ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[meriland23]

Do you guys think this will reach hurricane strength?

[FireBird]

Hey Abajan, thanks for posting your bulletin. I checked the TT Met Office site and was pleasantly surprised to find a similar informational bulletin, with commentary that another bulletin (though scheduled for 6pm), may follow earlier depending on progress of the low.
With most of the convection hanging south of the apparent low, I'm real interested to see if we"ll get a wash-out......

[AtlanticWind]

Do you guys think this will reach hurricane strength?

That is the big question, with the fast motion I would not expect it to reach hurricane strength in the next 3 days,but who knows?

[SFLcane]

Looks like some indications of westward wind component with low level banding into center.

[CrazyC83]

That 35 kt upgrade means it would be Chantal immediately if it develops.

[meriland23]

Is this a eye I see around 43 w and 8 n ? or am I imagining things

[Evil Jeremy]

Is this a eye I see around 43 w and 8 n ? or am I imagining things

http://i39.tinypic.com/mw4n49.jpg

Just a dry air spot. This system is far from developing an eye.

[wxman57]

Conditions in its path look increasingly hostile as it nears the East Caribbean. Dry air to its north, strong low-level easterly flow, increased wind shear. Better environment may exist once it passes the DR late this week.

[Gustywind]

Our met office has issued this bulletin.

Very informative Abajan. Thanks to you

[SapphireSea]

Looks very organized from what I can see on Sat. I get the feeling that this will be one of the first very small powerful Charley/Andrew like systems that we have seen in a while. I think that SAL has not completely been proven to stop organized tropical systems, research has shown that it does induce capping at the low-mid layers, but on the flip side this causes steep lapse rates and instability when it is pushed off or left behind. We have seen some storms really wind up despite SAL and this is probably the cause.

EDIT:

Not going to say that it's going to be at the aforemented strength I talked about. It's referencing the appearant system structure only. There could realistically be no constant LLC down there. And I do see hostile shear conditions in it's path so it's strength could be a mystery. I would GUESS maybe near term more powerful than thought, and long-term probably weaker than one would expect.

[SFLcane]

Conditions in its path look increasingly hostile as it nears the East Caribbean. Dry air to its north, strong low-level easterly flow, increased wind shear. Better environment may exist once it passes the DR late this week.

Indeed 57 carib low level jet awaits

[torrea40]

07/1745 UTC 9.8N 43.6W T2.0/2.0 95L -- Atlantic

[Hurricaneman]

07/1745 UTC 9.8N 43.6W T2.0/2.0 95L -- Atlantic

The Dvorak says tropical depression and the Best Track basically says tropical storm so if there were a reneumer it would probably be a TS

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Syx6sic]

Possible ridging being shown by some models once it gets in southern bahamas.

edit.. another shift northward it seems on some 18z just updated

Wow that looks very familiar to a lot of tracks I have seen in the past even with it this far out I may want to start getting prepared just incase

[CrazyC83]

If it stays this small, wind-pressure mismatches are possible, i.e. a hurricane with a pressure near 1000mb.

[torrea40]

07/1745 UTC 9.8N 43.6W T2.0/2.0 95L -- Atlantic

The Dvorak says tropical depression and the Best Track basically says tropical storm so if there were a reneumer it would probably be a TS

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

According to the ensemble models GFS at 2:00pm the Invest travel South or can change?

[torrea40]

From the National Hurricane Center facebook's page: "Attention turns back to the Atlantic this Sunday afternoon, where a tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic now has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next 48 hours. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches or warnings could be needed later today."

[cycloneye]

Latest from TAFB:

AL 95 201307071745 DVTS 970N 4380W TAFB 2020 ///// Banding coiling in around center from the NW.; ; Fin
AL 95 201307071745 DVTS 980N 4360W SAB 2020 ///// DT=2.0 BO CBND MET=2.0 PT=2.0 FTBO DT

[Caribwxgirl]

Well though tracking storms is exciting and all I hope this keeps up the high speed so it had trouble staying together and developing further. Hopefully it only brings some rain.

[meriland23]

Do TS and hurricanes slow down in speed? or do they stay the same as when they were born?