ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[Hurricane Alexis]

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Track also shifted very slightly to the east.

[southerngale]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 080835
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
500 AM EDT MON JUL 08 2013

...CHANTAL CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.4N 49.5W
ABOUT 705 MI...1130 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* DOMINICA
* SAINT LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE
* GUADELOUPE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAINT VINCENT

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE IN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
CHANTAL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.5 WEST. CHANTAL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF CHANTAL SHOULD APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATER ON
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY.

RAINFALL...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH





-------------------------------------------------------





000
WTNT23 KNHC 080834
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
0900 UTC MON JUL 08 2013

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* DOMINICA
* SAINT LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE
* GUADELOUPE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAINT VINCENT

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE IN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
CHANTAL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 49.5W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 49.5W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 48.4W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 11.4N 53.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 12.9N 57.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 14.6N 62.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 16.2N 66.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.0N 73.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 22.5N 76.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 25.5N 77.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.4N 49.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH





------------------------------------------------------





000
WTNT43 KNHC 080836
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
500 AM EDT MON JUL 08 2013

CHANTAL HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS. CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT YET WELL
DEFINED...AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS CURRENTLY A LITTLE
RAGGED-LOOKING IN APPEARANCE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB
REMAIN 2.5...SO THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. THE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE AREA IS NOT STRONG AT THIS
TIME...BUT THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT WESTERLY SHEAR WILL
INCREASE IN 1-2 DAYS. ALSO...CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THAT TROPICAL
CYCLONES THAT MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE
DEEP TROPICS HAVE DIFFICULTY STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS. BEYOND
2 DAYS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT CHANTAL WILL HAVE INTERACTED WITH THE
LAND MASSES OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE
WEAKENING IN THE 3-4 DAY TIME FRAME. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES OVER
THE FORECAST TRACK AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING.
CONFIDENCE IN THE 3-5 DAY INTENSITY FORECAST...HOWEVER...IS NOT
HIGH.

LATEST SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT A RAPID WESTWARD MOTION...
280/23...IS CONTINUING. THERE ARE NO BIG CHANGES TO THE TRACK
FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. CHANTAL IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH OF A
PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE CELL OVER THE SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLANTIC SHOULD RESULT IN A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IN 2-3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD LEAD TO A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND TO THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS...THROUGH 48
HOURS. AT 3-5 DAYS...THE NHC TRACK IS SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY EAST
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE GFS...ONE OF THE FEW DYNAMICAL MODELS TO
MAINTAIN A COHERENT VORTEX THROUGH DAY 5...IS FARTHER TO THE EAST
OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 10.4N 49.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 11.4N 53.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 12.9N 57.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 14.6N 62.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 16.2N 66.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 19.0N 73.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 22.5N 76.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 25.5N 77.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[chaser1]

Well, here's my take on Chantal. For starters, banding features continue to improve in appearance. Chantal has seemingly established a fairly stacked COC relative to the consistant convection which I might add, seems anything but diurnal in nature. While the overall envelope of the system is not at all "tiny", the inner core does appear to be fairly small and tight. I just do not see any significant issues with upper level shear over the next 48 hours. If I were to pretend that this were August, and then take a tight small tropical storm with a co-located anticyclone above, and further assume that low level convergent & area SST dynamics were favorable, that would likely predict this to develop fairly quickly - especially given the storms relative small core. That all said and contrary to the latest NHC forecast (5:00am Cyclone discussion claimed little appearant change in current or forecast intensity), I would anticipate that Chantal might surprise everyone with a well defined eye between 24-36 hours from now. Any significant deepening might cause her forward motion to slow slightly. Keep in mind as well, should some greater than expected strengthening occur, it's small core might also be the cause of a quicker demise if Chantal does incur any increased shear in a couple days and especially when eventual interaction with land occurs. Chantal would have to "thread the needle" & avoid most of the hefty mountainous terrain of Haiti and E. Cuba for its small core to survive.

While those in the islands might have to contend with a fairly narrow swath of tropical storm or hurricane conditions, of greatest interest might be what future tropical systems may Chantal be a harbinger of .

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I have a few additional things to note.

First off, it is indeed true that of the five storms to become hurricanes after forming in the Main Development Region, that four became category 3's. However, it just hit me that two of them were in 2005, where conditions were extraordinarily favorable in July for storms to rapidly intensify in the Caribbean, as Dennis and Emily did. The two Bertha's, which were the other two to become majors, did not sustain that intensity, holding it for just 12-24 hours each. So after reviewing that some more, indeed it can't be ruled out that Chantal can become a major hurricane, but it likely wouldn't be for very long.

Also, this storm is looking quite comparable in track, speed of track, and intensity for Bertha in 1996 as it was forming. Bertha was trekking along at a very similar rapid rate of speed and had some issues intensifying in the early going. Bertha also did not slow down quickly, yet even while moving that fast still gradually managed to intensify after the first day or so. Conditions may have been more favorable for Bertha than they are now, and the one poster who brought up Earl in 2004 has a good point that Chantal might very well fizzle instead. Indeed, some models have had a hard time keeping this storm. I am noticing the GFS is holding onto this now though and I can't forget how well that model did as a whole last year.

