ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[ROCK]

GFDL run is jacked....hurricane status in 36 hrs really? it has never gotten an intensity forecast correct since its inception,IMO..

[Jevo]

12z GFS +144

[chaser1]

[/quote]it look gfs got chantal stronger in this run as pass islands of HISPANIOLA[/quote]

Umm, in addition to the 12Z GFS run, has anyone happened to notice the upper level low spinning just east of South Florida/Bahamas???? Aside from the fact that the convection has been on the increase, its also warming in the process. Possibly working its way down to the surface???? I am not seeing any evidence of surface rotation in any way, but perhaps even more interesting is that this upper low which was to more or less stall over or just east of South Florida, was also anticipated to work in tandem with the CONUS short wave in temporarily breaking down the mid level ridge and thus allow Chantal to move more NNW or Northward. Latest GFS is seemingly indicating that this upper/mid level low east of the Bahamas, might just be driven more westward. This would imply either a stronger ridge than earlier anticipated, or a more westward building ridge.

In the most general terms, this would not bode too well for Florida's east coast. While Hispanola, dry air, and upper level shear all may likely eventually rip apart Chantal..... changes in track or changes in upper level conditions farther out might spell a re-organizing system coming into the Central Florida East coast in 6 or 7 days.

Of far greater concern than what Chantal's impact might bring to the Bahamas or Florida, is that such a steering set up would indicate to me that we're going to see some semblance of additional tracks when more intense systems start developing. For the moment, "south of Hispanola" or "north of Hispanola" is of short term concerns. Of greater concern might be whether this year might truly be one with westward buidling 500mb ridging and more negatively tilted Mid-Gulf coast or westward retrograding CONUS shortwaves.

I am far more concerned with what Chantal "advertises" than what she'll actually "do". I would heed what Jeff Masters indicated (see Talking Tropics) regarding Chantal's development already a likely harbinger of Atlantic conditions and greater likelihood of above average activity. Now it will be that much more interesting to see if in fact her future motion might be indicative of the increased threat level to the U.S. coastline as many have already weighed in thus far this year.

[Jevo]

12z GFS +150



12z GFS +153 (deepening?)

[Blown Away]

12z GFS + 153


Landfall East Central Florida near Cape Canaveral...

[Evil Jeremy]

Lets get this thread rolling! Something I'm going to try with Chantal is to keep this post constantly updated with the latest information from a current recon mission. Have the important information on the current flight right up here in layman's terms. Info like highest winds found, lowest pressure, latest center fix per VDM (and other VDM info), and other info of the sort. Ill keep it updated to the best of my ability. Ill start putting the info in the post once recon approaches Chantal.

Remnants of Chantal Recon Mission Summary

Current Chantal Recon Mission(s):





Upcoming Recon Flights Into Chantal:


All previously scheduled upcoming missions into Chantal have been cancelled.


Previous Missions Into Chantal:
Flight One (Teal 70 Aircraft) complete. Mission started around 2:40pm Eastern on Monday July 8
http://img707.imageshack.us/img707/3584/hc9j.jpg

Flight Two (Teal 71) Took off around 7am Eastern, concluded around 2:00pm Eastern.

Mission Three (Teal 71) investigated TS Chantal from 7:00PM to 11:00PM Eastern on Tuesday July 9th. No west winds were found during the mission.
http://oi42.tinypic.com/rlvw2t.jpg

Mission 3.5, after Mission Three reported back to base the crew switched planes and departed again around 12:40am, but were not able to find west winds or an LLC (as of 2:00am Eastern).

[Jevo]

12z GFS +162 through C.FL emerging in the GOM

[Evil Jeremy]

No one posted tomorrow's flight plan. Flights taking off at 7:00am and 7:00pm Eastern:

Code: Select all

REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT MON 08 JULY 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 09/1100Z TO 10/1100Z JULY 2013
         TCPOD NUMBER.....13-038

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72      FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 70
       A. 10/0000Z,0600Z          A. 10/1200Z,1800Z
       B. AFXXX 0303A CHANTAL     B. AFXXX 0403A CHANTAL
       C. 09/2300Z                C. 10/1100Z
       D. 15.2N 64.1W             D. 16.8N 68.2W
       E. 09/2330Z TO 10/0600Z    E. 10/1130Z TO 10/1800Z
       F. SFC TO 10,00 FT         F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES WHILE
       SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

[Blown Away]

That will get this board fired up...

[jhpigott]

GFS looks like it wants to build back in the ridging and send Chantal back west into east central Florida.

[DESTRUCTION5]

12z GFS + 153


Landfall East Central Florida near Cape Canaveral...

153 isn't fantacy land anymore... stall in Bahamas looking more discernible at the very least.

[Stangfriik]

12z GFS + 153
http://img545.imageshack.us/img545/3695/k7f.jpg

Landfall East Central Florida near Cape Canaveral...

That would certainly be interesting since I'm up in new smyrna beach about 45 minutes north of the cape.

[jhpigott]

:uarrow: That will get this board fired up...

Yep, brought me out of my storm2k lurk mode

[Jevo]

12z GFS +171

[ROCK]

waiting on the EURO run in a few hours.....this doesnt smell right even in the med range. Crossing over FL into the GOM.

[sponger]

Ugly for us. I agree that this far out, down the middle is the best place to be. 72 hours out is when I start to worry.

[wxman57]

Plotting the 00Z Euro and GFS 500mb height contours I see that the GFS builds the ridge north of Chantal by 120hrs but the Euro does not. Though the Euro doesn't indicate Chantal in the surface pressure pattern, it does have a clear path to recurve east of Florida at 00Z.

Will be interesting to see if the 12Z Euro is any different. Clearly, the GFS builds the ridge ahead of Chantal, shoving it west into Florida.

[Jevo]

12z GFS +180 (I agree med range GFS is sketchy, but interested to see how this run plays out)

[ROCK]

probably going to ramp up over the LC to a Cat5 and destroy NO....typical..

[Jevo]

Plotting the 00Z Euro and GFS 500mb height contours I see that the GFS builds the ridge north of Chantal by 120hrs but the Euro does not. Though the Euro doesn't indicate Chantal in the surface pressure pattern, it does have a clear path to recurve east of Florida at 00Z.

Will be interesting to see if the 12Z Euro is any different. Clearly, the GFS builds the ridge ahead of Chantal, shoving it west into Florida.

Glad to see ya back for another year wxman57.