How many named systems will form in July?

[TheStormExpert]

Originally voted for 3 storms with 1 possibly becoming a hurricane. Now I'm thinking we will be lucky to have 1 storm, with a extremely slim chance of 2 storms. Also no hurricane predicted for July now.

[gatorcane]

I voted for 2 when I voted last week. The way it looks now that might not happen, we may get one if we are lucky. But I am thinking things will turn more favorable especially starting around the last week of July. Squeezing out a couple of storms then may not be out of the realm of possibility!

[CrazyC83]

Zero. But that doesn't mean a quiet midseason.

[Rgv20]

Looking at the forecast models it looks like a quiet fist half of July, should have voted for 1 but I have a gut feeling that 2 may form..

[Hurricaneman]

Its quite likely that my guess of 4 is going to bust badly, should have said 1 but I based my guess on the MJO being in phase 2 and 3 which like 2004 is probably not going to produce any tropical activity, maybe a couple of invests but not more than 1 storm

[CYCLONE MIKE]

All logic tells me zero but something in my gut says we might get some weak ts to spin up before dying out quickly. So guess will go with one.

[cycloneye]

Less than 24 hours for the poll to close and good voting so far among the options. Those who still have not voted come and do so before it closes on the 4th at 4:32 PM EDT. Anyone who wants to discuss about the month of July in terms of developments if you voted or not can do so.

[northjaxpro]

I voted earlier in the week for 3 name storms. I kind of wish I had voted for 2 though. I think conditions will become more favorable for development in the Atlantic basin after July 15.

I will say that if the Bermuda High continues to flex its strength as the models are depicting in the long range, that may be an ominous sign down the road for things to come.

[NDG]

I voted earlier in the week for 3 name storms. I kind of wish I had voted for 2 though. I think conditions will become more favorable for development in the Atlantic basin after July 15.

I will say that if the Bermuda High continues to flex its strength as the models are depicting in the long range, that may be an ominous sign down the road for things to come.

Yes, I agree, if the Bermuda High continues this strong we can forget about most storms not recurving out to sea like the last few years.

[cycloneye]

I voted for 2 but seeing what is going on,maybe the month may only have one.It looks like July will follow climo and ASO will be insane with many TC's around so let's enjoy the calm before storm as all indications are for a rough ride for many in the basin.

[sunnyday]

I vote for none.

[Nimbus]

Was going to vote for none but the end of July we sometimes get a TD that gets upgraded if it beats the usual shear.

[sunnyday]

Do any of you suspect that the larger number of predicted storms/hurricanes will turn out to be inaccurate and that this will be a slow or average year?

[WeatherEmperor]

Do any of you suspect that the larger number of predicted storms/hurricanes will turn out to be inaccurate and that this will be a slow or average year?

What data are you looking at suggests that this will be a slow or average year?

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[Ntxw]

Do any of you suspect that the larger number of predicted storms/hurricanes will turn out to be inaccurate and that this will be a slow or average year?

I don't think there's any real indication of that. We get a lot of hype preseason and people always expect an 05 start every year, this was exceptionally rare season. It's not realistic, a couple storms before August is the norm. Conditions are usually always hostile or unfavorable June/July and what happens during these periods often do not reflect later on in August and September, that is why you see such dramatic rise in activity on TC development during those months.

[Cainer]

Looks like we might continue the trend of quiet Julys that we've been going through. Since 2008, there's only been 4 July storms, Bonnie in 2010 and Bret, Cindy and Don in 2011. So going on that average of 1 storm per year, I'm voting for one .

[JtSmarts]

I'm going with 2 including a cat 1 hurricane.

[cycloneye]

The voting is over as poll closes. Thanks to the 69 who participated in this interesting poll. This thread remains open to get comments about what July may bring. The next poll will be the August one that will start on July 24th and end on July 31rst.

[sunnyday]

I was simply asking the question about fewer storms being possible because I was curious about what others were thinking....

[galaxy401]

Didn't even notice this thread at all aww.

I'm thinking three storms all in the second half of July. One might reach hurricane.