ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[SapphireSea]

At this time all the models are suggesting that Tropical Storm Chantal move back towards Florida as a strong Bermuda High builds back in which will allow Tropical Storm Chantal to move back towards the west. Does anyone see a break down of the ridge in 120 hours which allow Tropical Storm Chantal to turn out to sea and not towards Florida. Just an opinion not a forecast.

IF and when the ridge builds back in, Chantal will accelerate and strike the peninsula before anything could materialize, the chances of that happening are low. It is more possible that the ridge does not build in at all and Chantal can follow a trough out to sea, this however has little to no model support.

Intensity, and speed will be key down the line to where exactly it ends up going.

[Aric Dunn]

They should have based in barbados. taking forever...

[Evil Jeremy]

[Evil Jeremy]

They should have based in barbados. taking forever...

We are probably 45 minutes to an hour away from getting useful observations.

[Dave]

They should have based in barbados. taking forever...

20 to 30 mins out from Guadelope..east of it..

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 082006
AF302 0103A CHANTAL HDOB 11 20130708
195800 1509N 05918W 3761 08057 0441 -210 -528 086023 023 018 000 00
195830 1507N 05916W 3759 08059 0440 -210 -527 084022 022 018 000 00
195900 1506N 05913W 3762 08055 0439 -209 -528 085022 022 018 000 00
195930 1505N 05911W 3761 08057 0437 -205 -528 083022 022 016 000 00
200000 1503N 05909W 3759 08060 0437 -205 -529 080022 022 017 000 00
200030 1502N 05907W 3761 08052 0438 -205 -521 080022 022 016 000 00
200100 1501N 05905W 3761 08057 0438 -205 -500 081022 022 016 000 00
200130 1459N 05903W 3761 08054 0438 -205 -491 086023 023 017 000 00
200200 1458N 05900W 3761 08055 0438 -204 -485 085023 023 021 000 00
200230 1456N 05858W 3758 08059 0439 -202 -495 082023 024 028 003 03
200300 1455N 05856W 3761 08054 0439 -197 -511 080024 025 /// /// 03
200330 1454N 05854W 3762 08055 0438 -199 -525 081024 025 /// /// 03
200400 1452N 05852W 3761 08059 0439 -205 -520 085024 024 /// /// 03
200430 1451N 05850W 3761 08056 0438 -205 -495 086023 024 /// /// 03
200500 1450N 05847W 3759 08057 0438 -205 -481 086024 024 /// /// 03
200530 1448N 05845W 3761 08055 0439 -205 -453 085023 024 016 000 00
200600 1447N 05843W 3761 08055 0439 -205 -369 091021 022 016 000 00
200630 1445N 05841W 3761 08051 0437 -205 -422 090023 023 016 000 00
200700 1444N 05839W 3761 08052 0436 -202 -482 091022 023 013 000 00
200730 1443N 05837W 3760 08055 0437 -200 -494 094023 024 013 000 00
$$
;

[robbielyn]

can someone do a vis sat pic with circle around center because im seeing two small indented centers side by side. is it decoupling? or are there two centers?

[Aric Dunn]

Full euro... though it does not have a closed system the euro takes it into the bahamas stalls it then moves it west just like the other models. pretty good consensus that far out.. only problem is will it survive.. DR

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTRO ... floop.html

[Aric Dunn]

can someone do a vis sat pic with circle around center because im seeing two small indented centers side by side. is it decoupling? or are there two centers?

no the center is somewhat exsposed but convection beginning to fire again over center and finally on the north side.

[BUCMAN48]

Rock,

You said it in a nutshell- all will be timing- forward speed(or lack of forward speed) and what amount of it's core is intact once it passes the islands. Any change of these rthings can change the whole synoptic set up- Fun days ahead!

[gatorcane]

So what does everybody think for the upcoming 5pm EST advisory?

Will the NHC show some kind of west bend towards Florida in the forecast track for this advisory?

Will they discuss the possibility of better upper-level conditions in the Bahamas?

[Aric Dunn]

They should have based in barbados. taking forever...

