ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[Hurricane_Luis]

it actually looks quite sick. Waning convection and a poorly defined or non existent circ

Really are you looking at the satellite images everyone else is looking at!

Same ones we're all looking at. Don't make the assumption that the center is beneath that convection. It isn't.

I'm not, all I was saying was that I dont agree with him, thats all.

[NDG]

I agree with wxman57's location of the LLC
This is my estimated location, fairly close to his.

[torrea40]

You know it's hurricane season when Chantal is either very sick or getting organized according to the forums lol

Yeahhhhh you are very very right.....Yessssssssssssss

[AtlanticWind]

http://img706.imageshack.us/img706/5283/yha6.jpg
18z...

TVCN consensus continues to shift right, currently down the spine...But a few more right shifts Chantal is off the coast??

If it followed the BamM it would have just a little interaction wit the DR

[Evil Jeremy]

I wouldn't say that Chantal is falling apart. More like experiencing growing pains:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[Aric Dunn]

long flight out there....

[galaxy401]

I can tell the center is exposed. Other than the exposed center it doesn't look all that bad.

[Aric Dunn]

[img]http://img706.imageshack.us/img706/5283/yha6.jpg[/ig]
18z...

TVCN consensus continues to shift right, currently down the spine...But a few more right shifts Chantal is off the coast??

Yeah the gfs and members all shifted north early then the turn to the west.

[Blown Away]

Wow, some people have very high expectations of what a 45 mph Tropical Storm should look like...Not to bad considering what we are dealing with and we've seen alot worse systems classified as TS!!

[Dave]

AF 302 Enroute to TS Chantal...

000
URNT15 KNHC 081846
AF302 0103A CHANTAL HDOB 03 20130708
183800 1742N 06448W 0162 ///// 0151 +364 +228 360000 000 /// /// 23
183830 1742N 06448W 0159 ///// 0148 +361 +230 360000 000 /// /// 23
183900 1742N 06448W 0157 ///// 0145 +328 +229 360000 000 /// /// 23
183930 1742N 06449W 0152 ///// 0141 +308 +228 360000 000 /// /// 23
184000 1742N 06449W 0149 ///// 0134 +305 +230 360000 000 /// /// 23
184030 1742N 06449W 0147 ///// 0137 +315 +229 360000 000 /// /// 23
184100 1742N 06449W 0141 ///// 0133 +292 +224 093011 021 /// /// 23
184130 1742N 06448W 0058 00053 0138 +270 +218 090022 025 /// /// 03
184200 1742N 06447W 9898 00225 0159 +249 +214 095020 022 /// /// 03
184230 1742N 06445W 9561 00513 0153 +222 +205 095021 022 /// /// 03
184300 1742N 06444W 9171 00905 0174 +201 +163 099022 023 /// /// 03
184330 1742N 06442W 8870 01187 0176 +185 +159 110018 020 /// /// 03
184400 1742N 06441W 8579 01479 0169 +176 +139 110014 016 /// /// 03
184430 1742N 06439W 8259 01808 0166 +170 +099 112016 017 /// /// 03
184500 1742N 06437W 7975 02110 0165 +161 +065 103016 017 /// /// 03
184530 1742N 06436W 7745 02353 0165 +143 +045 102016 016 /// /// 03
184600 1742N 06434W 7516 02610 0167 +129 -013 102018 020 /// /// 03
184630 1742N 06432W 7271 02892 0166 +120 -138 108025 026 /// /// 03
184700 1741N 06431W 7045 03155 0166 +105 -194 104025 027 /// /// 03
184730 1740N 06429W 6793 03469 0179 +084 -127 100028 029 /// /// 03
$$
;

[torrea40]

Against steep odds due to an unfavorably fast trade wind flow, Chantal appears to be strengthening as per the official forecast the NHC.
It's strength right now....

[tolakram]

Live visible loop through most of the day. Looks normal for a storm moving as fast as it is, IMO It will look better for the next few hours, then the LLC will race ahead and convection will fall apart, only to rebuild hours later.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

[hurricanefloyd5]

Latest image came in some popcorn convection starting to build on the otherwise dry side.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Aric what are the chances that this thing could actually grow into a full-fledged hurricane and shoot West and Central Florida

[hurricanekid416]

I think it will peak just before landfall with 50mph then it will outrun itself

[Rgv20]

12zGFS Ensemble Members

[Aric Dunn]

Latest image came in some popcorn convection starting to build on the otherwise dry side.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Aric what are the chances that this thing could actually grow into a full-fledged hurricane and shoot West and Central Florida

too far out to tell but conditions maybe conducive for strengthening .. though it has to survive the islands first

[SFLcane]

http://img706.imageshack.us/img706/5283/yha6.jpg
18z...

TVCN consensus continues to shift right, currently down the spine...But a few more right shifts Chantal is off the coast??

Less interaction with DR

[NDG]

May I add that I think considering the circumstances of dry air around her and her very fast track she looks better than what I would had thought a system would look like.

[floridasun78]

i hope she dont have surprise for nhc

[tolakram]

While this image doesn't tell the entire WV story I think it's impressive how Chantal has moistened the environment around it.