Flash in pan? SW of Cape Verde (Is Invest 95L)

[Alyono]

The chances of development are much HIGHER than that.

Of course... the chance I am referring to are the chance that it is a by the book depression, which it appears very close to being right now. I am not referring to the chance that NHC will classify it

[cycloneye]

The chances of development are much HIGHER than that.

Of course... the chance I am referring to are the chance that it is a by the book depression, which it appears very close to being right now. I am not referring to the chance that NHC will classify it

You think it may be a repeat of invest 92L?

[blp]

Model support is limited at best. Only the GFS shows a nice 850 vorticity in four days reaching the islands.

[floridasun78]

Model support is limited at best. Only the GFS shows a nice 850 vorticity in four days reaching the islands.

going move that quick? that map got it islands by 9 of july as ts

[Aric Dunn]

The chances of development are much HIGHER than that.

Of course... the chance I am referring to are the chance that it is a by the book depression, which it appears very close to being right now. I am not referring to the chance that NHC will classify it

Agreed !

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 060004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN
ATLC. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 20N32W TO 09N31W AND BOTH THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE METEOSAT-9 SAL
TRACKING PRODUCT INDICATE THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A VERY DRY
ENVIRONMENT FROM THE LOWER TO THE MIDDLE LEVELS. THIS DRY AIR IS
INHIBITING CONVECTION OR RAINSHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE
AXIS.

[floridasun78]

why nhc watching it if under very dry ENVIRONMENT ?

[cycloneye]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 060004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN
ATLC. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 20N32W TO 09N31W AND BOTH THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE METEOSAT-9 SAL
TRACKING PRODUCT INDICATE THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A VERY DRY
ENVIRONMENT FROM THE LOWER TO THE MIDDLE LEVELS. THIS DRY AIR IS
INHIBITING CONVECTION OR RAINSHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE
AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
17N16W TO 13N22W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 07N27W TO 06N35W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N35W TO
06N43W 04N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-
11N E OF 18W. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 26W-
33W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 40W.

[gatorcane]

why nhc watching it if under very dry ENVIRONMENT ?

High SSTs and little shear look favorable for development but the SAL is thick and widespread so is a big negative. It's got a chance but a small one. I think the SAL should take care of this wave and prevent development.

[Alyono]

The chances of development are much HIGHER than that.

Of course... the chance I am referring to are the chance that it is a by the book depression, which it appears very close to being right now. I am not referring to the chance that NHC will classify it

You think it may be a repeat of invest 92L?

92L, IMO, was NOT a TD

This one may be

[floridasun78]

why nhc watching it if under very dry ENVIRONMENT ?

High SSTs and little shear look favorable for development but the SAL is thick and widespread so is a big negative. It's got a chance but a small one. I think the SAL should take care of this wave and prevent development.

gfs think it be TS by leedwards by 9 of july

[Nimbus]

Probably won't be much there at -45W after it opens up, but a tropical wave could sharpen back into something after -60W.

[ouragans]

I'm not really unquiet for this tiny system in such a dry environment. This should be a rain-maker for the Leewards, but no big deal. SAL is really too important to allow any system to develop for the next 3-4 weeks

[Gustywind]

I'm not really unquiet for this tiny system in such a dry environment. This should be a rain-maker for the Leewards, but no big deal. SAL is really too important to allow any system to develop for the next 3-4 weeks

Agree with you Ouragans We should deal with some nice rain showers but no more hopefully (if it verfies first). Anyway, let's monitor the situation as usual. Glad to see you again here.

[cycloneye]

Still looking good. Saved image.

[hurricaneCW]

These waves certainly have a strong kick to them given it's early July, early start to the Cape Verde season in store?

Add a pattern of widespread Atlantic ridging and it is a recipe for trouble.

[SFLcane]

SAL always an issue in the beginning of season. As waves & disturbances roll off, environment will moisten up.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_TROPATLEAST/anim16ir.html

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS doesnt kill this off completely, keeps the low going into the islands and I think the reason for that is it stays below the SAL and that could be the ticket to development with this one

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[Hurricaneman]

This wave and low looks like it could develop, its below the SAL and it has low shear

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ics_31.png

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 96 hours with wave in Eastern Caribbean.