ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[Nederlander]

We've seen countless systems that move way too fast to stack. If she doesn't slow down, I wouldn't expect much strengthening. With fast moving developing storms, the LLCs tend to outrun the convection and you end up with a lopsided coc. That said, the banding has looked better than expected and it's maintaining decent convection. Just concerned about possible self-imposed shear.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Evil Jeremy]

I see a right shift with the 2-4 day points, but the day 5 point generally stays the same. Basically, instead of moving WNW for the next few days followed by a sharp turn to the NW and NNW, we just get a steady WNW to NW path for the next 5 days.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah im watching it.. its like im down to twiddling my thumbs now lol

Don't feel bad. You've got company.

100 things of Dropsondes on the wall, 100 things of dropsondes, drop one down, in the ocean it'l drown, 99 things of dropsondes on the wall...

lol well at least were not addicted or anything.....

[Dave]

I had supper a few minutes ago...not bad either.

Slowly descending...

Recon's at ops alt now...

[Evil Jeremy]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 082026
AF302 0103A CHANTAL HDOB 13 20130708
201800 1414N 05751W 3759 08056 0435 -200 -487 090016 016 018 000 00
201830 1412N 05749W 3762 08048 0434 -200 -487 091016 016 018 000 00
201900 1411N 05747W 3759 08054 0435 -200 -489 093016 016 018 000 00
201930 1409N 05744W 3761 08049 0433 -200 -491 090016 016 018 000 00
202000 1408N 05742W 3760 08050 0435 -200 -491 090015 015 017 000 00
202030 1406N 05740W 3761 08052 0434 -200 -491 092015 015 018 000 00
202100 1405N 05738W 3761 08059 0435 -200 -493 096015 015 019 000 00
202130 1404N 05736W 3759 08050 0435 -200 -496 094015 015 020 000 00
202200 1402N 05734W 3762 08050 0434 -200 -494 093015 015 019 000 00
202230 1401N 05731W 3761 08050 0434 -200 -495 094015 016 019 000 00
202300 1359N 05729W 3759 08054 0435 -200 -499 092015 015 019 000 00
202330 1358N 05727W 3761 08050 0434 -200 -496 092016 016 019 000 00
202400 1357N 05725W 3759 08059 0435 -200 -501 090016 017 018 000 00
202430 1356N 05722W 3761 08051 0435 -200 -510 089016 017 020 000 00
202500 1354N 05720W 3761 08048 0433 -200 -516 090016 016 018 000 00
202530 1353N 05718W 3759 08053 0434 -198 -519 092016 016 019 000 00
202600 1352N 05716W 3762 08047 0434 -196 -519 095017 017 019 000 00
202630 1350N 05713W 3759 08049 0433 -195 -525 098016 017 018 000 00
202700 1349N 05711W 3760 08051 0433 -195 -531 097016 016 019 000 00
202730 1348N 05709W 3761 08054 0433 -195 -531 092015 016 019 000 00
$$
;

[SouthFloridawx]

Any chance the center moves over Puerto Rico and over the Northern Portion of Hispaniola?

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 082036
AF302 0103A CHANTAL HDOB 14 20130708
202800 1346N 05707W 3759 08056 0433 -195 -531 089014 015 019 000 00
202830 1345N 05704W 3760 08052 0432 -195 -533 086014 015 019 000 00
202900 1344N 05702W 3761 08049 0433 -195 -533 085014 014 018 001 00
202930 1343N 05700W 3760 08053 0434 -195 -533 084014 014 019 000 00
203000 1341N 05658W 3761 08047 0432 -195 -530 081014 014 019 000 00
203030 1340N 05655W 3761 08049 0431 -195 -527 076013 014 019 000 00
203100 1339N 05653W 3761 08047 0431 -195 -527 074013 013 020 000 00
203130 1337N 05651W 3761 08049 0432 -195 -528 075013 014 019 001 00
203200 1336N 05648W 3759 08049 0431 -195 -530 074013 013 020 000 00
203230 1335N 05646W 3761 08050 0432 -195 -529 074013 013 020 000 00
203300 1333N 05644W 3759 08050 0432 -195 -529 076013 013 018 000 00
203330 1332N 05642W 3761 08048 0431 -195 -527 076013 013 018 000 00
203400 1331N 05639W 3759 08051 0431 -195 -526 076014 014 019 000 00
203430 1329N 05637W 3761 08046 0430 -195 -523 073014 015 019 000 00
203500 1328N 05635W 3759 08051 0431 -196 -523 070014 015 018 001 00
203530 1327N 05632W 3763 08041 0429 -195 -523 075015 015 020 000 00
203600 1325N 05630W 3879 07816 0419 -185 -526 086016 017 021 000 00
203630 1324N 05628W 4012 07564 0403 -166 -527 079016 017 020 000 00
203700 1323N 05626W 4137 07332 0389 -150 -527 079019 022 021 000 00
203730 1321N 05623W 4260 07107 0375 -135 -525 092023 024 022 000 00
$$
;

Descending to operational altitude...

