ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[torrea40]

live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5


http://imageshack.us/a/img89/9797/81zd.jpg

Looking much better now......Strong Storm right now..

it actually looks quite sick. Waning convection and a poorly defined or non existent circ

Really.?? See this image actually ...
http://img845.imageshack.us/img845/1174/8q7.png

[wxman57]

Agree, not as impressive looking as it was 6 hrs ago. Surface center is now exposed to the NW of the convection. Recon just departed St. Croix. Should be there in a few hours.

[SouthDadeFish]

T Numbers went down:

08/1745 UTC 11.6N 52.5W T2.0/2.5 CHANTAL -- Atlantic

[Hurricane_Luis]

it actually looks quite sick. Waning convection and a poorly defined or non existent circ

Really are you looking at the satellite images everyone else is looking at!

[wxman57]

it actually looks quite sick. Waning convection and a poorly defined or non existent circ

Really are you looking at the satellite images everyone else is looking at!

Same ones we're all looking at. Don't make the assumption that the center is beneath that convection. It isn't.

[Blown Away]

08/1745 UTC 11.6N 52.5W T2.0/2.5 CHANTAL -- Atlantic

Chantal going right of the forecast points...Not by much, but every couple of miles may matter when she arrives to DR...

[torrea40]

Agree, not as impressive looking as it was 6 hrs ago. Surface center is now exposed to the NW of the convection. Recon just departed St. Croix. Should be there in a few hours.

But what happen on Bulletin at 11:00am today ..Loking sick but NHC put the trigger......NHC..

[Aric Dunn]

EURO in bahamas open wave.. moving slowly at 96 hours

then dead at 120

[Riptide]

it actually looks quite sick. Waning convection and a poorly defined or non existent circ

Really are you looking at the satellite images everyone else is looking at!

No worries, it is the diurnal minimum after all. It is normal for small TC's to fluctuate in intensity like this. Convection usually explodes again during the night due to changes in temperature gradients.

[Aric Dunn]

it actually looks quite sick. Waning convection and a poorly defined or non existent circ

Really are you looking at the satellite images everyone else is looking at!

No worries, it is the diurnal minimum after all. It is normal for small TC's to fluctuate in intensity like this. Convection usually explodes again during the night due to changes in temperature gradients.

though the low level cloud deck is thickening could see convection begin to build to north of the center.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 081836
AF302 0103A CHANTAL HDOB 02 20130708
182800 1742N 06448W 0166 ///// //// //// +222 360000 000 /// /// 25
182830 1742N 06448W 0167 ///// //// //// +222 360000 000 /// /// 25
182900 1742N 06448W 0166 ///// //// //// +221 360000 000 /// /// 25
182930 1742N 06448W 0165 ///// 0155 +383 +221 360000 000 /// /// 23
183000 1742N 06448W 0166 ///// 0155 +388 +221 360000 000 /// /// 23
183030 1742N 06448W 0165 ///// 0154 +392 +223 360000 000 /// /// 23
183100 1742N 06448W 0165 ///// 0154 +384 +225 360000 000 /// /// 23
183130 1742N 06448W 0164 ///// 0154 +380 +225 360000 000 /// /// 23
183200 1742N 06448W 0166 ///// 0154 +372 +225 360000 000 /// /// 23
183230 1742N 06448W 0166 ///// 0155 +362 +227 360000 000 /// /// 23
183300 1742N 06448W 0166 ///// 0155 +377 +227 360000 000 /// /// 23
183330 1742N 06448W 0164 ///// 0154 +381 +228 360000 000 /// /// 23
183400 1742N 06448W 0164 ///// 0153 +397 +229 360000 000 /// /// 23
183430 1742N 06448W 0162 ///// 0154 +392 +228 360000 000 /// /// 23
183500 1742N 06448W 0168 ///// 0156 +375 +231 360000 000 /// /// 23
183530 1742N 06448W 0168 ///// 0156 +372 +230 360000 000 /// /// 23
183600 1742N 06448W 0164 ///// 0154 +358 +231 360000 000 /// /// 23
183630 1742N 06448W 0164 ///// 0153 +346 +232 360000 000 /// /// 23
183700 1742N 06448W 0164 ///// 0154 +342 +231 360000 000 /// /// 23
183730 1742N 06448W 0164 ///// 0153 +357 +230 360000 000 /// /// 23
$$
;

[wxman57]

LLC appears to be NW of the convection somewhere in the yellow circle I drew:

[Evil Jeremy]

Agree, not as impressive looking as it was 6 hrs ago. Surface center is now exposed to the NW of the convection. Recon just departed St. Croix. Should be there in a few hours.

But what happen on Bulletin at 11:00am today ..Loking sick but NHC put the trigger......NHC..

...... I have no idea what this means, but I can guess.

The 11am advisory was nearly 4 hours ago, and the system has clearly deteriorated since then. I don't think it's bad to the extent that Alyono thinks, but it's not a pretty as it was this morning.

[Aric Dunn]

Latest image came in some popcorn convection starting to build on the otherwise dry side.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[floridasun78]

so EURO right?

[tolakram]

Hey Folks,

let's keep this thread about model runs for Chantal and directly related conversation. Let's avoid personal feelings about certain models or quick retorts that don't add to the discussion. Thanks!

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

After struggling a bit this morning, Chantal is becoming better organized, and just in time for the first recon flight into the storm. Convective banding is developing in the eastern semicircle, and convection is forming over and just south of the low-level circulation. I wouldn't be surprised if recon found a 50 mph system.

Just a heads up, ASCAT and satellite imagery have made it obvious Chantal has a very small circulation center. If the recon doesn't wind west winds at first, don't freak out, they should be there, just within a very small area.

[Jevo]

EURO in bahamas open wave.. moving slowly at 96 hours

then dead at 120

It wouldnt be a season w/o the GFS and Euro having polar opposite runs

I'm watching the Plymouth site for the graphical, but I'm going to end up subbing to Awx.

[Blown Away]

18z...

TVCN consensus continues to shift right, currently down the spine...But a few more right shifts Chantal is off the coast??

[lester]

You know it's hurricane season when Chantal is either very sick or getting organized according to the forums lol