ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[HurricaneFrances04]

She has been maintaining that band to her west for about 24 hours now. Keeping the environment ahead of her moist?

[TheBurn]

Even if Chantal opens up,the message that only it's presence sends is not good for those of us who live in Hurricane alley.

+1... (where's the 'Like' button?)

[Gustywind]

Tropical Storm Chantal Forms in Atlantic; Warnings Issued
weather.com

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hur ... e-20130703

Tropical Storm Chantal formed in the tropical Atlantic Ocean late Sunday night (Eastern U.S. time) and is racing west toward the Lesser Antilles.

The system developed as a strong tropical wave with tropical storm force winds before finally developing a closed circulation late Sunday night, thus bypassing the tropical depression phase and becoming Tropical Storm Chantal straightaway.

Tropical storm warnings have been issued for Barbados, Dominica, Saint Lucia, Martinique and Guadeloupe. A tropical storm watch is in effect for Saint Vincent. Additional islands in the Lesser Antilles may go under watches and warnings Monday as Chantal approaches. Tropical storm conditions are expected in these areas by early Tuesday.

After crossing the Lesser Antilles, Chantal is expected to affect portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Cuba (see the latest projected path map below).

Residents in the mainland U.S. will have to pay attention to this system. The current forecast takes the center of Chantal over the Bahamas Friday into early Saturday, but given the margin of error in the forecast, parts of Florida could be affected as well at the end of the workweek.

[pcolaman]

I am not buying anything past 5 days right now. Just don't see the that ridge breaking down that quick. The high has been pretty steady so far. I look for the models to trend back toward the west in a few days due to the speed .Look at the years past with the westward march!!! Just my opinion ..

[Evil Jeremy]

How about lets not mark Chantal's grave so quickly.

Connection starting to refire over the quickly moving LLC
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[adam0983]

This storm might go into central America if it keeps moving this fast. Just an opinion not a forecast.

[tolakram]

We see it all the time with fast moving systems like Chantal. Convection will refire after the center overruns. The only real question is how intense Chantal will be when it hits the first set of islands. If conditions are favorable enough then I see Chantal continuing to slowly strengthen while is pulses. Seeing the center outrun the convection should be expected, IMO.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Gustywind]

Tropical Storm Chantal: a Likely Harbinger of an Active Atlantic Hurricane Season

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2456

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 14:02 GMT le 08 juillet 2013 +18

Tropical Storm Chantal is speeding westwards at 26 mph towards a Tuesday encounter with the Lesser Antilles Islands. Satellite loops show that Chantal has plenty of spin, with several well-developed low-level spiral bands that have gradually increased their heavy thunderstorm activity this morning. However, Chantal is fighting dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL). The heavy thunderstorm activity near Chantal's center is rather thin, and there are virtually no heavy thunderstorms on the storm's north side, where upper-level northwesterly winds are creating light to moderate wind shear of 5 - 15 knots, and driving dry air into the storm. This dry air is readily apparent on water vapor satellite loops. Ocean temperatures are fairly warm, though, at 27.5 - 28°C. There have not been any hurricane hunter missions into Chantal yet, but an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft deployed to St. Croix on Sunday, and is scheduled to investigate Chantal on Monday afternoon.


Forecast for Chantal
The 8 am EDT Monday forecast from the SHIPS model predicts that Chantal will experience low to moderate shear through Tuesday afternoon as it heads west-northwest at 25 mph towards Hispaniola. With ocean temperatures expected to warm to 28°C during that time, Chantal has the potential to intensify to a 65 mph tropical storm before hitting Hispaniola. Working against intensification will be the fast forward speed of the storm--tropical storms moving faster than 20 mph in the deep tropics usually have trouble intensifying. In addition, the Eastern Caribbean is an area where the trade winds accelerate, helping drive sinking air that discourages tropical storm intensification. Dry air will also slow down the intensification process, and I don't see Chantal making it to hurricane strength before interacting with the mountains of Hispaniola and/or Cuba on Tuesday night and Wednesday. This interaction may be able to destroy the storm, since wind shear is also expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, Tuesday night through Thursday. Chantal has the potential to cause big problems for Haiti, which is highly vulnerable to flash flooding due to the lack of vegetation on the deforested mountains. However, there is a lot of dry air to the west of Chantal, which may act to keep rainfall totals in Haiti down to a manageable 2 - 4". Over 300,000 people are still homeless and living in makeshift tent camps in Haiti, three years after the great 2010 earthquake.

