2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

[ninel conde]

If that pattern continued i dont think anything could get close to texas. Lots of upper northwest flow over texas.

[SFLcane]

Amazing ridge here..

If it does continue just cant see how florida does not see something this season.

[northjaxpro]

If that pattern comes to fruition for July, that is a very ominous look possibly for systems to develop and threaten the Caribbean Islands and possibly Florida and Eastern GOM. We will see if this happens, but the models the past couple of days have been persistent in strengthening the Bermuda High, at least for the first half of July.

[gatorcane]

Here is what NWS Miami has to say about this ridge that is supposed to build into the MidAtlantic states and Western Atlantic for the 4th of July through the weekend:

LONG TERM /INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BECOME ANOMALOUSLY
POWERFUL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. ITS CENTER WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTHEAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT INCREASING VERTICAL
THICKNESS VALUES AND DECREASED MOISTURE WILL TRANSLATED TO
SUPPRESSED SHWR CHANCES DURING THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THIS WEEKEND.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

Such a ridge would steer systems that form or make it west of 60W towards Florida if it is present in August and September.

[StormTracker]

Here is what NWS Miami has to say about this ridge that is supposed to build into the MidAtlantic states and Western Atlantic for the 4th of July through the weekend:

LONG TERM /INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BECOME ANOMALOUSLY
POWERFUL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. ITS CENTER WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTHEAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT INCREASING VERTICAL
THICKNESS VALUES AND DECREASED MOISTURE WILL TRANSLATED TO
SUPPRESSED SHWR CHANCES DURING THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THIS WEEKEND.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

Such a ridge would steer systems that form or make it west of 60W towards Florida if it is present in August and September.

Gatorcane, shhhhhhhhhh the Bermuda High might hear you!

[SFLcane]

Joe b twiiter...

@BigJoeBastardi: Get this pattern in August or Sept with hurricane lurking and look out. Trough splitting, backing ridge http://t.co/KHvOft6p9E

[cycloneye]

The Vertical Instability is again creeping up after doing a plundge in past weeks.

[SFLcane]

Whoe...if things don't change come August it could be a very long season.

[RL3AO]

Thats a very scary looking pattern.

[gatorcane]

Not the pattern you want to see come August-September. We can only hope the long-wave pattern changes.

[TheStormExpert]

Whoe...if things don't change come August it could be a very long season.

Where do you get these model graphics, could I have the link?

[TheStormExpert]

And knowing that the middle of August is only 6 weeks away is what makes it very scary.

[MississippiWx]

Whoe...if things don't change come August it could be a very long season.

Where do you get these model graphics, could I have the link?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

They are from Levi Cowan's site.

[Janie2006]

You have to begin wondering at this point. Earlier this week GFS was consistent with the trough lifting out and zonal flow across the southern tier of the CONUS establishing itself next week, with a piece of the good ol' Bermuda high breaking off. Now it's indicating that this primary trough does indeed lift, but the same pattern stays in place, really.....strong upper ridge over the western CONUS and strong Bermuda high off to the east in the Atlantic, lower heights (576 DM) in the middle. Long range prognostication (which, I know, is like drinking the Kool-Aid) is consistent with this idea as well, keeping both ridges and having troughiness in the middle by the 26th.

I keep mentioning this pattern because it is truly anomalous for the South. Example: Birmingham hasn't seen 90*F since June 30th due to the trough, clouds, rain, etcetera. They probably won't see 90 until at least Tuesday. Anniston set an all-time record low maxima for the date yesterday....76*F. Are you sure it's July?

Anyway, if this turns out to be the primary pattern for most of the summer (sorta like the Texas Death Ridge a couple of years ago) then indeed there is trouble down the road. Those storms aren't going through that strong Atlantic high, they're going to go around it. Bad news, but let's see how long this general pattern holds.

It is getting weird along the coast, however.

