ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[gatorcane]

GFS at 180 hours...Bermuda High ridge position. It looks like a repeat of what just happened this past week with a ULL retrograding back westward in the central US because of such a powerful Bermuda high blocking it.

If you look at 144 hours to 180 hours you see the ridge building westward....

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/GFSTROPA ... ml#picture

[Evil Jeremy]

ECMWF 48 Hours Out:

[Blown Away]

TAFB position just south of Hispaniola in 72 hours.

[Evil Jeremy]

ECMWF 72 Hours Out:

[Fego]

The system is starting to divorce from the ITCZ....

lol I love the "divorce" terminology..

Make it, "in good terms". Wassup Aric?

[Hurricaneman]

looks like the Euro does nothing with it, I'm starting to think that the GFS has the right idea as to intensity

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Blinhart]

This is the first time I post this season, because this is the first system that got my nerves working up a little bit. I just hope that this system doesn't slow down too much, because if it does it could become a large and powerful system, due to the fact that the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico haven't been touched much in the past year, so there is a lot of potential energy out there for this system. I have a feeling if this system doesn't slow down it will crash into Central America, but if it does slow down, it could end up just feeding off of all the energy in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico and become a Major Hurricane hit the United States Gulf Coast in about 10 days.

[Gustywind]

Latest from SSD:
07/1745 UTC 9.8N 43.6W T2.0/2.0 95L
07/1145 UTC 9.1N 41.1W T2.0/2.0 95L
07/0545 UTC 8.0N 38.5W T1.5/1.5 95L
06/2345 UTC 7.8N 36.2W T1.0/1.0 95L
06/1745 UTC 8.4N 34.7W T1.0/1.0 95L

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track


AL, 95, 2013070718, , BEST, 0, 98N, 438W, 35, 1008, WV

Renumber shortly?

[Blinhart]

TAFB position just south of Hispaniola in 72 hours.

I really don't like the location of the system in the graph, and if she decides to slow down there could be some deviation to the South and more worrisome.

[Hurricaneman]

Best Track is showing TS winds so if it does get classified it would be Chantal so we'll see what happens in the next few hours

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Blinhart]

A lot of people are probably asking if I am a person that always thinks a system is going to hit around me, the answer is no. I Just don't think the Bermuda High will weaken enough for this system to go to sea or to the East Coast. My best guess is that this will actually run out of room to turn north and crash into Central America before it has time to slow down and build up in strength and end up in the Gulf of Mexico. It might get as strong as a Cat. 2 storm before crashing into CA.

[Evil Jeremy]

ECMWF 96:



ECMWF 120:

[meriland23]

euro is not showing much, if anything forming the next 72 hrs

[Gustywind]

From Wunderground:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... track.html

Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type

12 GMT 07/7/13 9.0N 40.8W 30 1008 Invest
18 GMT 07/7/13 9.8N 43.8W 35 1008 Invest

[SFLcane]

Possible ridging being shown by some models once it gets in southern bahamas.

edit.. another shift northward it seems on some 18z just updated

[abajan]

Our met office has issued this bulletin.

[Gustywind]

Latest from NRL:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... ROD=1km_bw

20130707.1815.95LINVEST.35kts-1008mb-98N-438W.

[floridasun78]

barbados got radar i see http://barb
adosweather.org/RadarPro/BMS_RadarDisplayer.php

[weatherwindow]

Didn't the long-range CFS from about 3 or 4 weeks ago show exactly this scenario with a weak Cape Verde system passing near or through the NE Leewards?

If so kudos for it picking this up so far out.

Good afternoon, Chris...the answer is yes, the 6/27 00Z run of the CFS did suggest the genesis of this system and a track toward the northeastern Leewards and PR. Forecast Leewards landfall on 7/11 and PR landfall on 7/12. However at the rate this system is currently travelling it may be a day or two early at those locations(if at all)...Greetings from Key West, Rich