2013 WPAC Season

[Typhoon Hunter]

June is usually the month for sheared tropical storm in SCS but as you mention climatologicaly speaking we should have had our first typhoon long ago! I expect to see our first typhoon in the 2nd week of July once the MJO makes its way back into our region.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

the first typhoon has formed...


Disclaimer: This photo is owned by WesternPacificWeather.com and NOAA.

[Typhoon Hunter]

the first typhoon has formed...


Disclaimer: This photo is owned by WesternPacificWeather.com and NOAA.

No it hasn't since JMA is the official agency in the W Pacific and they maxed Rumbia out at 50kts severe tropical storm.

My personal opinion: yes I think Rumbia did become a typhoon given its presentation on microwave satellite as well as Dvorak estimates at the time supports typhoon intensity.

[euro6208]

increasing chance for tropical cyclogenesis east of the philippines during week 2...will we have back to back typhoons?

[euro6208]

the first typhoon has formed...

although upgraded to a typhoon, the peak intensity (65 knots) is severely underestimated...based on that image, rumbia likely peaked at 95 knots...we need recon...






The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

WE NEED RECON!

[Typhoon Hunter]

I think our next area of development could be around northern Marianas in 4 or 5 days. Models hinting at something possibly spinning up there, including ECMWF, UKMET and NAVGEM. Nothing from GFS yet however it has started to hint a tropical cyclone genesis in the far long run, which is of no surprise of course since it's July!

[dexterlabio]

GFS still not showing anything yet but I notice that more ensemble members are hinting at TC development within the area, with possible track towards Okinawa and Taiwan.

[dexterlabio]

I think our next area of development could be around northern Marianas in 4 or 5 days. Models hinting at something possibly spinning up there, including ECMWF, UKMET and NAVGEM. Nothing from GFS yet however it has started to hint a tropical cyclone genesis in the far long run, which is of no surprise of course since it's July!

Just saw the GFS long range forecast. It's like 12-13 days ahead and things can change but wow that's such a low-rider system at this time of the year with more westward movement. Typical July tracks are more northward and usually affects Taiwan and southern Japan.

Speaking of that, I know we are in ENSO-Neutral conditions but this year feels "La Nina-like". Though systems during Nino years tend to be larger in number and more intense, cyclone tracks during La Nina are more threatening for mainland/SE Asia as these systems make their way to SCS.

And has anyone noticed the STR becoming stronger recently? I have this thought that the tracks of Bebinca and Rumbia will be typical this year. Just a feeling...

[Typhoon Hunter]

CMC doing what CMC does best - overcranking TCs! For the N Marianas systems I was talking about:



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[Typhoon Hunter]

Models becoming more keen on developing the upper level low west of Wake, current set up suggests a strong ridge will push it west. ECMWF 00Z bring a strong tropical storm into Taiwan, CMC blows it up into a strong system (as it does with most systems,) UKMET developing it too and looks like GFS is last one to join the party and starting to get a handle on it.

Could well be our next named storm next week.



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[dexterlabio]

Haha you beat to posting that first. Speaking of Euro, I read somewhere in the forums it got an upgrade last June 25. If it's indeed true then I wonder if the old Euro will be back. Let's see if it gets this one right.

And wow what a strong ridge we have early in July. Models are consitantly depicting the ridge holding strong for a couple of days.


EDIT: I know it's long range and could mean nothing at all but GFS has been showing a pretty huge system for 4 runs now.

[mrbagyo]

CMC is very bullish with that system west of Wake island. well CMC's almost always bullish when estimating intensity and sometimes the forecast is a doomsday scenario. so whats new with that???
ECMWF also supports the development of it.
GFS however develops a different system in the very long run (lower latitude) and might cross the PI again..

nice burst of convection from a tropical wave to the east of the Philippines..

the first typhoon has formed...


Disclaimer: This photo is owned by WesternPacificWeather.com and NOAA.

officially - no typhoon yet.. but i also believe Rumbia is a typhoon of higher intensity, if the eye just remained intact for much longer, JTWC will not peg it at just 65 knots.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

According to JMA, a new tropical depression has formed and within 24 hours, the system will be named Soulik.

Track:


TD
Issued at 04:25 UTC, 7 July 2013

<Analyses at 07/03 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N19°05'(19.1°)
E150°50'(150.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 1010hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 07/15 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N19°00'(19.0°)
E147°55'(147.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 1010hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)
Radius of probability circle 150km(80NM)

<Forecast for 08/03 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°00'(19.0°)
E144°30'(144.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[galaxy401]

How is this season going compared to the average? I know it's below average in ACE but how about number of TS?

[Typhoon Hunter]

How is this season going compared to the average? I know it's below average in ACE but how about number of TS?

Yup ACE is below average I believe but those numbers could well recover if Soulik does what GFS and ECMWF are forecasting. In terms of named storms Soulik is the season's 7th and average by 8th July is 5.2, so about 2 above average.

[euro6208]

July Update

25/16/8

slightly down from the may update in number of TS and MT by 1...


Tropical Storm Risk

[xtyphooncyclonex]

1st official typhoon, SOULIK is BORN!

[euro6208]

During Week-2, tropical cyclogenesis becomes more likely over the western Pacific.



hmm, another soulik like track?

[Hurricane_Luis]

The GFS develops the next storm east of Luzon makes landfall on the eastern coast and crosses into the South China Sea and skirts the west coast of the island, the Euro model also develops this.