ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[wxman57]

Very weak and disorganized, as I expected recon would find. Poorly-defined center and inflow doesn't appear to be very good. It's struggling with the fast movement. Not vertically aligned.

[floridasun78]

Very weak and disorganized, as I expected recon would find. Poorly-defined center and inflow doesn't appear to be very good. It's struggling with the fast movement. Not vertically aligned.

we may have td Chantal at 11pm?

[Aric Dunn]

or you were all tracking an MLC and the LLC has in fact raced well ahead of the convection

Do you know something that we don't? Because everything we have indicates the LLC is chugging along to the east of whatever recon is looking at:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

what you have is an image. What I am looking at is the hard data. The data so far clearly shows the center beyond a reasonable doubt ahead of the convection with pressures well above Stewart's estimate

problem with that is the satellite overlays are not updated and so where recon is and the sat show the center are will not aligned

[floridasun78]

look like shear winning plus west wind coming from western Caribbean

[torrea40]

Very weak and disorganized, as I expected recon would find. Poorly-defined center and inflow doesn't appear to be very good. It's struggling with the fast movement. Not vertically aligned.

You are crazy, he found winds over 52 mph

[SouthDadeFish]

Convection bursting just NE of the center. Aric what are your thoughts on the possibility of continued deep convection "tugging" the LLC a little back to the east, which could help align the circulation?

[lester]

Very weak and disorganized, as I expected recon would find. Poorly-defined center and inflow doesn't appear to be very good. It's struggling with the fast movement. Not vertically aligned.

You are crazy, he found winds over 52 mph

Those winds are rain contaminated.

[SouthDadeFish]

58 knot flight level winds found lol. Gotta love deep convection in the tropics!

[Aric Dunn]

the are they have been investigating is what I thought it was.. just the weak sw quad

[Evil Jeremy]

Recon just reported several unflagged readings of 55-58kts FL winds...

[Dave]

This is crazy too...missing 26..it'll be in as soon as the NHC server updates for now here's #27

URNT15 KNHC 082246
AF302 0103A CHANTAL HDOB 27 20130708
223800 1202N 05412W 9654 00400 0110 +215 +215 156038 041 041 013 00
223830 1204N 05411W 9666 00386 0108 +210 //// 154051 053 044 006 01
223900 1205N 05410W 9665 00390 0109 +208 +207 149056 057 048 017 00
223930 1206N 05409W 9673 00382 0112 +200 //// 154055 058 052 019 05
224000 1207N 05408W 9672 00383 0112 +199 +199 156055 056 059 032 00
224030 1208N 05407W 9646 00414 0118 +196 +196 159054 055 060 028 00
224100 1208N 05405W 9675 00388 0120 +201 +201 160050 054 052 033 00
224130 1209N 05404W 9666 00398 0123 +201 //// 160051 053 047 021 01
224200 1210N 05402W 9666 00401 0122 +203 +203 157051 053 043 005 01
224230 1212N 05401W 9671 00398 0125 +204 +204 153052 055 043 004 01
224300 1213N 05400W 9662 00406 0125 +207 +202 152052 055 042 006 03
224330 1214N 05359W 9670 00401 0126 +207 +202 148054 056 043 002 00
224400 1215N 05358W 9665 00405 0126 +210 +197 149055 056 043 003 00
224430 1216N 05356W 9665 00406 0126 +209 +195 149055 057 043 003 00
224500 1217N 05355W 9667 00405 0127 +214 +192 150054 055 041 002 00
224530 1218N 05354W 9664 00409 0128 +218 +182 153056 057 042 002 00
224600 1219N 05353W 9661 00413 0130 +213 +186 153054 057 042 002 00
224630 1220N 05352W 9663 00413 0132 +212 +192 150052 054 037 003 00
224700 1221N 05350W 9669 00407 0132 +216 +187 148051 052 037 002 00
224730 1222N 05349W 9670 00409 0134 +212 +195 147047 050 036 001 00
$$
;

[floridasun78]

Recon just reported several unflagged readings of 55-58kts FL winds...

put their unflagged

[CrazyC83]

Those winds support a 50 kt intensity. Could the forward motion be amplifying the surface winds?

[SapphireSea]

Not surprising, I sound like a broken record, but 2004's Earl just opened up while looking impressive. There was low to marginal shear level (0kt-10kt), but it's core just was disrupted by the strong E flow to the point where it finally opened up to a sharp wave. I would not be surprised if this could happen, the fact that this is badly tilted shows that is indeed taking a beating. Once it slows down it should have a chance, as long as the pattern does not progress faster than anticipated and it stalls near land, or if this keeps moving fast and hits the shear in the carrib. It had its chance last night into today IMO.

[Aric Dunn]

Convection bursting just NE of the center. Aric what are your thoughts on the possibility of continued deep convection "tugging" the LLC a little back to the east, which could help align the circulation?

[img]http://img703.imageshack.us/img703/2374/ly5p.jpg[/ig]

from sat I would say no.. from recon there clearly is prob in the sw quad being weak from the forward motion. the deep convection that has developed now could be pulling around a little. until now there has never been deep convection this close to the center. if it expands to the north more it could strengthen.

[floridasun78]

Those winds support a 50 kt intensity. Could the forward motion be amplifying the surface winds?

i heard unflagged are error report from plane

[Alyono]

Very weak and disorganized, as I expected recon would find. Poorly-defined center and inflow doesn't appear to be very good. It's struggling with the fast movement. Not vertically aligned.

You are crazy, he found winds over 52 mph

That wind is not valid!

[NDG]

Do you know something that we don't? Because everything we have indicates the LLC is chugging along to the east of whatever recon is looking at:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

what you have is an image. What I am looking at is the hard data. The data so far clearly shows the center beyond a reasonable doubt ahead of the convection with pressures well above Stewart's estimate

I still believe that they never reached the true COC on the initial pass because the pressure was still falling when they turned towards the SW quadrant of the storm.

I stand corrected, it indeed looks like the lowest pressure is 1010 mb, very weird despite the high winds it just found.

[CrazyC83]

Those winds support a 50 kt intensity. Could the forward motion be amplifying the surface winds?

i heard unflagged are error report from plane

Unflagged = legitimate. Highest legitimate SFMR is about 47 kt as well.

[hurricanekid416]

I doubt they downgrade under a ts because it's close to land