ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[AtlanticWind]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2013070800&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

CMC rides it up florida ,pretty strong

Looks like it rides it up through the Bahamas. That looks like Floyd distance from most of Florida until it goes into N.FL/GA.

Pretty close though , for that far out in the model run.

[Jevo]

0z GEM - (Canadian) +24



0z GEM - (Canadian) +48




0z GEM - (Canadian) +72

[Jevo]

0z GEM - (Canadian) +96



0z GEM - (Canadian) +120



0z GEM - (Canadian) +144

[Jevo]

0z GEM - (Canadian) +150 inland with Georgia on her mind

[BigB0882]

Another one with the ridge building back in. Timing timing timing.

[SapphireSea]

The excruciating moist and clear day across Florida will be murder with that track, I despise record Heat Index values. Thing needs to recurve and do it farther away. Shoo. Or better yet dissipate.

But Jokes Aside,
I hope that Canadian does not pan out. That's a rare area hit, I don't think many people know what a storm like that is. Then again its the Canadian. Also on the ridge breakdown wagon for synoptic features.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Just an FYI to everyone. In reading the posts I've heard Emily 2005 mentioned, and for those who have tracked these storms for a while know full well that ALL of the modeling totally missed the rapid deepening that Emily undertook upon entering the EC. In fact, the forecast was quite similar to Chantal's. Although modeling is much better now (we would hope)...especially with intensity they can miss wildly. Emily 2005 was a record setting CAT5 Hurricane traveling through the Caribbean sea that nobody saw coming. Not that that this looks to happen now...just remember that intensity forecasts lack much skill far out. A 100 mile deviation either way will make a tremendous difference in intensity.

This is not a forecast only my opinion

[summersquall]

NHC:

AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.5 WEST. CHANTAL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND THIS SAME RAPID
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHANTAL
SHOULD APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATER ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

[SapphireSea]

Just an FYI to everyone. In reading the posts I've heard Emily 2005 mentioned, and for those who have tracked these storms for a while know full well that ALL of the modeling totally missed the rapid deepening that Emily undertook upon entering the EC. In fact, the forecast was quite similar to Chantal's. Although modeling is much better now (we would hope)...especially with intensity they can miss wildly. Emily 2005 was a record setting CAT5 Hurricane traveling through the Caribbean sea that nobody saw coming. Not that that this looks to happen now...just remember that intensity forecasts lack much skill far out. A 100 mile deviation either way will make a tremendous difference in intensity.

This is not a forecast only my opinion

The shear situation right now is different than Emily. Emily had a few pockets of near zero to 10kts hear around her the whole trip. In this case, we have Chantal in a small pocket of low shear, but I don't see that wall of shear in E Carrib going away quick enough, although most of it is associated with the ULL approching S. FL. If the ULL moves out of the way a bit faster then things may improve, but as it stands it's not likely. Its short-term strengthening in the next 24 hours that needs to be looked at very closely.

[Andrew92]

Just an FYI to everyone. In reading the posts I've heard Emily 2005 mentioned, and for those who have tracked these storms for a while know full well that ALL of the modeling totally missed the rapid deepening that Emily undertook upon entering the EC. In fact, the forecast was quite similar to Chantal's. Although modeling is much better now (we would hope)...especially with intensity they can miss wildly. Emily 2005 was a record setting CAT5 Hurricane traveling through the Caribbean sea that nobody saw coming. Not that that this looks to happen now...just remember that intensity forecasts lack much skill far out. A 100 mile deviation either way will make a tremendous difference in intensity.

This is not a forecast only my opinion

I absolutely agree. I don't think conditions are as ideal as 2005 to say the least, but as I mentioned earlier, every Main Development Region storm that went into or through the Caribbean managed to become a hurricane. Even more oddly, only one failed to become a major hurricane.

Of course, none of these actually made landfall in Hispaniola either, but I think Chantal has a much better chance of becoming a hurricane than some are thinking.

-Andrew92

[meriland23]

when is the euro due ?

[southerngale]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 080533
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
200 AM EDT MON JUL 08 2013

...CHANTAL RACING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.1N 48.5W
ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* DOMINICA
* SAINT LUCIA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAINT VINCENT

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE IN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES ON MONDAY MORNING.

INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
CHANTAL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.5 WEST. CHANTAL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND THIS SAME RAPID
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHANTAL
SHOULD APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATER ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY.

