Global model runs discussion

[boca]

What causes upper level lows and why so many this year?

[gatorcane]

It's long-range but the 00Z ECMWF is showing a vigorous Cape Verde low rolling off Africa at 240 hours:

[cycloneye]

See loop of 12z GFS at hyperlink below. Notice the Tropical Waves that it has some of them strong.

12z GFS loop

[cycloneye]

Here is another video by Levi Cowan about how are things looking for the next 2-3 weeks.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... late-july/

[cycloneye]

Very long range but GFS has an active wave train. Let's see which of those go ahead and climb to the next step by late July.

[gatorcane]

The long-range ECMWF is also hinting at the the active wave train but sooner than the GFS with a closed low at 192 hours that develops south of the Cape Verde islands:

[cycloneye]

GFS ensembles with Eastern Atlantic wave and 94L.

[Alyono]

18Z GFS has a TD/TS approaching the Caribbean on July 21

[catskillfire51]

I'm confused why NHC's website doesn't have invest 94L on their map yet. but on another note they did post another yellow blob of african coast of 10%

[blp]

18Z GFS has a TD/TS approaching the Caribbean on July 21

Yes, and look at where that High is. It's 16 days out but it is about that time for the MDR to heat up. Let see what happens.

[tolakram]

I'm confused why NHC's website doesn't have invest 94L on their map yet. but on another note they did post another yellow blob of african coast of 10%

It's on the map. The NHC does not address Invests directly, only when a TD is declared will a specific named entity show on their maps.

[Hurricaneman]

the 18zGFS shows a frontal low at 32N 45W at 102hrs and transitions into a retrograding tropical system making landfall at the Georgia-South Carolina border at 264hrs so the players ore on the map for that, and there seems to be a strong ridge to the north of it so even if its way out there it still may need to be monitored especially if it starts retrograding

[Hurricaneman]

the 0zGFS shows the Central Atlantic Extratropical low forming at about 96hrs at 31N 45W and gradually transitions it into a tropical something and with the steering flow it would need to be watched along the SE US coast in the next week to 10 days

Makes landfall in Nova Scotia as a trough of low pressure at 11 days so around 192hrs a trough develops in the 0zGFS

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Hurricane Alexis]

the 0zGFS shows the Central Atlantic Extratropical low forming at about 96hrs at 31N 45W and gradually transitions it into a tropical something and with the steering flow it would need to be watched along the SE US coast in the next week to 10 days

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I'm confused. I don't see anything developing.

[Hurricaneman]

the 0zGFS shows the Central Atlantic Extratropical low forming at about 96hrs at 31N 45W and gradually transitions it into a tropical something and with the steering flow it would need to be watched along the SE US coast in the next week to 10 days

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I'm confused. I don't see anything developing.

Weak frontal low that like the ULL right now except this is at the surface completely cuts off and slowly moves WSW

[cycloneye]

12z GFS has a very strong wave (Maybe a TD) over the Lesser Antilles on the 22nd.

[TheStormExpert]

Yeah and look how strong the ridge is across the Atlantic! Extends from Europe through almost the full Eastern half of the U.S.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Hr 372...nuff said.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Looks like a hot last half for July if that pans. But that is a long ways out and will probably change 3 times a day for the next 15 days lol

[cycloneye]

CV season looks well underway as 95L is around and other candidates loom in the horizon. This is GFS at 192 hours.