Lastly, you really have to take a look at the tracks of Bertha in 1996 and Dennis. Then, look at Chantal's cone. It is very eerily right almost in the middle between the two paths. All this does is makes a Hispaniola strike all the more plausible if it goes as predicted in the early going. I would probably label Bertha as the more likely analog due to the similar genesis and the strong possibility of tracking into the Bahamas as opposed to the Gulf of Mexico. However, this still looks quite poised to follow a similar track to Dennis early on as well.

-Andrew92

[GCANE]

VIS Sat showing some overshooting tops firing in the COC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 080215.jpg


A classic protected pouch in a sea of dry mid-level air.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html


Very impressive for this time of year.

[Blown Away]

Models have shifted more right over Hispaniola. Chantal could end up skirting the N coast of Hispaniola, but regardless the upper air environment is predicted to be hostile N of islands.

[GCANE]

Steady climb on ADT. Raw T# currently at 4.0

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt03L.html

[GCANE]

Steady intensification on Microwave loop

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... splay.html

[chaser1]

Models have shifted more right over Hispaniola. Chantal could end up skirting the N coast of Hispaniola, but regardless the upper air environment is predicted to be hostile N of islands.

Oddly, in spite of models shifting a bit to the right....I was going to suggest that perhaps Chantal might trek a bit more to the "left", then right. There was an obvious gain in latitude that has occured during the short term gain in organization, however appears to me that it might be shifting a bit more westward again. As far south as this system is, the strength and orientation of the mid level high just does not appear to me to be in place to influence a more WNW heading quite yet. Perhaps a good longer look at vis. satellite might shed some further light on over all structure and motion.

[Hurricaneman]

I have a weird feeling that recon will find a 65mph storm when they get there based on microwave data

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[GCANE]

I have a weird feeling that recon will find a 65mph storm when they get there based on microwave data

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Me too

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS barely shows anything at initialization when there is clearly a tropical storm so this cant be used for intensity, but the track is towards Florida so the SE US needs to monitor the progress of Chantal

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Gustywind]

Tropical Storm Chantal Develops in Atlantic

Kristina Pydynowski

By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist

July 08, 2013; 3:10 AM

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... o/15010525


The Atlantic Basin has been void of a tropical depression or storm since mid-June, until Sunday evening that is.

Tropical Storm Chantal has developed in the Atlantic Ocean and is currently 705 miles east-southeast of Barbados.

The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center has been keeping a close eye on this tropical system over the past few days as it has been moving from near Africa across the Atlantic Ocean.

As the wave progressed westward over the weekend, it encountered warmer waters near the Caribbean. This helped it develop into what is now Tropical Storm Chantal.

The fast forward motion of Chantal should hinder any significant development as it is expected to maintain its status as a tropical storm over the next several days.

Chantal will continue to track to the west and northwest through midweek, passing over the Windward and southern Leeward islands on Tuesday. The threat for flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas will accompany Chantal as it moves across these islands.

Additionally, tropical storm force winds will potentially cause tree and minor structural damage, as well as power outages.

Although Chantal is expected to remain at tropical storm strength, the warm waters of the Caribbean may help it intensify to a weak category one hurricane.

By midweek, Chantal will encounter stronger wind shear (disruptive winds above the surface) and will start to weaken. This weakening will occur around the same time that nears Jamaica, Haiti, Hispaniola and Cuba.

Even though the mountainous terrain of these islands should deter Chantal from strengthening, these islands may still be faced with the danger of flooding rain and mudslides at midweek.

Later in the week, it is possible that the wave enhances the shower and thunderstorm activity across the Florida Peninsula.

Nearly 2.5 weeks have passed since a tropical storm roamed the Atlantic Basin, when Tropical Storm Barry crossed from the northwestern Caribbean to the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

[cycloneye]

I have a weird feeling that recon will find a 65mph storm when they get there based on microwave data

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Me too

Here is that microwave.

[RL3AO]

Tropical waves developing east of 50W on July 7th. Gonna be a long season...

[Hurricane Alexis]

GFS keeps changing solution in regards to what it does after the islands. So I'm not buying anything yet.

[Nimbus]

Chantal was traveling west at 26 mph so winds in the northern quadrant would be enhanced.
Coming together very quickly with its moisture envelope in place which is unusual for a storm this early in the season. NHC calling for weakening from shear down the road makes sense these near perfect conditions for development can't last. The islands at the latitude of Barbados got their warnings in plenty of time, still thinking Barbados might be on the strong side of the storm.

Don't know if the models even have Chantals long range track on the correct side of Florida yet. looks like Chantal may stay south of the 11 degree latitude line for a while and that would change the models by this evening.

[RL3AO]

Looks to be getting even more organized the past few hours. Very impressive banding on the NW side.

[summersquall]

[TheBurn]

10:00 UTC RGB / Natural Color


10:36 VIS / IR (Day / Night)