ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[caneseddy]

Actually the 12Z GFS builds the ridge back in much faster possibly pushing Chantel across central Florida between Tampa and
FT. Myers at hr 152 and then into the Gulf

Wasn't JB saying a few weeks ago to watch for a system to impact Florida between Orlando and Miami in the mid July timeframe (I think he said Jul 12th).

At the time I thought he was crazy...the fact that it has some chance of actually happening now is unbelievable.

July is usually a very quite month for tropical threats for Florida when you look at climatology.

You are correct sir; he was actually referencing the Brazilian model (which until then I did not know even existed) which had a tropical cyclone hitting Florida on July 12th.

[chaser1]

Actually the 12Z GFS builds the ridge back in much faster possibly pushing Chantel across central Florida between Tampa and FT. Myers at hr 152 and then into the Gulf

Keep in mind, the 12Z GFS forecast for Chantal presently shows nothing more than a 1013mb low crossing the state. In the "Chantal Model Discussion", it was noted how well it does show up at 850mb at that time, but still hardly reflecting much at the surface

[/quote]What's interesting is that years that South or Central Florida have been effected by a tropical system in July featured a major hurricane landfall in South Florida during September. 1926 is one of those years[/quote]

I agree that such a motion that might bring Chantal to the Florida coastline, might be eerily indicative of future tracks this season. However, regarding the above statement...., has South Florida really been directly hit by a later season hurricane in each year that Florida received a Tropical Storm (or stronger) landfall in July?? I had not taken the time to research that, but if so....just further indicates the relevance of steering pattern trends for the season.

[petit_bois]

if these models keep trending west... we could have another
dangerous GOM'er on our hands.

[Nimbus]

There is an ULL in the Bahamas at the moment so upper air steering depends how fast that lifts out and gets replaced by the persistent west Atlantic ridging.
Chantal seems to be trucking along to the WNW at a steady clip should pass 55 W about 12.5 N.
Small storm ATM hopefully stays that way, still not much shear in its immediate path.

[Blown Away]

Now that the respected GFS (12z) skims the N coast of DR and keeps Chantal intact before moving across the FL Peninsula, I'm thinking the official track may continue to move right towards the N coast of DR and will they adjust their day 5 intensity from TD to TS or Hurricane??

[SapphireSea]

It looks like the LLC is racing away from the convection. Somehow I get a 2004 Earl vibe coming from this. Have to see if it can keep convection close.

[Gustywind]

Martinica under an orange vigilance "cyclone".


MARTINIQUE IN VIGILANCE ORANGE: "PREPARE YOU!»

July 8, 2013 | 13 H00

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... dr0n0iELIU


At midday Monday, July 8, the center of the storm tropical Chantal was located 1200 km in Southeast of Martinique. This storm moves 40 km West-North-West. The end of the night and this morning showers have brought between 5 and 35 mm in 6 hours. and the veiled sky will be eclairir without showers. The Sun should make beautiful appearances Monday afternoon. The lull will continue for this evening of Monday but it is end of the night the sky will cover themselves with the first showers sustained and stormy.


Chantal should pass through the South of Martinique this 9 July with heavy rains and thunderstorms in the morning and until the end of the afternoon. Strong accumulations are expected. Note that only during a hurricane, the orange alert States that there is a potential hazard with impact awaited to even a little maturity and therefore with even a slight inaccuracy, or a very probable danger close due but with limited (impact moderate) expected effects on the territory. Therefore, keep abreast of the evolution of the weather situation with weather-France, media, news of the prefecture, continuous etc. In the case of dangerous sea, do not take the Sea (under any circumstances), avoid the proximity of beaches where breaking rollers; protect its nautical vessels. In the event of risk of heavy rains: avoid to undertake excursions in the mountains or near the watercourse, and areas usually at risk from the onset of bad weather and stay tuned on RCI Martinique.

[meriland23]

Really weird. GFS animation indicates it will cross central FL, regain a bit of strength, and then hit LA? what a goofy model run...

[chaser1]

[/quote]Wasn't JB saying a few weeks ago to watch for a system to impact Florida between Orlando and Miami in the mid July timeframe (I think he said Jul 12th).

At the time I thought he was crazy...the fact that it has some chance of actually happening now is unbelievable.

July is usually a very quite month for tropical threats for Florida when you look at climatology.[/quote]

You are correct sir; he was actually referencing the Brazilian model (which until then I did not know even existed) which had a tropical cyclone hitting Florida on July 12th.[/quote]

"that's insane". What are the odds? Hey, if South or Central Florida even has Chantal come across as a depression, he gets points for that in my book! Brazilian model, huh? Alright...., anyone out there have any "intel" on any other Peruvian, Baltic States, or Ghana forecast tools?

[Dave]

Thanks Jeremy!

[caneseddy]

Actually the 12Z GFS builds the ridge back in much faster possibly pushing Chantel across central Florida between Tampa and FT. Myers at hr 152 and then into the Gulf

Keep in mind, the 12Z GFS forecast for Chantal presently shows nothing more than a 1013mb low crossing the state. In the "Chantal Model Discussion", it was noted how well it does show up at 850mb at that time, but still hardly reflecting much at the surface

What's interesting is that years that South or Central Florida have been effected by a tropical system in July featured a major hurricane landfall in South Florida during September. 1926 is one of those years[/quote]

I agree that such a motion that might bring Chantal to the Florida coastline, might be eerily indicative of future tracks this season. However, regarding the above statement...., has South Florida really been directly hit by a later season hurricane in each year that Florida received a Tropical Storm (or stronger) landfall in July?? I had not taken the time to research that, but if so....just further indicates the relevance of steering pattern trends for the season. [/quote]

1960 is another year like that. TS Brenda hit Cross City which is by the Big Bend on July 28; Hurricane Donna, which was a Cat4 impacted South Florida/Keys on September 10

[ColdFusion]

Really weird. GFS animation indicates it will cross central FL, regain a bit of strength, and then hit LA? what a goofy model run...

Not too goofy. If the ridge builds back to the west, its a very possible scenario.

[SFLcane]

12z canadian through cuba then drives a moderate TS up the florida eastcoast. Just one problem " cuban mountains"

[JonathanBelles]

My tropical weather briefing for the Atlantic Basin.

http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/

For those of you in the lesser antilles, I will try to get an impact map up tonight. I'll be in transit across the state later today, so there is no guarantee.

[torrea40]

Loking GOOD right now Chantel

[ROCK]

There is an ULL in the Bahamas at the moment so upper air steering depends how fast that lifts out and gets replaced by the persistent west Atlantic ridging.
Chantal seems to be trucking along to the WNW at a steady clip should pass 50 W about 12.5 N.
Small storm ATM hopefully stays that way, still not much shear in its immediate path.

shes already passed 52W and currently at 11.8N or so.....

[ROCK]

boy, if the EURO comes out with an IKE-like odd ball run I am going to be all over it...

[meriland23]

interesting map.. good chunk of ensemble models miss cuba entirely..


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[CrazyC83]

Could Chantal be a serious storm if it misses the islands to the south, i.e. intensify into a strong hurricane?

[CrazyC83]

interesting map..
http://img163.imageshack.us/img163/2844/fjj.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

If Hispaniola was not there, that would be a potential worst case scenario for the corridor from Savannah to Jacksonville...that trough will certainly be the key to all this.