Once Chantal crosses Hispaniola and enters the Bahamas late this week, the trough of low pressure pulling the storm to the northwest is expected to lift out. It is unclear at this point whether or not this trough will be strong enough to pull Chantal out to sea, or whether the storm might be forced back to the northwest into the U.S. East Coast by high pressure building in.

[Blown Away]

Looks like Chantal crossed 11N... Interested to see if that tracks shifts right days 3-5...

[Evil Jeremy]

11am is out. TS watch for PR. Start prepping cycloneye!

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
1100 AM AST MON JUL 08 2013

...CHANTAL STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 51.7W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING
VIEQUES AND CULEBRA

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* DOMINICA
* SAINT LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE
* GUADELOUPE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAINT VINCENT
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE IN THE WATCH AREA...USUALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND EASTERN
CUBA...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHANTAL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA WITHIN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.7 WEST. CHANTAL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/H...AND A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF CHANTAL SHOULD REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY TUESDAY...AND MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATER ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART






TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
1100 AM AST MON JUL 08 2013

CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH FRAGMENTED CURVED BANDS
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...ALTHOUGH THE CORE
CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SOME. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF TAFB...SAB...ADT...AND AMSU SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATE THAT
CHANTAL HAS DEVELOPED SOME WEAK ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS A RATHER BRISK 280/23 KT. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. CHANTAL IS
FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A
STRONG DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BY DAY 3
AND BEYOND...A VIGOROUS MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF
THE BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND MERGE WITH A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...CREATING A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE BAHAMAS. CHANTAL IS FORECAST TO
SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD BY 72 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES THIS
DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE WEAKNESS ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...CLOSE TO THE GFS AND FSSE MODELS.

OTHER THAN THE FAST FORWARD SPEED OF CHANTAL...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SOME MODEST
STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE
CYCLONE REMAINS UNDERNEATH A 200 MB RIDGE AXIS. INTERACTION WITH
THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA IN ABOUT
THREE DAYS...COUPLED WITH INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...IS EXPECTED TO CAUSED TO CHANTAL TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY
DAY 3...AND CONTINUE INTO DAYS 4 AND 5 AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
UNDERNEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL AND THE FSSE MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 10.9N 51.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 12.0N 55.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 13.6N 59.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 15.2N 64.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 16.8N 68.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 19.8N 74.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 23.3N 76.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 26.0N 78.1W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Decomdoug]

Looks like the projected path is right up the spine of the Dominican Rep. There won't be much left.

Uploaded with ImageShack.com

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... _NL_sm.gif

[cycloneye]

11am is out. TS watch for PR. Start prepping cycloneye!

Well,here the main problem is the rain as this island has been thru numerous flooding events.

[Blown Away]

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
1100 AM AST MON JUL 08 2013

...CHANTAL STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 51.7W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

Slowed slightly and now WNW...

[Blown Away]

Looks like the projected path is right up the spine of the Dominican Rep. There won't be much left.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... _NL_sm.gif

On that path, your right, but keep in mind the path has shifted right past 2 advisories and won't take much to skim N coast and miss all the Hispaniola/Cuba mountains..

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Slowed slightly and now WNW...

If this becomes a trend over the next couple updates, Chantal becomes a whole new monster.

[hurricanefloyd5]

chances of this thing pushing back west into the Central Florida area mainly Orlando would be what. and chances of this becoming a strong tropical storm or hurricane is what

[Jevo]

12z GFS Initialized



12z GFS +24

[TheStormExpert]

Looks as if the track shifted very slightly farther west just after 4 days out. The models are now bending to the west once Chantal gets east of North/Central FL.

[WeatherGuesser]

Hope season has better to offer in a few weeks.

I hope it doesn't. I hope they all die peacefully out at sea if they develop at all.