000
URNT11 KNHC 082037
97779 20344 20135 56600 76200 07014 69981 /5759
RMK AF302 0103A CHANTAL OB 04
SWS = 18 KTS
Descent Point
;

[ROCK]

Full euro... though it does not have a closed system the euro takes it into the bahamas stalls it then moves it west just like the other models. pretty good consensus that far out.. only problem is will it survive.. DR

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTRO ... floop.html

is this a resolution problem because obviously this is a closed system at the moment? Why is it initializing an open wave?

yes, I am having a EURO melt down!!

[Evil Jeremy]

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO
ENGANO WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER.

[artist]

Tropical Storm CHANTAL Forecast Discussion
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US Watch/Warning
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000
WTNT43 KNHC 082041
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
500 PM AST MON JUL 08 2013

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF CHANTAL HAS OCCURRED
TODAY...SO THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 40 KT. HOWEVER...AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO THE CYCLONE
AND IT WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY SHORTLY.
VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW PATTERN.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 290/23 KT. CHANTAL IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT
2 DAYS...SO A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING
THAT TIME. BY DAYS 3-5...A LARGE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE BAHAMAS IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA AND PHASE UP WITH A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD CREATE A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AXIS AND PRODUCE
A WEAKER STEERING PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE
BAHAMAS. AS A RESULT...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN
NORTHWESTWARD BY 72 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES THE WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE...AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD ON
DAYS 4 AND 5 AS THE STEERING FLOW COLLAPSES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK...BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR RIGHT AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AROUND AND AHEAD OF CHANTAL FAVOR AT LEAST
MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE
CYCLONE REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING...AND
CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT REACHES
HISPANIOLA. AFTER CHANTAL MOVES PAST HISPANIOLA ON DAY 2/3...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BE AFFECTED BY MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS FLORIDA...
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE WEAKENING PROCESS. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
ESSENTIALLY FOLLOWS THE ICON CONSENSUS MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 11.8N 53.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 13.0N 57.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 14.6N 61.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 16.2N 66.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 17.8N 69.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 21.0N 74.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 24.3N 76.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 26.7N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[caribepr]

Shift to the left, shift to the right, no one knows, Chantal in flight. All I know is my houseboat is tied down, yard stuff put away. Just hope the roof of the chicken coop stays on!

[artist]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 082041
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
500 PM AST MON JUL 08 2013

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEARING CHANTAL...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 53.9W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO
ENGANO WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE
* GUADELOUPE
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* SOUTHERN COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE
BORDER WITH HAITI

INTERESTS IN HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF CHANTAL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.9 WEST. CHANTAL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHANTAL SHOULD REACH THE
LESSER ANTILLES EARLY TUESDAY...MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
LATER ON TUESDAY...AND BE NEAR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON TUESDAY...AND REACH PUERTO RICO ON
WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Aric Dunn]

Full euro... though it does not have a closed system the euro takes it into the bahamas stalls it then moves it west just like the other models. pretty good consensus that far out.. only problem is will it survive.. DR

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTRO ... floop.html

is this a resolution problem because obviously this is a closed system at the moment? Why is it initializing an open wave?

yes, I am having a EURO melt down!!

no it can resolve it .. not sure why its initializing wrong.

[ROCK]

Any chance the center moves over Puerto Rico and over the Northern Portion of Hispaniola?

the second map is the steering layer for this system at the moment. straight wnw for now until it gets stronger.

[Evil Jeremy]

Track slightly shifted to the right. Based on the discussion, it doesn't seem that the NHC is buying into the west turn into Florida that some of the models have been showing so far this afternoon:

CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN
NORTHWESTWARD BY 72 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES THE WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE...AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD ON
DAYS 4 AND 5 AS THE STEERING FLOW COLLAPSES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK...BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR RIGHT AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

[galaxy401]

No change in the NHC track. In fact it may have shifted slightly east.

[Blinhart]

My question is why would the storm get decimated by the mountains of Hispaniola if she is not a very deep system. I would think if she is a small TS that the mountains might actually help her to get a wider area and have a chance of actually getting a better core. I know some systems when they go over the Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba can actually gain some better characteristics of a Tropical Cyclone. It doesn't happen often, but it does happen.

[SFLcane]

bla..

[Evil Jeremy]

bla..

Care to elaborate?