RAINFALL...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[SapphireSea]

Just an FYI to everyone. In reading the posts I've heard Emily 2005 mentioned, and for those who have tracked these storms for a while know full well that ALL of the modeling totally missed the rapid deepening that Emily undertook upon entering the EC. In fact, the forecast was quite similar to Chantal's. Although modeling is much better now (we would hope)...especially with intensity they can miss wildly. Emily 2005 was a record setting CAT5 Hurricane traveling through the Caribbean sea that nobody saw coming. Not that that this looks to happen now...just remember that intensity forecasts lack much skill far out. A 100 mile deviation either way will make a tremendous difference in intensity.

This is not a forecast only my opinion

I absolutely agree. I don't think conditions are as ideal as 2005 to say the least, but as I mentioned earlier, every Main Development Region storm that went into or through the Caribbean managed to become a hurricane. Even more oddly, only one failed to become a major hurricane.

Of course, none of these actually made landfall in Hispaniola either, but I think Chantal has a much better chance of becoming a hurricane than some are thinking.

-Andrew92

Chantal has potential to be a threat in near term. And, no. 2004's Earl would beg to differ about that. Similar shear situation. Pockets of low shear, but there was some on the islands. That and fast movement can do it in.

[lester]

when is the euro due ?

it's running now

[Evil Jeremy]

when is the euro due ?

It's currently running. The initialization was faulty though, basically didn't show Chantal at all.

[Cyclenall]

This was my reaction to the TWO at 8:00 pm: (30% jump in one cycle?) and then when I saw TS Chantal on the S2K map . I thought it was a TC much eariler but seeing the NHC pounce so swiftly was such a refreshing thing. There is a lot to be said about this and I really loved Andrew92's very long post, a very good insight and not too far from my vibes for this one. I think this is a very unique topical cyclone from a historical perspective and there is big question marks for how this will play out. There really isn't many storms comparable to this one in timeframe and track. We've seen storms like this often in August and this track pops up every year now but for July 7 its pretty new. If the forecast track is shifted way to the west I guess its like Dennis from 2005.

I highly doubt the current forecast track will hold, sometimes storms like this are more than difficult to predict. No specific model mentioned in the discussion. If it were to pan out, Haiti would be back into the nightmare zone once again with flooding. It shows a TS just north of Cuba but then a TD? Can't say I understand that one.

Lets also consider this, NO model support for it less than 48 hours ago and even still somewhat now. I can't remember the last time this happened. My post about the possibility of this happening panned out. All that was showing was a vort on the GFS. What does this mean? Well, anything could occur. I even recall reading how one professional thought less than 48 hours ago that this could slam into SA. It was very far south to start and is Bertha like in "region". This is going to be a neat one to follow.

Some trivia, both Dennis and Emily from 2005 had their first advisories at 11 pm like Chantal now. Also both in a similar area and time-frame as this. Chantal however started as a TS while the former two TDs.

Chantal looks very good this morning. Its shape is improving with some small bands occurring. If recon happens to find an eyewall in there that would be sick. Also, -80ºC tops near the center, didn't see that coming.

A local TV Met. here in Miami said earlier that 95L is nearly a tropical storm.

Looking back at this I wonder if that Met had ties with the NHC because I assume not too many knew the NHC was going full at 11 pm like that.

Wonder if they will go 03L TD or 03L Chantal. Probobly the former. It is maintaining convection well its probably safe to call that.

Looks like TD. A good call, best describes what what is seen.

Wrong .

[Evil Jeremy]

NHC track now south of the consensus. Expect the track to shift north at the next advisory.

[Alyono]

NHC track now south of the consensus. Expect the track to shift north at the next advisory.

TCs often track south of the model consensus in this type of environment. Besides, the models are SLOW. This thing may even accelerate a bit.

This system actually reminds me of Chantal from 2001.

[Hurricane Alexis]

06z ATCF:

AL, 03, 2013070806, , BEST, 0, 101N, 484W, 35, 1007, TS

[Hurricane Alexis]

NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES OVER
THE FORECAST TRACK AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING.
CONFIDENCE IN THE 3-5 DAY INTENSITY FORECAST...HOWEVER...IS NOT
HIGH.

Now we know why the NHC forecasts weakening after exiting Cuba.