ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[WeatherGuesser]

I know it's early, but I hope that track is wrong. The east coast really doesn't need it. Not even remnants.

[NDG]

Latest T numbers are unchanged.

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
08/1145 UTC 10.7N 50.6W T2.0/2.5 CHANTAL -- Atlantic

[Blown Away]

It's hard to tell, but the circulation center may be NW of the NHC position - out ahead of the convection. Note the outflow boundaries moving away from Chantal in the northern semicircle. Not a sign of strengthening.

If Chantal avoids Hispaniola N or S are you confident the upper level winds are going to weaken Chantal in Bahamas?

[GCANE]

Small warm core at 0.5C, 12km altitude

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 1307080654

[GCANE]

Moderate 200mb PV anomaly ahead may put a lid on any big LL vorticity spin up in the next 24 hrs.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8vor1.GIF

[GCANE]

Latest pass from F-18 showing high rain rate. Will likely continue to heat the core.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... W.99pc.jpg

[adam0983]

Does anyone think that Tropical Storm Chantal will fall apart due to its high forward speed? Most tropical storms cant survive for very long at speeds over 20 mph.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track up to 40kts.

AL, 03, 2013070812, , BEST, 0, 106N, 506W, 40, 1005, TS

[Frank2]

It's a common outcome for systems that are embedded in very storng easterlies - the LLC outruns the convection and the system weakens, so we'll see but as the other poster said the center already seems to be west of the convection...

Frank

[Blown Away]

Maybe just position adjustments and not a real WNW, but Chantal is gaining latitude...

[Aric Dunn]

been away for a the past about 24hr.. though im not surprised they upgraded. now the tricky part...

[Blown Away]

12z models, in paticular the TVCN consensus has shifted right and if the trend continues maybe Chantal skirts or misses Hispaniola/Cuba to the north.

[torrea40]

been away for a the past about 24hr.. though im not surprised they upgraded. now the tricky part...

Really..???????????????????????????
12z Best Track.

AL, 03, 2013070812, , BEST, 0, 106N, 506W, 40, 1005, TS

[wxman57]

It's hard to tell, but the circulation center may be NW of the NHC position - out ahead of the convection. Note the outflow boundaries moving away from Chantal in the northern semicircle. Not a sign of strengthening.

If Chantal avoids Hispaniola N or S are you confident the upper level winds are going to weaken Chantal in Bahamas?

I think its biggest problem now is the very rapid forward speed. That's likely preventing the core from aligning vertically with the LLC. It may not slow down until it passes 65-70W.

[Gustywind]

been away for a the past about 24hr.. though im not surprised they upgraded. now the tricky part...

Aric , what are you best thoughts concerning Chantal? I ask you that because of islanders in the Windwards or Leewards are a bit surprised by the way Chantal continue to race towards these islands, especially a this period ( July).

[SFLcane]

Chantal does have some descent banding on satellite BUT that forward speed has to come a halt if it wants to develope.

[jlauderdal]

I would much rather be on the NHC line at this point, knowing that models usually change this far out.

error gets a little a better each year and occasionally a 5 day track is "good" but i will take being on the bulls eye at 5 days all the time. This system has several large barriers to overcome before anyone on the SE coast needs to worry about a track. First up, the forward speed is really a problem today then land then shear...good luck chantal.

[SFLcane]

[Aric Dunn]

been away for a the past about 24hr.. though im not surprised they upgraded. now the tricky part...

Aric , what are you best thoughts concerning Chantal? I ask you that because of islanders in the Windwards or Leewards are a bit surprised by the way Chantal continue to race towards these islands, especially a this period ( July).

Dont think there will be any rapid intensification in the time it has left before the islands. Rain gusty winds probably be about it. it might get to 60 mph when approaching the islands.

[Gustywind]

been away for a the past about 24hr.. though im not surprised they upgraded. now the tricky part...

Aric , what are you best thoughts concerning Chantal? I ask you that because of islanders in the Windwards or Leewards are a bit surprised by the way Chantal continue to race towards these islands, especially a this period ( July).

Dont think there will be any rapid intensification in the time it has left before the islands. Rain gusty winds probably be about it. it might get to 60 mph when approaching the islands.

Thanks to you , we appreciate your nice explanation. Anyway, us in the islands included PR, have to be on our guard! Meteo-France Martinica expected tommorow morning a direct impact of TS Chantal near Martinica . Whereas, Guadeloupe could be more than concerned because of the extension of the TS winds. We have to wait and see how Chantal progresses.

I will keep you informed as usual and as possible.