ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[NDG]

Looking better on this recent TRMM pass than earlier today:

http://img5.imageshack.us/img5/3855/ptl7.jpg

http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/5092/3b56.jpg

Wow,much better yes.

This is probably the pass that made the NHC upgrade it.

[SouthDadeFish]

From what I've gathered and from SHIPS data, conditions due appear relatively favorable for intensification over the next 24-36 hours. After this time wind shear will start to increase. If Chantal can somehow manage to develop an organized inner core before wind shear starts to increase, I think she may be able to handle the shear a little better. It will definitely be an interesting storm to watch. For our friends in the islands, I certainly hope wind shear keeps this thing in check.

[SapphireSea]

From what I've gathered and from SHIPS data, conditions due appear relatively favorable for intensification over the next 24-36 hours. After this time wind shear will start to increase. If Chantal can somehow manage to develop an organized inner core before wind shear starts to increase, I think she may be able to handle the shear a little better. It will definitely be an interesting storm to watch. For our friends in the islands, I certainly hope wind shear keeps this thing in check.

I've been a bit concerned about the short-term strengthening of the storm. Hopefully as you say that the Dry environment and/or shear help keep it in check.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

It's strange to see a 35kt. tropical storm developing an eyewall. Guess that central dense overcast did it.

Will be interesting to see what recon finds tomorrow

[NDG]

I'm not buying any model data until Recon gets in there and takes in proper data to ingest to the models. Until then, Chantal bears watching.

Does recon really have a massively significant to how the GFS models play out?

Recon, especially the Gulfstream IV flights (which are rare), contribute very useful upper atmospheric information to the models.

I would say that the Gulfstream IV atmospheric sampling flights contribute more to the models than the Hurricane Hunter flights, IMO.

[Rgv20]

Looking rather healthy..

[Jevo]

0z NAVGEM (Formerly NOGAPS) +96



0z NAVGEM (Formerly NOGAPS) +120

[AtlanticWind]

Just a side note , 00 GFS brings another system towards florida after Chantal. Is this August? Did I miss A whole month

[cycloneye]

A reminder that any posts about the models for future systems may be posted at the Talking Tropics Global Models thread,thanks for your cooperation.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=104813&hilit=&p=2316307#p2316307

[AtlanticWind]

So NAVGEM keeps this south of the Islands

[SouthDadeFish]

It's strange to see a 35kt. tropical storm developing an eyewall. Guess that central dense overcast did it.

Will be interesting to see what recon finds tomorrow

I'm not sure we can call it an eyewall yet. I would like to see another pass to confirm the same pattern of organization. That convective burst definitely helped though. The key now is persistence of the convection. This probably will be easier currently with the onset of diurnal maximum.

[Evil Jeremy]

Does recon really have a massively significant to how the GFS models play out?

Recon, especially the Gulfstream IV flights (which are rare), contribute very useful upper atmospheric information to the models.

I would say that the Gulfstream IV atmospheric sampling flights contribute more to the models than the Hurricane Hunter flights, IMO.

Hence the "especially" distinction. The regular flights still do contribute some info though.

[LaBreeze]

0z NAVGEM (Formerly NOGAPS) +96



0z NAVGEM (Formerly NOGAPS) +120

How reliable is 0z NAVGEM? Just wondering how everyone feels about that particular model.

[AtlanticWind]

0z NAVGEM (Formerly NOGAPS) +96



0z NAVGEM (Formerly NOGAPS) +120

How reliable is 0z NAVGEM? Just wondering how everyone feels about that particular model.

Not very good compared to the GFS and Euro

[SFLcane]

00z canadian scrapes all of florida then into NC

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2013070800&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[summersquall]

It gets pretty complex once Chantal gets north of the islands, it may get blocked at some point . Intensity is also a big question.

All models agree it will just peter out whether a ridge builds or not. That it cause it will either crawl over DR or the Cuban mountains.. either way, causing it to diminish.

Not all models see death before the ridge may or may not build back in. NHC is speculating on possible dissipation (which is valid). However, many models suggest survival, including the 00z GFS.

It is way far out but the NHC currently forecasts at least a 30% chance of Chantal maintaining TS strength in the 120 hr timeframe and it will be close to the warm gulfstream waters around then so...hmmmm.

[Jevo]

0z NAVGEM (Formerly NOGAPS) +96

NAVGEM

How reliable is 0z NAVGEM? Just wondering how everyone feels about that particular model.

It's brand new, supposedly much higher resolution than the original NOGAPS that it replaced. Here is some information on the model

The Naval Research Lab (NRL) - Monterey has recently developed a new atmospheric forecast model, the NAVy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) to replace the existing Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS). It will initially run at T319L50 resolution (with planned resolution upgrades) and has a new and improved dynamical core. NAVGEM was transitioned to the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) and completed its Operational Test in January 2013. The results show an across the board improvement in forecast skill over NOGAPS and it will become the US Navy's new operational atmospheric forecast system on 13 March 2013 12Z. For the period 13 February - 13 March 2013, FNMOC will run Dual OPS, i.e. both NAVGEM and NOGAPS will run daily.

[AtlanticWind]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

CMC rides it up florida ,pretty strong

[summersquall]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2013070800&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

CMC rides it up florida ,pretty strong

Certainly don't like the looks of that.

[SapphireSea]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2013070800&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

CMC rides it up florida ,pretty strong

Looks like it rides it up through the Bahamas. That looks like Floyd distance from most of Florida until it goes into N.FL/GA.