ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[torrea40]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-rgb.html

Looking much better now. Maybe is as Hurricane Cat 1.

[adam0983]

I am looking forward to the new Euro Model run at 2pm If it follows the GFS it is going to be an interesting week here in Florida. Just an opinion not a forecast.

[Jevo]

12z Euro is running

[tolakram]

live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[Evil Jeremy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-rgb.html

Looking much better now. Maybe is as Hurricane Cat 1.

Nope. Its far from a hurricane.

[Dean4Storms]

Wasn't JB saying a few weeks ago to watch for a system to impact Florida between Orlando and Miami in the mid July timeframe (I think he said Jul 12th).

At the time I thought he was crazy...the fact that it has some chance of actually happening now is unbelievable.

July is usually a very quite month for tropical threats for Florida when you look at climatology.

You are correct sir; he was actually referencing the Brazilian model (which until then I did not know even existed) which had a tropical cyclone hitting Florida on July 12th.[/quote]

"that's insane". What are the odds? Hey, if South or Central Florida even has Chantal come across as a depression, he gets points for that in my book! Brazilian model, huh? Alright...., anyone out there have any "intel" on any other Peruvian, Baltic States, or Ghana forecast tools? [/quote]

I thought the GFS was the Ghana Forecast system. Ghana knows how to build at atmospheric forecast model![/quote]

Yes he JB did and I was the original poster on his comment about it being interesting that within the MJO phase that the Brazilian Model Meteogram indicated a Tropical Cyclone passing between Miami and Orlando on the 12th.

[adam0983]

I say it is mid level tropical storm now with winds around 45 to 55 mph. Just an opinion not a forecast.

[SFLcane]

I think Stacy has taken over the NHC.

[Aric Dunn]

The track is very similar to Debby back in 2000. though it will be coming in at more of a se angle than debbie. the angle of approach over DR would very likely kill chantal.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Debby_%282000%29

[chaser1]

will be interesting to see if recon closes off a center. This is moving so fast that it may not be closed on the south side

Sounds like you're operating under the assumption that the storm isn't closed off at the moment. Is that right?

You know, if recon finds a weaker system, this too might throw a "fly into the ointment" with regard to future motion. Wouldn't a more surface reflective system tend to move more westward and perhaps graze the Southern coast of Hispanola (or even remain south of the island? Naturally a more developed system would feel a greater pull by a mid level weakness

[JTE50]

No one can predict intensity you can only predict the track of storms. Hurricane Charley went from a category 2 to a category 4 in 2 hours. I remember Hurricane Katrina went from a tropical storm to category 5 in 1 day. Anything is possible with storms. Just an opinion not a forecast.

TS to Category 5 in 1 day? No. Here's the entire life cycle graphics from NHC http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/KATRINA_graphics.shtml

[CrazyC83]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Here is my guess for the Chantal threat level, up to Wednesday night:



Orange - Significant impact. Significant flash flood threat exists in these islands with widespread flash flooding and mudslides possible, especially in deforested areas. Scattered tropical storm force sustained winds likely with sustained winds 30 to 50 mph with gusts 50 to 65 mph (perhaps 75 mph or higher in the most vulnerable areas of Hispaniola, such as higher elevations).

Yellow - Modest impact. Main threat is from flash flooding, especially if outer bands set up across the islands. Scattered flash flooding and mudslides possible. Isolated to scattered minor wind damage possible (i.e. power outages and some trees/branches down) - sustained winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts 30 to 45 mph (perhaps up to 60 mph in the most vulnerable locations).

[AtlanticWind]

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFDL/20 ... .anim.html

GFDL

[SFLcane]

I'd be surprised if recon found a 50 mph storm, as the center remains exposed to the NW of the convection. Strongest squalls are located on the south and southeast side. With the storm moving westward at over 20 mph I wouldn't expect 50 mph west winds down there. Conditions really don't look too favorable for strengthening until the storm passes west of the DR, which is why I'm doubtful it will be weakening as it moves into the Bahamas.

So your implying there a chance there might be a stronger storm once it makes into the bahamas? Just dont see were this has a chance to really do anything If its not sinking air its the forward motion shear and even land interaction DR

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
200 PM AST MON JUL 08 2013

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ABOUT TO HEAD TOWARD CHANTAL...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 52.8W
ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* DOMINICA
* SAINT LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE
* GUADELOUPE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAINT VINCENT
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE IN THE WATCH AREA...USUALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND EASTERN
CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHANTAL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA WITHIN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.8 WEST. CHANTAL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/H...AND A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF CHANTAL SHOULD REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY TUESDAY...AND MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATER ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE LESSER ANTILLES WATCH AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY...AND ACROSS PUERTO
RICO BY WEDNESDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Aric Dunn]

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFDL/2013070812-chantal03l/slp.anim.html

GFDL

interesting makes it a hurricane tomorrow... lol dont see it happening

[torrea40]

live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5


http://imageshack.us/a/img89/9797/81zd.jpg

Looking much better now......Strong Storm right now..

[Kalrany]

boy, if the EURO comes out with an IKE-like odd ball run I am going to be all over it...

Ouch. Just thought hurts.

[SFLcane]

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFDL/2013070812-chantal03l/slp.anim.html

GFDL

interesting makes it a hurricane tomorrow... lol dont see it happening

And notice the stall and strengthing in the bahamas

[Aric Dunn]

hwrf loses in into SA lol

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation