ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[summersquall]

Per NHC, moving at 20-25 mph. Chance of development remains 30%.

From the 2am advisory:

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
20 TO 25 MPH.

[Fego]

At 72hrs, ECMWF put 95L close to PR (northeast)


Btw, GFS 00UTC, at 72 hours, do the same but close to the south of PR.

[bamajammer4eva]

Latest model plots from SFWMD

[Gustywind]

934
WHXX01 KWBC 070646
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0646 UTC SUN JUL 7 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952013) 20130707 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130707 0600 130707 1800 130708 0600 130708 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 8.2N 38.6W 9.4N 42.7W 10.8N 47.5W 12.8N 52.7W
BAMD 8.2N 38.6W 8.9N 42.7W 10.1N 46.9W 11.5N 51.1W
BAMM 8.2N 38.6W 9.0N 43.0W 10.1N 47.6W 11.6N 52.4W
LBAR 8.2N 38.6W 8.8N 42.6W 9.9N 47.0W 11.3N 51.5W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS 51KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130709 0600 130710 0600 130711 0600 130712 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.9N 57.8W 19.0N 67.7W 23.0N 74.4W 26.7N 77.2W
BAMD 13.3N 55.0W 16.5N 61.4W 18.3N 65.2W 17.9N 67.0W
BAMM 13.3N 56.9W 16.8N 65.2W 20.3N 71.6W 23.4N 74.8W
LBAR 12.8N 55.9W 16.3N 63.5W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 57KTS 63KTS 64KTS 64KTS
DSHP 57KTS 63KTS 52KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.2N LONCUR = 38.6W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 8.0N LONM12 = 34.8W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 7.7N LONM24 = 31.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 140NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Gustywind]

Orange Code

Remains at 30%.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 070548
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 25 MPH. ALTHOUGH THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION
AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IT HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 07 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N45W TO A WEAK 1009 MB SURFACE
LOW NEAR 8N37W MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE AXIS IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER...WHICH IS LIMITING
CONVECTION NEAR THE MAJORITY OF THE AXIS EXCEPT NEAR THE LOW
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WEST OF
THE LOW CENTER FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 37W-41W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Gustywind]

Increasing numbers for 95L.

07/0545 UTC 8.0N 38.5W T1.5/1.5 95L
06/2345 UTC 7.8N 36.2W T1.0/1.0 95L
06/1745 UTC 8.4N 34.7W T1.0/1.0 95L

[Gustywind]

Tracking Info For Invest 95L

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... track.html

06 GMT 07/6/13 7.7N 30.7W 25 1009 Invest
12 GMT 07/6/13 7.8N 32.6W 25 1009 Invest
18 GMT 07/6/13 7.9N 34.5W 25 1009 Invest
18 GMT 07/6/13 8.0N 34.8W 25 1009 Invest
00 GMT 07/7/13 8.2N 36.4W 25 1009 Invest
06 GMT 07/7/13 8.2N 38.6W 30 1009 Invest




http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... track.html

[Gustywind]

From Accuweather


A Few Tropical Waves in the the Atlantic Basin

http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic


7/7/2013 2:19:40 AM

A vigorous tropical wave out near 40 west and just south of 10 north is seen on satellite as solid cloud mass that has some mid and upper level rotation, but there is no closed low level circulation. This really is the most impressive wave that we have seen that far east so this season. Computer forecasts really do not show this wave developing into an organized tropical cyclone over the next few days, but given its presentation on satellite right now, it is something we need to keep an eye on as it moves westward then west-northwestward through the upcoming week.

[Hurricane Alexis]

06z ATCF. Up to 30 kts.

AL, 95, 2013070706, , BEST, 0, 82N, 386W, 30, 1009, WV,

[Airboy]

Looks pretty good organized when looking at the first sat visuals

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all. It looks like 95L had a good night as it separates from the ITCZ. It will be interesting to see how it does as that separation is more pronounced.

[Gustywind]

Cycloneye, could we have the latest visible of this morning?

[cycloneye]

12z Guidance.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1113 UTC SUN JUL 7 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952013) 20130707 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130707 1200 130708 0000 130708 1200 130709 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 8.4N 40.8W 9.8N 45.1W 11.6N 50.2W 13.9N 55.1W
BAMD 8.4N 40.8W 9.3N 45.0W 10.6N 49.2W 12.3N 53.4W
BAMM 8.4N 40.8W 9.5N 45.3W 10.8N 50.0W 12.5N 54.7W
LBAR 8.4N 40.8W 9.2N 45.0W 10.4N 49.6W 11.9N 54.1W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS 50KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130709 1200 130710 1200 130711 1200 130712 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.1N 60.3W 20.4N 69.4W 24.3N 75.1W 28.2N 76.6W
BAMD 14.0N 57.0W 16.8N 62.9W 18.1N 66.4W 18.0N 68.1W
BAMM 14.4N 59.0W 18.1N 67.0W 21.6N 72.5W 24.7N 74.5W
LBAR 13.4N 58.4W 16.9N 65.3W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 55KTS 60KTS 60KTS 60KTS
DSHP 55KTS 52KTS 59KTS 59KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.4N LONCUR = 40.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 21KT
LATM12 = 8.1N LONM12 = 36.6W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 7.8N LONM24 = 32.7W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 140NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 95, 2013070712, , BEST, 0, 84N, 408W, 30, 1009, WV

[TheBurn]

11:00 UTC RGB / Natural Color

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye, could we have the latest visible of this morning?

Here you go.

[Gustywind]

Cycloneye, could we have the latest visible of this morning?

Here you go.

http://oi43.tinypic.com/2j3k5c5.jpg

Thanks to you.

[Gustywind]

From NRL weather site:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... m&PROD=vis

20130707.1115.95LINVEST.30kts-1009mb-84N-408W.

[ouragans]

12z Best Track

AL, 95, 2013070712, , BEST, 0, 84N, 408W, 30, 1009, WV

how come the Best Track for 12z is already available?