ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[SouthFLTropics]

Actually the 12Z GFS builds the ridge back in much faster possibly pushing Chantel across central Florida between Tampa and
FT. Myers at hr 152 and then into the Gulf

Wasn't JB saying a few weeks ago to watch for a system to impact Florida between Orlando and Miami in the mid July timeframe (I think he said Jul 12th).

At the time I thought he was crazy...the fact that it has some chance of actually happening now is unbelievable.

July is usually a very quite month for tropical threats for Florida when you look at climatology.

Especially coming from that direction. I would be more inclined to see something brew in the Bahamas and then approach as a weak system versus a long tracker from the Lesser Antilles. Or possibly something coming up from the South. If we take a shot from the east this early I hate to think what August and September are going to be like.

SFT

[Jevo]

(Here's something that I find peculiar about this 12Z 850mb run that you are displaying)

12z GFS MSLP & 10m Wind Speed full Loop

Thanks Jevo, but thats kinda my point? Surface maps see no more than a 1013 remnant low treking across Florida. The 850mb charts would seem to indicate a significantly more developed system (albiet not necessarily at the surface). Do you find this to be a better indicator of development, or do you find the GFS surface forecast maps that much less reliable of forecasted intensity. (Contrary to most circumstances, I will admit that the GFS did not forecast Chantal's development..., jeez, i'm not sure if I recall whether its crazy uncle CMC even forecasted Chantal LOL)

After reading your previous comments I decided it would be advantageous to post the MSLP run on the storm. I'm using the 850mb run more as a location marker as opposed to intensity, because as you mentioned SSP maps are not picking up the storm that well at this point.

[Rgv20]

Going to be interesting how strong recon finds her..

[Evil Jeremy]

gfs vs EURO who right Models let war begain

No need for model wars or debates. Lets keep the focus on the storm at hand and keep the petty "this model is better" stuff for the downtime between storms.

My brother, who is a PRO MET: "I haven't looked at the GFS in 2 years."

To each their own. The GFS is a good counterbalance to the ECMWF and other models. You can't have one without the other. Selectively choosing which models to follow doesn't make sense to me personally, as the more data to consider, the better.

[floridasun78]

so let wait untill ECMWF come out look gfs on drug

[chaser1]

My brother, who is a PRO MET: "I haven't looked at the GFS in 2 years."

Does your brother have a computer? - JUST KIDDING (just a little "model smack talk"

[Evil Jeremy]

so let wait untill ECMWF come out look gfs on drug

...... The GFS is not on drugs. I don't feel the need to elaborate on that more.

[Evil Jeremy]

Actually the 12Z GFS builds the ridge back in much faster possibly pushing Chantel across central Florida between Tampa and
FT. Myers at hr 152 and then into the Gulf

Wasn't JB saying a few weeks ago to watch for a system to impact Florida between Orlando and Miami in the mid July timeframe (I think he said Jul 12th)..

Hey, if you keep throwing darts at a dart board, eventually one will hit the target lol.

[SouthDadeFish]

Looking better on satellite imagery with those banding features. Also, in the last few frames it seems like a tight band leading toward the core from the SW is trying to wrap up. With recon flying in today, I'm most curious to see how tight the circulation is, if it is tight at all.

[Bocadude85]

Actually the 12Z GFS builds the ridge back in much faster possibly pushing Chantel across central Florida between Tampa and
FT. Myers at hr 152 and then into the Gulf

Wasn't JB saying a few weeks ago to watch for a system to impact Florida between Orlando and Miami in the mid July timeframe (I think he said Jul 12th).

At the time I thought he was crazy...the fact that it has some chance of actually happening now is unbelievable.

July is usually a very quite month for tropical threats for Florida when you look at climatology.

Especially coming from that direction. I would be more inclined to see something brew in the Bahamas and then approach as a weak system versus a long tracker from the Lesser Antilles. Or possibly something coming up from the South. If we take a shot from the east this early I hate to think what August and September are going to be like.

SFT

What's interesting is that years that South or Central Florida have been effected by a tropical system in July featured a major hurricane landfall in South Florida during September. 1926 is one of those years

[chaser1]

[/quote]No need for model wars or debates. Lets keep the focus on the storm at hand and keep the petty "this model is better" stuff for the downtime between storms.[/quote]

No, No of course. I agree and furthermore have found that just like a sports team, model accuracy seems to almost run in streaks. Some years, I find one model to just have that much more of an edge of accuracy than others. As previously stated, the basic point of forecasting (and better anticipation) is to hopefully start seeing an overall convergence of models.

[lester]

the 00z version of the Euro didn't even initialize right, hopefully the 12z will do better.

[wxman57]

My brother, who is a PRO MET: "I haven't looked at the GFS in 2 years."

That's nothing I'd brag about. The GFS does an excellent job at times while the Euro doesn't. Currently, the 00Z Euro didn't even initialize Chantal well. Euro did well with Sandy last year but totally sucked with Debby (which the GFS nailed).

[Dave]

Please no model wars now or anytime.

[northjaxpro]

gfs vs EURO who right Models let war begain

No need for model wars or debates. Lets keep the focus on the storm at hand and keep the petty "this model is better" stuff for the downtime between storms.

I totally agree with you on this. Please keep the model war discussion for another time folks.

[Tireman4]

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[Rgv20]

12zUKMET still has Chantal moving North very slowly by days 5 and 6...We will see if in later runs the UKMET is going to forecast a west turn..

Day 5



Day 6

[Gustywind]

Martinica has issued an orange alert due to Chantal arrival during the next 24H...
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ameter=new Date().getTime()

[ROCK]

My brother, who is a PRO MET: "I haven't looked at the GFS in 2 years."

That's nothing I'd brag about. The GFS does an excellent job at times while the Euro doesn't. Currently, the 00Z Euro didn't even initialize Chantal well. Euro did well with Sandy last year but totally sucked with Debby (which the GFS nailed).

not sure I would say nailed it....the GFS just found a nut....

[AtlanticWind]

CMC

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation