ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[SFLcane]

Game over soon?

[Aric Dunn]

microwave showing a quite lop sided system the circ on the far northern edge of the convection... still some dry air/sal affecting it.

[SFLcane]

Were are the real cyclones in this part of the world? Indeed llc is north of wannabe convection. Thinking of moving to w-pac.

Hope season has better to offer in a few weeks.

[cycloneye]

Were are the real cyclones in this part of the world? Indeed llc is north of wannabe convection. Thinking of moving to w-pac.

North Atlantic ACE is very low (2.0925 units) so far compared to EPAC and WPAC.

[wxman57]

Chantal is also right in the middle of a large suppressed phase of a convectively-coupled Kelvin wave, as indicated by the red contours on the map below. It may struggle until it passes the wave.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ven ... lyses.html

[SFLcane]

Were are the real cyclones in this part of the world? Indeed llc is north of wannabe convection. Thinking of moving to w-pac.

North Atlantic ACE is very low (2.0925 units) so far compared to EPAC and WPAC.

Probably looking at a naked swirl in a few hrs.

[blp]

Were are the real cyclones in this part of the world? Indeed llc is north of wannabe convection. Thinking of moving to w-pac.

Hope season has better to offer in a few weeks.

Be careful you might retract that statement in a week or two . You can't expect much more from an early July system in the MDR. It has been fun to watch since it virtually had no model support up until yesterday.

[SouthDadeFish]

Chantal is also right in the middle of a large suppressed phase of a convectively-coupled Kelvin wave, as indicated by the red contours on the map below. It may struggle until it passes the wave.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ven ... lyses.html

Nice catch. It will take a while for that wave to propagate past the storm. Chantal doesn't look very impressive at the moment.

[SFLcane]

Were are the real cyclones in this part of the world? Indeed llc is north of wannabe convection. Thinking of moving to w-pac.

Hope season has better to offer in a few weeks.

Be careful you might retract that statement in a week or two . You can't expect much more from an early July system in the MDR. It has been fun to watch since it virtually had no model support up until yesterday.

Oh iam loving it! Infact its a sign in my book of a rather active season in the cards.

[Blown Away]

At a minimum Chantal's going to bring some nice gusty TS winds to the islands and then once north of Hispaniola it appears if anything is left of Chantal she will put the brakes on and begin moving towards Florida and maybe into the GOM??? Crazy model turns around day 5/6...

[Aric Dunn]

Chantal is also right in the middle of a large suppressed phase of a convectively-coupled Kelvin wave, as indicated by the red contours on the map below. It may struggle until it passes the wave.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ven ... lyses.html

Nice catch. It will take a while for that wave to propagate past the storm. Chantal doesn't look very impressive at the moment.

yeah looking at the timing about 24 to 30hr though less to get through the peak and the forward speed is going to do a number on it..

[cycloneye]

Even if Chantal opens up,the message that only it's presence sends is not good for those of us who live in Hurricane alley.

[Gustywind]

Latest news in Guadeloupe given our local media, RCI (Radio Carib International) press article.


Vigilance yellow while the TT* Chantal is rapidly approaching

July 8, 2013 | 07 H28

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... drCFUiELIU

Guadeloupe was placed in yellow vigilance for strong winds, heavy rains and storms and dangerous sea to the approach of the storm tropical Chantal.


At 5:00 local, the center of Chantal was located by 10.4 ° N, 30.8 ° N, or about 1400 km southeast of Guadeloupe. It quickly moves to the West-North-West at 43 km/h. It will cross our islands tomorrow, Tuesday. Time will degrade the early morning with the first showers. The
rains intensify at midday. These rains will result in important rollups and will be accompanied by thunderstorms and wind gusts. A lull in the evening.

The wind is stronger Tuesday morning. It blows from Northeast between 30 and 40 km/h on average and 60 km/h the afternoon by switching to the Southeast with gusts to 100 km/h. It decays to 40 km/h at night. The sea becomes strong and chopped with lows exceeding 3 m in the Atlantic, 2 m 50 in channels.

*TT: Tempête Tropicale (french) means Tropical Storm/

[Jevo]

06z HWRF Track and Intensity

[adam0983]

Tropical Storm Chantal must slow its forward speed if it wants to survive. Lets hope the Tropical Storm Chantal moves faster and faster and falls apart to an open wave and affects no one. Just an opinion not a forecast.

[Blown Away]

If Chantal survives next 72 hours and avoids Hispaniola's heart and gets into the Bahamas around 120 hours, it could get interesting. HWRF shows intensification at 120 hours... Lots of if's, but most cyclones have to fight some during their life...

[cycloneye]

Off-Topic=Go to Talking Tropics forum and read a good discussion by Dr Jeff Masters about why Chantal may be a bad omen for the rest of the season.Go here.

[NDG]

Latest pass, shows Chantal's LLC just NNW of the deep convection, not as far north and west as some of you might think, IMO.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... egreeticks

[ROCK]

Latest pass, shows Chantal's LLC just NNW of the deep convection, not as far north and west as some of you might think, IMO.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... egreeticks

you can see it on the RGB sat view.....semi exposed but did fire off some convection....

[Blown Away]

Latest pass, shows Chantal's LLC just NNW of the deep convection, not as far north and west as some of you might think, IMO.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... egreeticks

you can see it on the RGB sat view.....semi exposed but did fire off some convection....

It appears a slight northerly component to the W movement now...