers will dominate during this long 4th of July weekend.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
443 AM AST WED JUL 3 2013

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AGAIN THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
WATERS AND ALL SHORES EXCEPT SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PR. THE SHOWERS
EXTEND UPSTREAM TO WELL EAST OF 60W BUT WARM CLOUD TOPS SUGGEST NO
THUNDERSTORM IN THE BUNCH. EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE MOVING ONSHORE
THIS MORNING THEN THE FOCUS TURNS ONCE AGAIN TO WESTERN PR WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDER.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 61W THIS MORNING MOVING WEST 20 KT. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER TO REMAIN SHORT OF 2 INCHES AS IT PASSES BY
TONIGHT. BUT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AGAIN TONIGHT BEFORE WE GET SOME
RELATIVELY DRY AIR FOLLOWING THE WAVE THU-SUN. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
TO ARRIVE MON.

SEVERAL TUTT TROUGHS TO PASS BY IN THE NEXT WEEK NORTH OF 20N. GFS
HAS BEEN UNDERESTIMATING THE SPEED OF PROGRESSION AS THEY MOVE
WEST. THE TIMING OF THESE TROUGHS APPEAR THAT THEY WILL NOT
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BUT MUST SEE IF GFS IS NOT STILL TOO
SLOW IN THEIR PROGRESS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 01/18Z-21Z. LLVL WINDS WILL
REMAIN FM THE ESE AT AROUND 10-20 KT.

&&

.MARINE...ASCAT SATELLITE WINDS CONFIRM GFS/SWAN IN INCREASING THE
TRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM (20-23 KT) ALONG WITH A LONG FETCH. THIS
HAS BOOSTED THE SEAS PAST 7 FT AT BUOYS 41043 AND 41044...AND SAN
JUAN HAS APPROACHED 5 FT. EXPECT OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS TO REACH
7-8 FT TODAY THEN DROP ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
ATLANTIC WEAKENS A BIT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 88 78 / 70 60 60 30
STT 88 78 89 80 / 70 60 60 30

[Gustywind]

345
FXCA62 TJSJ 031843
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
243 PM AST WED JUL 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL GENERATE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS. SAHARAN
AIR LAYER WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SLOT OF DRY AIR AT MID LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE
MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. 03/12Z
TJSJ SOUNDING DEPICTED DRY AIR AT 700MB AND ABOVE...WITH BETTER
MOISTURE CONFINED IN THE LOWER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE. IN
ADDITION...FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE HAS
PUSHED THE SHOWERS QUICKLY TO THE WEST...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OBSERVED. THIS AREA OF DRY AIR...WILL EXIT
THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT...AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE EAST. ALTHOUGH THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS WEAK...WILL
BRING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE WAVE WILL EXIT THE LOCAL AREA
LATE THURSDAY.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL INDICATED A SAHARAN
AIR LAYER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING HAZY SKIES TO THE
AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT ALSO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER ACROSS THE
AREA. IN THE LONG TERM...ONLY PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION FROM TIME TO TIME...WITHOUT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT AFFECTING THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS OVER TJMZ THROUGH AT
LEAST 03/22Z BUT GENERALLY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AS
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...BUOY 41043 WAS SHOWING 7.5 FEET AT 8 SECONDS AT 230 PM
AST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUES IN EFFECT...AS WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DECREASE UNTIL AT LEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SEAS UP
TO 7 FEET AND WINDS OP TO 21 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 78 87 / 60 60 30 30
STT 78 89 80 88 / 60 60 30 30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ANEGADA
PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND
CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES
AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AST THURSDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

99/71

[Gustywind]

Atlantic Looking More Active But Development is Still Questionable

http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic

7/3/2013 11:04:49 AM


Tropical waves are along 24 west, along 42 west and along 64 west. All tropical waves are mostly south of 20 north. The tropical waves are moving westward at a pace of 5-6 degrees longitude per day. This will take the tropical wave along 64 west across the eastern Caribbean. The wave has brought more clouds and a few showers to the Lesser Antilles. The tropical wave along 42 west is expected to move into the Lesser Antilles during Saturday and Sunday. This should lead to more clouds and showers, especially over the Windward Islands.

The interaction between the remnants of a tropical wave and an upper-level trough over the central Gulf of Mexico continues to create heavy rainfall from the northwestern Caribbean northward across parts of the Deep South into the Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley areas. This interaction will probably not bring any tropical development over the Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. However, if the surface system can separate enough from the upper-level trough, there is a small chance of development in the southwestern Gulf late this week or during this weekend. But this is highly uncertain.

An upper-level low east-southeast of Bermuda continues to track southwest and will move on a more westward course during the next few days. This upper-level feature will weaken, but should be over the Straits of Florida by Monday night. Model output never shows a lower-level feature forming out of this feature. Despite this, the system could bring very heavy rainfall to the Bahamas on Sunday and Sunday night, then over Florida on Monday and Tuesday of next week. Long range model output shows no signs of tropical organization elsewhere across the basin through the rest of this week and through the rest of the Fourth of July weekend. However, weak tropical systems can still spin up quickly and we will continue to closely monitor these features.