20 to 30 mins out from Guadelope..east of it..

yeah im watching it.. its like im down to twiddling my thumbs now lol

[adam0983]

I expect a shift to the right at the 5pm advisory due too the GFS shifting to the right. Or the NHC might wait for the next model run and shift it at 11pm if the GFS continues to shift right towards Florida. Just and Opinion not a forecast.

[JonathanBelles]

They should have based in barbados. taking forever...

20 to 30 mins out from Guadelope..east of it..

yeah im watching it.. its like im down to twiddling my thumbs now lol

Don't feel bad. You've got company.

[Evil Jeremy]

Full euro... though it does not have a closed system the euro takes it into the bahamas stalls it then moves it west just like the other models. pretty good consensus that far out.. only problem is will it survive.. DR

DUN DUN DUN!!!!!!!

Seriously though, the mountains of DR aren't as bad as Haiti. If Chantal moves through the northern part of Hispaniola, it should survive.

I think the NHC will make some sizable changes to the cone at 5pm. More north with a smoother WNW motion throughout (rather than the abrupt NW and NNW motion near the end).

[Aric Dunn]

So what does everybody think for the upcoming 5pm EST advisory?

Will the NHC show some kind of west bend towards Florida in the forecast track for this advisory?

Will they discuss the possibility of better upper-level conditions in the Bahamas?

probably both.. though they will likely keep the verbage about not knowing the interaction DR will have.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 082016
AF302 0103A CHANTAL HDOB 12 20130708
200800 1441N 05834W 3759 08056 0438 -200 -489 091024 024 012 000 00
200830 1440N 05832W 3761 08055 0438 -200 -491 092023 024 013 001 00
200900 1439N 05830W 3761 08058 0437 -200 -487 089024 024 017 000 00
200930 1437N 05828W 3761 08053 0437 -200 -490 089022 023 016 000 00
201000 1436N 05826W 3761 08056 0438 -201 -493 086021 022 017 000 00
201030 1434N 05824W 3761 08062 0438 -204 -498 085020 021 017 000 00
201100 1433N 05821W 3760 08053 0438 -200 -497 089020 020 019 000 00
201130 1432N 05819W 3759 08055 0437 -202 -493 086020 021 017 000 00
201200 1430N 05817W 3761 08057 0438 -201 -495 089021 021 015 000 00
201230 1429N 05815W 3761 08052 0438 -200 -493 093020 021 010 000 00
201300 1427N 05813W 3761 08055 0438 -200 -484 099019 020 011 000 00
201330 1426N 05811W 3761 08054 0438 -200 -486 101019 019 012 000 00
201400 1425N 05808W 3761 08052 0439 -200 -487 103019 019 016 001 00
201430 1423N 05806W 3761 08052 0437 -200 -487 099019 019 019 000 00
201500 1422N 05804W 3761 08051 0437 -200 -486 102018 019 020 001 00
201530 1421N 05802W 3759 08054 0437 -200 -487 100017 018 021 000 00
201600 1419N 05800W 3761 08054 0436 -200 -487 096017 018 019 001 00
201630 1418N 05758W 3760 08052 0436 -200 -486 094017 017 017 001 00
201700 1416N 05755W 3761 08055 0436 -200 -486 091017 017 017 000 00
201730 1415N 05753W 3761 08053 0435 -200 -486 089016 017 017 000 00
$$
;

[Red Seal]

I see a shift to the left due to high building in

[Aric Dunn]

Full euro... though it does not have a closed system the euro takes it into the bahamas stalls it then moves it west just like the other models. pretty good consensus that far out.. only problem is will it survive.. DR

DUN DUN DUN!!!!!!!

Seriously though, the mountains of DR aren't as bad as Haiti. If Chantal moves through the northern part of Hispaniola, it should survive.

I think the NHC will make some sizable changes to the cone at 5pm. More north with a smoother WNW motion throughout (rather than the abrupt NW and NNW motion near the end).

problem being though the system is quite small and even a little mountain range would likely disrupt the circ.

[Evil Jeremy]

yeah im watching it.. its like im down to twiddling my thumbs now lol

Don't feel bad. You've got company.

100 things of Dropsondes on the wall, 100 things of dropsondes, drop one down, in the ocean it'l drown, 99 things of dropsondes on the wall...