ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Recent ASCAT.

http://imageshack.us/a/img809/6571/ojxu.jpg

Definitly not closed.

[SFLcane]

Didn't the long-range CFS from about 3 or 4 weeks ago show exactly this scenario with a weak Cape Verde system passing near or through the NE Leewards?

If so kudos for it picking this up so far out.

Sure did.. It showed a system taking a similar track to that of David.

[SFLcane]

Just don't see how this develops.. plenty of obstacles ahead.

[cycloneye]

Just don't see how this develops.. plenty of obstacles ahead.

You think when it gets west of 70W it has a better chance to develop?

[Blown Away]

It appears if 95L survives the dry/dust air of the Atlantic it will be on a track over/near the big islands. Tough road ahead IMO.

[SFLcane]

Just don't see how this develops.. plenty of obstacles ahead.

You think when it gets west of 70W it has a better chance to develop?

Conditions ahead look rough to say the least. It should start gaining some latitude soon If it doesn't close off soon it may never will. Could see some gusty squalls near the islands.

[sunnyday]

Does the mention of the SE US include Florida this time or north of Fl?
Thank you....

[Blown Away]

00Z ECMWF shows a large break in the ridge over the SE United States by next weekend:

If 95L averages 15mph over the next 6.5 days it will reach 80W, so many islands and SE CONUS could be reached before the turn into ridge.

[Blown Away]

TAFB has 95L south of PR in 72 hours as a possible cyclone and moving WNW through the Caribbean towards GOM or turn towards SFL?????

[blp]

Didn't the long-range CFS from about 3 or 4 weeks ago show exactly this scenario with a weak Cape Verde system passing near or through the NE Leewards?

If so kudos for it picking this up so far out.

Yes, the CFS did show this. I like looking at it more for the patterns. Last few weeks it was showing a ridge with a weakness around 75W which is what is happening now in the models. Last few years it correctly predicted the persistent troughs.

[Dean4Storms]

LLC on northern edge of convection. You can see it near 42W 9.8N moving WNW.....

We have a tilted system oriented SW to NE.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html

[SFLcane]

"Naked swirl alert"

[Blown Away]

[quote="SFLcane"]"Naked swirl alert"

At least we have a decent circulation now compared to yesterday and convection still popping along SE.

[Syx6sic]

Does anyone think this could form and head towards te Carolina's or Virginia area or go to the gulf?

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Does anyone think this could form and head towards te Carolina's or Virginia area or go to the gulf?

It is WAAAAAAAAAAYYYYYYYY to early to make that type of prediction. Not even sure if it will survive to the islands at this time.

[SFLcane]

[Dean4Storms]

Atlantic Ridge really has this tilted, small system not well adapt to surviving shear. Models usually have more difficulty with such small closed circulations. Going to be interesting to see if convection pops around this apparent LLC and if so will NHC go ahead and classify as a TD. I don't see how they could not!

[blp]

Atlantic Ridge really has this tilted, small system not well adapt to surviving shear. Models usually have more difficulty with such small closed circulations. Going to be interesting to see if convection pops around this apparent LLC and if so will NHC go ahead and classify as a TD. I don't see how they could not!

Yea I don't think they will upgrade anytime soon. They will probably wait till tomorrow to see if convection can persist over the LLC. The speed is a definite issue. This is quite typical for July systems in this region and most don't survive.

[TheStormExpert]

TAFB has 95L south of PR in 72 hours as a possible cyclone and moving WNW through the Caribbean towards GOM or turn towards SFL?????

Wow! Look how strong that ridge is to the north.

[crownweather]

Pretty neat model map. Do you have a direct link to this site. Want to bookmark it.