[gatorcane]

You have to begin wondering at this point. Earlier this week GFS was consistent with the trough lifting out and zonal flow across the southern tier of the CONUS establishing itself next week, with a piece of the good ol' Bermuda high breaking off. Now it's indicating that this primary trough does indeed lift, but the same pattern stays in place, really.....strong upper ridge over the western CONUS and strong Bermuda high off to the east in the Atlantic, lower heights (576 DM) in the middle. Long range prognostication (which, I know, is like drinking the Kool-Aid) is consistent with this idea as well, keeping both ridges and having troughiness in the middle by the 26th.

I keep mentioning this pattern because it is truly anomalous for the South. Example: Birmingham hasn't seen 90*F since June 30th due to the trough, clouds, rain, etcetera. They probably won't see 90 until at least Tuesday. Anniston set an all-time record low maxima for the date yesterday....76*F. Are you sure it's July?

Anyway, if this turns out to be the primary pattern for most of the summer (sorta like the Texas Death Ridge a couple of years ago) then indeed there is trouble down the road. Those storms aren't going through that strong Atlantic high, they're going to go around it. Bad news, but let's see how long this general pattern holds.

It is getting weird along the coast, however.

That's a really good observation. The past couple of seasons featured a stubborn "death" ridge centered over the center part of the United States, leaving troughiness over Western North America and troughiness over Eastern North America. Short waves would rotate around the death ridge and constantly erode the Bermuda High which was positioned more east in the Western Atlantic and weaker.

This pattern not only prevented systems from hitting the Northern GOM areas but it defected Atlantic systems recurving them out to sea. The exception was Sandy and we do recall an anomalously strong mid-level ridge over New Foundland that built in very late in the season similar to what SFLcane's graphic shows above.

Certainly a pattern to keep an eye on to see if we see this in August and September because the door is wide open for threats to the SE United States and GOM currently.

[SFLcane]

Great post! Janie2006

[Hurricaneman]

The trough position in the models and currently are of what 2004 was like and somewhat of a pattern of what an El Nino madoki would bring except this is in a -neutral phase which is the only difference that I can see while everything else in the pattern is close to the same as 2004

[cycloneye]

Very good discussion by Dr Jeff Masters about how Chantals presence may be a harbringer of a active North Atlantic 2013 season.

Chantal: a likely harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season
Chantal's formation on July 8 is an usually early date for formation of the season's third storm, which usually occurs on August 13. A large number of early-season named storms is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season, unless one or more of these storms form in the deep tropics, south of 23.5°N. According to Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, leaders of Colorado State's seasonal hurricane forecasting team,

"Most years do not have named storm formations in June and July in the tropical Atlantic (south of 23.5°N); however, if tropical formations do occur, it indicates that a very active hurricane season is likely. For example, the seven years with the most named storm days in the deep tropics in June and July (since 1949) are 1966, 1969, 1995, 1996, 1998, 2005, and 2008. All seven of these seasons were very active. When storms form in the deep tropics in the early part of the hurricane season, it indicates that conditions are already very favorable for TC development. In general, the start of the hurricane season is restricted by thermodynamics (warm SSTs, unstable lapse rates), and therefore deep tropical activity early in the hurricane season implies that the thermodynamics are already quite favorable for tropical cyclone (TC) development."

Two of this season's three storms have formed in the deep tropics--Tropical Storm Barry, which formed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche at a latitude of 19.6°N, and now Tropical Storm Chantal, which formed at a latitude of 9.8°N. With recent runs of the GFS model predicting formation of yet another tropical storm southwest of the Cape Verde Islands early next week, it appears that the Atlantic is primed for an active hurricane season in 2013.

Jeff Masters

[Cyclenall]

Very good discussion by Dr Jeff Masters about how Chantals presence may be a harbringer of a active North Atlantic 2013 season.

I'm glad you posted this because this is what I'm interested in and wanted to make another point on. These are forming in the deep tropics unlike last year. These are the meat and potatoes of the tropics not the apps up north. Now that we are actually seeing proof of it, the doubts this will be a wild season are eviscerated. My thinking for years with similar Julys were 2010, 2008, and yes 2005.

[TheStormExpert]

Is it me or are some of the models (such as the GFS) hinting at a pattern change to more troughiness along the U.S. East Coast? I'm not an expert so please explain to me if this is a potential pattern change or just the models showing their random tricks like they always do in the long range.