SFLcane wrote:wxman57 wrote:I'd be surprised if recon found a 50 mph storm, as the center remains exposed to the NW of the convection. Strongest squalls are located on the south and southeast side. With the storm moving westward at over 20 mph I wouldn't expect 50 mph west winds down there. Conditions really don't look too favorable for strengthening until the storm passes west of the DR, which is why I'm doubtful it will be weakening as it moves into the Bahamas.
So your implying there a chance there might be a stronger storm once it makes into the bahamas? Just dont see were this has a chance to really do anything If its not sinking air its the forward motion shear and even land interaction DR
I think that once it slows down, gets away from the dry air and moves past the suppressive phase of a convectively-coupled Kelvin wave (west of 65W) it will reach an environment (Bahamas) that may be more hospitable toward intensification. This is particularly true if the GFS is correct in building the ridge to its north.
And, no, I don't think it looks much better now. Center is still exposed NW of the convection. Recon should take off shortly.