Global model runs discussion

[MississippiWx]

NOGAPS see something coming off the Yucatan and smashing the Upper Texas Coast...but when does the NOGAPS NOT see something..

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

The storm the NAVGEM is developing is actually coming from the same surface trough that the 12z CMC showed developing and moving into the Northern Gulf. It appears to be forming from the enhanced area of vorticity at the end of the trough in the Western Caribbean. In other words, the yellow oval just east of Belize.

[boca]

Where is this system supposed to originate from? Yesterday it was from an ULL NE of Bermuda

[cycloneye]

Where is this system supposed to originate from? Yesterday it was from an ULL NE of Bermuda

The ULL main piece will go NE but a small part will swing to the SW towards the Bahamas.And that is when a combination of wave and ULL may start things but as we know ULL's to go down to surface take days to do so and if the pressure gradient is high,it will be difficult. It will be interesting to see how all unfolds in reality.

[MississippiWx]

Where is this system supposed to originate from? Yesterday it was from an ULL NE of Bermuda

The one that the CMC brings to near hurricane strength in a little over a week develops from a trough-split that originally occurs SE of Bermuda. It will have a long time over very warm water as well as possible interaction with an incoming tropical wave. We'll see if it happens.

[boca]

I'm trying not to be funny but it seems like an act of Congress to get an ULL to work down to the surface the conditions have to be perfect.

[ROCK]

18ZGFS doesnt have squat.....next..

[boca]

The only model showing anything is the CMC I looked at the 12z GFS and saw nothing,unless Im missing something.

[floridasun78]

let see if Levi's talk about this on tues he still think we could see system from ull by next weekend

[floridasun78]

this Levi's last post look he backing up a bit on system Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 37m

Major obstacle for trough-split feature will be strong MSLP gradient and suppressive ridge over SE US. Both oppose formation of low pressure
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[cycloneye]

this Levi's last post look he backing up a bit on system Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 37m

Major obstacle for trough-split feature will be strong MSLP gradient and suppressive ridge over SE US. Both oppose formation of low pressure
Expand

I posted the graphic about the gradient this afternoon on page 250. I said it was a caviat for the supposed trough-split.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Didn't Bonnie from 2010 develop under heavy shear or did the precursor have an LLC before it reached the ridge off the SE coast?

[Cyclenall]

18ZGFS doesnt have squat.....next..

This is becoming sour quick, I thought there would be 4 TC's by July 10 (early June), what is this? The early part of this hurricane season is becoming lame quick. Its bad enough the weather on the home front is terrible, worldwide other than the heatwave in the west is also not good; a recipe to trigger memories of certain years that had nothing to watch weather-wise.

this Levi's last post look he backing up a bit on system Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits

No bones being thrown now.

[gatorcane]

Models continue to show absolutely nothing for the forseeable future. Even the CMC has dropped the ULL system.

Of note, looks like the ECMWF is developing a large break in the subtropical ridge at 55W by 240 hours.

We haven't seen this in many weeks and would allow any Cape Verde systems that develop during this timeframe to recurve well out to sea:

[lester]

18ZGFS doesnt have squat.....next..

This is becoming sour quick, I thought there would be 4 TC's by July 10 (early June), what is this? The early part of this hurricane season is becoming lame quick. Its bad enough the weather on the home front is terrible, worldwide other than the heatwave in the west is also not good; a recipe to trigger memories of certain years that had nothing to watch weather-wise.

It's July, it's usually little to no activity in July. Now if it was September with 2 cyclones, then I'd be worried, but as LeBron James said, "I ain't got no worries" lol

-lester

[cycloneye]

What Dr Jeff Masters has to say about any future North Atlantic development that may include that ULL.

There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable forecast models predict tropical cyclone development through Sunday. There is a large upper-level cold-cored low pressure system over the middle of the North Atlantic that will move to the southwest during the week, and this low is expected to arrive in the Bahamas by Sunday and bring rainy conditions. Although the models do not show that this low will will acquire a surface circulation and develop tropical characteristics, it may be worth watching for development late this week.

[MGC]

This season is not 2005. So expect little action till Aug. The 2 TC are above average to date.......MGC

[floridasun78]

i see ull North Atlantic but i dont see moving sw

[MississippiWx]

The CMC is still hinting at a weak surface low making "landfall" somewhere along the Alabama/Florida border area in the next 48 hours or so. The low pressure area seems to form from the disturbed area currently south of Cuba (tail end of front). This area could combine with what's left of an old TW/surface boundary in the Central Gulf to spawn low pressure development. The GFS is also jumping onto this idea in its 12z run. Depending on upper level environment, we could get a quick TD or weak TS out of this before it goes inland. Small chance, but it's possible.

GFS at 48 hours



Possible instigator:

[Ivanhater]

Regardless of development...looks like a washout for Pensacola for the 4th of July

[cycloneye]

The 7/2/13 Global Tropics Hazards update doesn't have anything that looks to develop for Atlantic thru Mid July despite the MJO being in the basin.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /ghazards/