Global model runs discussion

[Hurricaneman]

The 12zGFS shows a low at 288 over the Cape Verdes and another to the south of the Cape Verdes at 360 which means that its showing some robust waves coming off of Africa in 12 days+, maybe our next development may come from this area in the next couple of weeks especially since the shear has been low in this area and really isn't expected to change much

[Cyclenall]

This wasn't expected to be a quiet late June or July, but a very active one. Most of the experts even predicted a much above average TC period in the early and mid parts of July.

This season is not 2005. So expect little action till Aug. The 2 TC are above average to date.......MGC

Well....

[cycloneye]

Well,at least GFS shows a strong wave reaching the Lesser Antilles in less than 200 hours. (July 10) For sure it will change many times.

[tolakram]

This wasn't expected to be a quiet late June or July, but a very active one. Most of the experts even predicted a much above average TC period in the early and mid parts of July.

This season is not 2005. So expect little action till Aug. The 2 TC are above average to date.......MGC

Well....

That will be wrong 99 times out of 100. Active July's are rare, will continue to be rare, and will have very little influence over the total number of systems. Period. The conducive environment in July of 2005 was extremely rare. IMO

What I DO think many predict is more named MARGINAL systems in June and July that will help boost the count. For example, the GFS has been showing an area of low pressure in the BOC for a while now, and this just might make it to depression or TS status. Maybe.

Still, July usually acts as the transitional month. The conditions (fronts, etc) that make early season storms possible are gone, and the real hurricane season is still a month off.

[ROCK]

I agree with Mark....but come on 2kers!!! this is only the 2nd of July..got a whole month to watch!!

[SouthFloridian92]

[img] http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/peakofseason.gif[/img]According to this graph, the hurricane season peaks in early June then quiets down a bit until mid-late July then begins to gear up some in late July to early August and really kicks off in mid August.

[cycloneye]

New video by Levi Cowan about what to expect in North Atlantic tropics in the next few weeks.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... c-july-10/

[hurricanehunter69]

What a great discussion by Levi Cowan man! We also have a potential named storm in the BOC, in addition to all the other potential development features he spoke of. This would be the very storm the GFS has been showing for quite a while now.

[ROCK]

NOGAPS is at it again.....BOC development but instead of NGOM it sends a TS into mid Texas coast....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[ROCK]

puts Galveston Houston on the wet side....1008MB TS....

[hurricanekid416]

There are now multiple areas to watch in the coming days it's crazy how quick the basin can change

[ROCK]

I would watch that MLC coming off the coast of Yucatan into the BOC....20N 92W is where I have it....

shear is screaming though.....might need to stay south for awhile and let things settle down.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[Cyclenall]

That will be wrong 99 times out of 100. Active July's are rare, will continue to be rare, and will have very little influence over the total number of systems. Period. The conducive environment in July of 2005 was extremely rare. IMO

I can't agree with this at all, 99 out of 100 is really stretching it as 2008 was pretty active so its more like 2 out of 10 July's. I never said it had influence over the total number of storms. It seems everyone here has forgotten what the mid-range forecasts were like in June that pertained to what July could bring. All lot of favorable ingredients are in place for tropical cyclones to form earlier than normal so where is all this pre-meat season denial coming from all of a sudden? We're not talking about what an average July is like, but 2013's potential. Sure, nothing could happen despite this but I have to believe the odds are higher now than last year and an average July.

To be clear I'm not thinking 2005 level July activity but more like 3-4 named storms with 1 or 2 becoming hurricanes.

[Fego]

Same as 18UTC, GFS 00 run shows a strong wave at 192 hours.


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[Hurricaneman]

The last 3 out of 4 GFS runs show at least robust waves with possible storms after day 10, needs to be monitored to see if it moves up in time to pre truncation to see if its true or its just fantasy

[tolakram]

That will be wrong 99 times out of 100. Active July's are rare, will continue to be rare, and will have very little influence over the total number of systems. Period. The conducive environment in July of 2005 was extremely rare. IMO

I can't agree with this at all, 99 out of 100 is really stretching it as 2008 was pretty active so its more like 2 out of 10 July's. I never said it had influence over the total number of storms. It seems everyone here has forgotten what the mid-range forecasts were like in June that pertained to what July could bring. All lot of favorable ingredients are in place for tropical cyclones to form earlier than normal so where is all this pre-meat season denial coming from all of a sudden? We're not talking about what an average July is like, but 2013's potential. Sure, nothing could happen despite this but I have to believe the odds are higher now than last year and an average July.

To be clear I'm not thinking 2005 level July activity but more like 3-4 named storms with 1 or 2 becoming hurricanes.

That's 1 less storm than 2005.

I don't think it's appropriate to say anyone is in denial. Most of us think 2013 will be an above average season. We don't know what July will be like yet either. Models are nearly useless over a week out, IMO.

[cycloneye]

The thread has slowed today as the models don't have anything of significance.GFS has some strong waves moving thru the MDR but nothing developing thru July 19. The ECMWF only has a broad low in Eastern Atlantic on July 13.

[Hurricane Alexis]

From the Miami afternoon AFD:

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO ROTATE SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN
WESTWARD AROUND THE MASSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN BAHAMAS ON SUNDAY AND BE NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY.
THIS UPPER LOW WILL MERGE WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AS THEY BOTH TRAVEL
WESTWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA OR THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE MODELS
ARE NOT SHOWING ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS UPPER LOW...MOST LIKELY
DUE TO THE STRONG TRADE WINDS NOT GIVING IT ENOUGH TIME TO CLOSE
OFF. HOWEVER...THESE FEATURES NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THEY CAN
SOMETIMES DEVELOP. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE WESTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW COMPARED WITH THE GFS...SO RAINFALL
CHANCES MAY INCREASE AS EARLY AS MONDAY.

[Hurricaneman]

the 18zGFS closes off a 1017 low with the cutoff at 153 and subsequently opens it to a trough which IMO is showing signs that its inching towards developing this into something

It landfalls with a 1017 low at 7 days so it does indeed close something off but is very weak but the trend went from nothing to trough to weak low which is lending to this cutoff having a 5% chance at development in the next week

Going to start a thread on this cutoff upper low

[Aric Dunn]

not very related.. but i have not seen so many upper lvl lows retrograding in a long time.... very odd to me at least.