ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

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#901 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon Jul 08, 2013 1:20 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:THey not in the air yet ?


They should have just taken off about 5 minutes ago
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Models

#902 Postby ROCK » Mon Jul 08, 2013 1:20 pm

Alyono wrote:
ROCK wrote:the HWRF has got some feedback issues...lol


huh? Convective feedback CANNOT occur in the core of a HWRF TC any longer. It has EXPLICIT convection

The term convective feedback has been thrown around far too often here


I was kidding....however the point was the model run is junk...personally I think the HWRF is a BIG FAIL. It was supposed to take over the GFDL years ago....
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adam0983

Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Models

#903 Postby adam0983 » Mon Jul 08, 2013 1:23 pm

The model has still been good in other seasons no model is junk they all specialize in something? Just an opinion not a forecast.
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#904 Postby Dave » Mon Jul 08, 2013 1:23 pm

Waiting for takeoff...
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Re: Re:

#905 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 08, 2013 1:25 pm

JonathanBelles wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:THey not in the air yet ?


They should have just taken off about 5 minutes ago


not seeing it on any of the sites...
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#906 Postby Weatherboy1 » Mon Jul 08, 2013 1:26 pm

I think we will have to see if other models "bite" on the ridge rebuilding theme besides the GFS. Certainly any system that gets into the Bahamas and runs out of forward motion steam has the potential to intensify. Or we could get a Frances/Jeanne (2004) scenario where the system eventually gets shunted to the west by a rebuilding ridge rather than just steamrolling north after making the first turn. To me, Chantal doesn't look any stronger now than 12-18 hours ago, but she also doesn't look like a system that's destined to fall apart either.
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Models

#907 Postby Stormlover2012 » Mon Jul 08, 2013 1:27 pm

Oh it's junk!!!! The model is horrible!!
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#908 Postby SFLcane » Mon Jul 08, 2013 1:27 pm

Gatorcane the GFDL does just that slowly intensifies it stalled in the bahamas with ridge on top. Plenty of if's to many for me actually
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#909 Postby Alyono » Mon Jul 08, 2013 1:28 pm

Chantal really is looking sick this afternoon. Convection is waning and the circ is poorly defined at best
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Re:

#910 Postby Riptide » Mon Jul 08, 2013 1:29 pm

Alyono wrote:Chantal really is looking sick this afternoon. Convection is waning and the circ is poorly defined at best

This is the model discussion topic, use the storm thread for observations about the storm.
Last edited by Riptide on Mon Jul 08, 2013 1:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#911 Postby Jevo » Mon Jul 08, 2013 1:29 pm

I believe.. this is the 12z Euro initialized..

Image
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Models

#912 Postby SFLcane » Mon Jul 08, 2013 1:29 pm

Stormlover2012 wrote:Oh it's junk!!!! The model is horrible!!


I know.. :cry:
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#913 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jul 08, 2013 1:29 pm

SFLcane wrote:Gatorcane the GFDL does just that slowly intensifies it stalled in the bahamas with ridge on top. Plenty of if's to many for me actually


Not liking the GFDL run at all as it slows in the Bahamas drifting north for a day or so then bends west looking to make a bullseye at the Florida east coast with some time over very warm water where it could intensify quickly with the right upper-level conditions.

Alot of "ifs" for sure and too early to say what will happen. Best if all in Florida and the SE U.S. have their hurricane supplies ready as WxMan57 did say last night in a post just in case Chantal can get stronger than currently forecasted.
Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Jul 08, 2013 1:31 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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torrea40

Re:

#914 Postby torrea40 » Mon Jul 08, 2013 1:30 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:low level cloud deck on the north side beginning to thicken may see convection finally build on the northern half.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html


Chantal looks better already it's rolling more and strengthening, the dimax or diurnimax will be on explosion tonight ... :grrr: :grrr: :grrr: :grrr: :grrr: :grrr: :grrr: :grrr: :grrr: :grrr: :grrr: :grrr: :grrr: :grrr: :grrr: :grrr: :grrr: :grrr: :grrr:
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#915 Postby Dave » Mon Jul 08, 2013 1:30 pm

AF 302 on the runway...

000
URNT15 KNHC 081826
AF302 0103A CHANTAL HDOB 01 20130708
181800 1742N 06448W 0168 ///// //// //// //// 360000 000 /// /// 25
181830 1742N 06448W 0167 ///// //// //// //// 360000 000 /// /// 25
181900 1742N 06448W 0168 ///// //// //// //// 360000 000 /// /// 25
181930 1742N 06448W 0168 ///// //// //// //// 360000 000 /// /// 25
182000 1742N 06448W 0167 ///// //// //// //// 360000 000 /// /// 25
182030 1742N 06448W 0167 ///// //// //// -46544 360000 000 /// /// 25
182100 1742N 06448W 0167 ///// //// //// +222 360000 000 /// /// 25
182130 1742N 06448W 0167 ///// //// //// +222 360000 000 /// /// 25
182200 1742N 06448W 0167 ///// //// //// +222 360000 000 /// /// 25
182230 1742N 06448W 0167 ///// //// //// +222 360000 000 /// /// 25
182300 1742N 06448W 0167 ///// //// //// +222 360000 000 /// /// 25
182330 1742N 06448W 0167 ///// //// //// +222 360000 000 /// /// 25
182400 1742N 06448W 0168 ///// //// //// +222 360000 000 /// /// 25
182430 1742N 06448W 0167 ///// //// //// +222 360000 000 /// /// 25
182500 1742N 06448W 0167 ///// //// //// +222 360000 000 /// /// 25
182530 1742N 06448W 0168 ///// //// //// +222 360000 000 /// /// 25
182600 1742N 06448W 0167 ///// //// //// +222 360000 000 /// /// 25
182630 1742N 06448W 0168 ///// //// //// +222 360000 000 /// /// 25
182700 1742N 06448W 0167 ///// //// //// +222 360000 000 /// /// 25
182730 1742N 06448W 0167 ///// //// //// +222 360000 000 /// /// 25
$$
;
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RE: ATL: CHANTAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#916 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Mon Jul 08, 2013 1:31 pm

Tropical Storm Chantal

Image
Last edited by Hurricane_Luis on Mon Jul 08, 2013 1:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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torrea40

Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#917 Postby torrea40 » Mon Jul 08, 2013 1:31 pm

Chantal looks better already it's rolling more and strengthening, the dimax or diurnimax will be on explosion tonight ... :ggreen: :ggreen: :ggreen: :ggreen:
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#918 Postby Alyono » Mon Jul 08, 2013 1:32 pm

torrea40 wrote:


Looking much better now......Strong Storm right now.. :grrr:


it actually looks quite sick. Waning convection and a poorly defined or non existent circ
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#919 Postby Riptide » Mon Jul 08, 2013 1:32 pm

Alyono wrote:
torrea40 wrote:


Looking much better now......Strong Storm right now.. :grrr:


it actually looks quite sick. Waning convection and a poorly defined or non existent circ

Wait for Recon to confirm.
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#920 Postby Dave » Mon Jul 08, 2013 1:32 pm

Recon Discussion Thread Here...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=115204&p=2316961#p2316961

Keep this thread for data & images only...Thank you!
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