ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[Gustywind]

Latest from TAFB:

AL 95 201307071745 DVTS 970N 4380W TAFB 2020 ///// Banding coiling in around center from the NW.; ; Fin
AL 95 201307071745 DVTS 980N 4360W SAB 2020 ///// DT=2.0 BO CBND MET=2.0 PT=2.0 FTBO DT

What should we understand from this precious information Cycloneye? I ask you that because of many islanders want to have a better idea of what could happens during the next couple of hours and the coming days as 95L progresses westward towards the East Carib islands...

[hurricanekid416]

I think this will end up like Emily and outrun itself

[brunota2003]

If it does decide to form and do its thing...it needs to stay AWAY from a good chunk of the Southeast! Places from Florida to Ohio are beyond waterlogged right now, we don't need a tropical anything swinging around the B-High and soaking us again!

[cycloneye]

Latest from TAFB:

AL 95 201307071745 DVTS 970N 4380W TAFB 2020 ///// Banding coiling in around center from the NW.; ; Fin
AL 95 201307071745 DVTS 980N 4360W SAB 2020 ///// DT=2.0 BO CBND MET=2.0 PT=2.0 FTBO DT

What should we understand from this precious information Cycloneye? I ask you that because of many islanders want to have a better idea of what could happens during the next couple of hours and the coming days as 95L progresses westward towards the East Carib islands...

Simply put is organizing.

[Caribwxgirl]

Do TS and hurricanes slow down in speed? or do they stay the same as when they were born?

I know they can slow down in speed from how they started out or speed up for that matter. Also the slower they move from the little I know is the more they intensify.

[Caribwxgirl]

Latest from TAFB:

AL 95 201307071745 DVTS 970N 4380W TAFB 2020 ///// Banding coiling in around center from the NW.; ; Fin
AL 95 201307071745 DVTS 980N 4360W SAB 2020 ///// DT=2.0 BO CBND MET=2.0 PT=2.0 FTBO DT

What should we understand from this precious information Cycloneye? I ask you that because of many islanders want to have a better idea of what could happens during the next couple of hours and the coming days as 95L progresses westward towards the East Carib islands...

Simply put is organizing.

So how soon do you think until nhc pulls the trigger?

[Gustywind]

Latest from TAFB:

AL 95 201307071745 DVTS 970N 4380W TAFB 2020 ///// Banding coiling in around center from the NW.; ; Fin
AL 95 201307071745 DVTS 980N 4360W SAB 2020 ///// DT=2.0 BO CBND MET=2.0 PT=2.0 FTBO DT

What should we understand from this precious information Cycloneye? I ask you that because of many islanders want to have a better idea of what could happens during the next couple of hours and the coming days as 95L progresses westward towards the East Carib islands...

Simply put is organizing.

thanks for this explanation.

[SFLcane]

18z updated red consensus

[Nimbus]

As the convection wanes approaching -44W you can see down into the low level clouds and it does look like a surface circulation. I would put the center further south near 8N ATM. Thats still low latitude not really free of the ITCZ yet.

Usually as a depression forms it climbs out of the ITCZ fairly quickly with intensification but its so dry out there my forecast would be weak and west with a track south of PR and Hispaniola.

[Hurricaneman]

I think that the NHC is going to wait for recon tomorrow, but with the info they have now they could pull the trigger at 5pm today

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Dean4Storms]

It's still a mess, Anti-cyclone over the top is displaced to the south and the whole system is sheared north to south from the ridge in the Atlantic. On top of that the LLC seems to be moving along too fast to get convection stacked for any duration in the strong easterly trades. Throw in the dry air and it is hard to see 95L getting its act together from what we are seeing until it slows and/or shear lessens.








Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[AtlanticWind]

I think that the NHC is going to wait for recon tomorrow, but with the info they have now they could pull the trigger at 5pm today
Maybe , but they may want to put up watches for the islands today , so they may want to classify it
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[gatorcane]

Conditions in its path look increasingly hostile as it nears the East Caribbean. Dry air to its north, strong low-level easterly flow, increased wind shear. Better environment may exist once it passes the DR late this week.

Indeed 57 carib low level jet awaits

I see the shear across the NE Caribbean now, but isn't that due to the ULL nearing the Bahamas? As that ULL moves west, won't we see the shear head west with the ULL and conditions won't be that bad in the Eastern Caribbean?

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-rgb.html

Looks like some banding features now.

[cycloneye]

New video mainly about 95L by Levi Cowan.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... k-for-now/

[Hurricane_Luis]

From the satilite loop, looks like 95L is gaining some latitude and is moving North West.

[Blown Away]

What's up with that dark red line, it goes through Hobe Sound?? That's a crazy track...

[Nimbus]

If they wait till recon gets out there they will have a better idea of where it is going to come through the islands. It needs to jump north up out of the ITCZ pretty soon or the models will be arguing about which side of Jamaica to run the track. Too soon to sound the all clear for PR and the north side of the track always has the highest winds.

[gatorcane]

12Z Navy loop:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NGPTROPA ... sloop.html

Sends it just south of Puerto Rico, through the Dominican Republic, and just east of the Bahamas then bends it a little towards the northwest and slows it down some just north of the Bahamas.

[Hurricane Andrew]

People need to watch this...both CMC and GFS have a cane into the southeast...EURO, UKIE, and NAVGEM are nogo, for now.