ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[Riptide]

Are they really going to use that 1011mb VDM? I must of been watching the MLC for hours, seemed like the low-level circulation was in the NE quad.

[Dean4Storms]

1010mb? Sounds high!

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 082306
AF302 0103A CHANTAL HDOB 29 20130708
225800 1246N 05325W 9666 00422 0144 +216 +194 149042 042 034 001 00
225830 1246N 05325W 9666 00422 0145 +220 +189 149042 043 033 001 00
225900 1248N 05323W 9665 00424 0146 +220 +193 148039 042 033 002 00
225930 1249N 05321W 9664 00425 0146 +219 +195 146038 039 030 000 00
230000 1251N 05320W 9667 00423 0147 +219 +196 144036 039 030 001 00
230030 1252N 05319W 9663 00428 0148 +219 +198 140035 036 031 001 00
230100 1253N 05318W 9670 00422 0148 +220 +205 137033 034 029 001 00
230130 1254N 05317W 9665 00426 0149 +219 +207 134033 034 029 001 03
230200 1255N 05316W 9655 00437 0150 +218 +205 131034 036 /// /// 03
230230 1255N 05316W 9655 00437 0150 +220 +205 130033 034 027 002 03
230300 1256N 05320W 9665 00426 0149 +218 +208 131033 034 030 000 00
230330 1256N 05321W 9670 00423 0149 +219 +205 131033 035 031 001 00
230400 1256N 05323W 9665 00427 0149 +220 +203 131033 035 031 001 00
230430 1256N 05325W 9664 00426 0148 +220 +195 130035 036 033 001 00
230500 1256N 05327W 9667 00424 0148 +220 +202 132033 036 033 001 00
230530 1256N 05329W 9666 00424 0148 +220 +201 132033 035 032 001 00
230600 1256N 05330W 9671 00419 0147 +220 +200 134035 036 032 001 00
230630 1255N 05332W 9667 00423 0147 +220 +200 136035 037 032 001 00
230700 1255N 05334W 9666 00423 0146 +220 +198 136036 037 033 000 00
230730 1255N 05336W 9665 00424 0146 +220 +199 134036 037 034 001 00
$$
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[CYCLONE MIKE]

Been in catch up mode reading the last 10 pgs of the model thread, what a read Anyway looks like,e the gfs and some other models have the right idea about the Bermuda high building back in blocking whatever is left of Chantal from moving north. Looks like Florida and folks along the northern gulf coast will be glued to this site for quite some time. If she makes it in the gulf is a big question. There will be a west turn, Just goign to all come down to timing and how quick she moves and how fast or slow the ridge builds in. Reminds me of a potential Erin type track from years ago that could happen with this storm.

[Dave]

Thanks Artist, all yours for awhile...I need to do some looking for a certain feed.

[Hurricaneman]

1010 pressure and 60mph, thats got to be one of the highest pressures of a high end tropical storm kind of like Debby in 1994

[CrazyC83]

Wasn't Andrew like that with a 1016mb or so pressure at one point?

[Aric Dunn]

1010 pressure and 60mph, thats got to be one of the highest pressures of a high end tropical storm kind of like Debby in 1994

from the data that does not appear to be the center. they may pass through it soon as they do a north south pass

[ROCK]

18Z NAVGEM---whats left of Chantal pays a visit to NO....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[CrazyC83]

Some of the 2004 storms also had very high pressures early on.

[northjaxpro]

Been in catch up mode reading the last 10 pgs of the model thread, what a read Anyway looks like,e the gfs and some other models have the right idea about the Bermuda high building back in blocking whatever is left of Chantal from moving north. Looks like Florida and folks along the northern gulf coast will be glued to this site for quite some time. If she makes it in the gulf is a big question. There will be a west turn, Just goign to all come down to timing and how quick she moves and how fast or slow the ridge builds in. Reminds me of a potential Erin type track from years ago that could happen with this storm.

Also, How much the land interaction will impact the storm in the next 72 hours or so will play a HUGE role in whatever is left of Chantal before the weekend.

[Hammy]

If the surrounding air pressures are very high, it would not be at all unusual to have this high of pressure with 60mph. Danny in 2003 for instance practically formed inside of a high pressure area and had 75 mph winds with 1000mb pressure.

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 082316
AF302 0103A CHANTAL HDOB 30 20130708
230800 1255N 05338W 9667 00423 0147 +220 +198 134037 038 033 002 00
230830 1255N 05339W 9666 00423 0146 +219 +199 137037 038 034 000 00
230900 1255N 05341W 9667 00422 0145 +219 +202 137036 038 034 000 00
230930 1255N 05343W 9669 00420 0145 +219 +201 136037 039 034 001 00
231000 1255N 05345W 9665 00423 0145 +219 +198 134038 039 034 001 00
231030 1255N 05347W 9667 00422 0145 +218 +199 133038 040 037 000 00
231100 1255N 05348W 9666 00422 0144 +219 +197 132039 040 037 000 00
231130 1255N 05350W 9664 00424 0144 +218 +199 132040 042 035 001 00
231200 1255N 05352W 9666 00422 0145 +218 +200 128040 041 037 002 00
231230 1255N 05354W 9665 00425 0145 +218 +201 124040 041 036 001 00
231300 1255N 05356W 9664 00424 0145 +220 +201 125041 043 037 001 03
231330 1255N 05358W 9669 00418 0144 +220 +202 126040 043 036 002 00
231400 1255N 05359W 9668 00419 0143 +220 +203 124039 041 036 001 00
231430 1255N 05401W 9668 00419 0142 +220 +203 123041 041 038 001 00
231500 1255N 05403W 9664 00419 0140 +219 +206 122042 042 036 001 00
231530 1255N 05405W 9666 00419 0142 +213 +207 125040 044 035 002 00
231600 1254N 05407W 9666 00419 0140 +220 +199 125044 046 037 002 00
231630 1254N 05409W 9666 00419 0140 +220 +198 123046 046 037 002 03
231700 1254N 05411W 9665 00420 0140 +218 +201 126043 045 038 001 00
231730 1254N 05413W 9664 00419 0139 +218 +198 126047 049 039 001 00

[NDG]

1010 pressure and 60mph, thats got to be one of the highest pressures of a high end tropical storm kind of like Debby in 1994

In a way the pressure of just 1010 mb makes sense, it is surrounded by fairly high surface pressures with a 1026 mb surface pressure centered over Bermuda.

[Evil Jeremy]

As a reminder, I am keeping the first post in the Recon Discussion thread (in my signature) as a consistantly updated log of Recon's findings in layman's terms.

[meriland23]

1010 mb pressure?.. that is high enough for maybe a TD ..not a TS.. and certainly not one that has 60mph + winds.. did they type in the wrong number? LOl

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Dont think whatever Chantal is, weak/moderate storm or a remnant low, will make a difference to the ridge or not. Whatever she is at that time will still be turned to the west.

[northjaxpro]

Dont think whatever Chantal is, weak/moderate storm or a remnant low, will make a difference to the ridge or not. Whatever she is at that time will still be turned to the west.

Well, that is not set in stone yet, but I would tend to agree with you. Still have to follow the models to see if the ridge continues to build in especially going out the next 72 -84 hours.

[Hammy]

Dean in 2001 was 60/1010 http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2001/pu ... c.001.html
and similarly small circulation.

[Dave]

Here's your missing NHC VDM #10

URNT12 KNHC 082307 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032013
A. 08/22:27:40Z
B. 11 deg 38 min N
054 deg 34 min W
C. NA
D. 27 kt
E. 115 deg 25 nm
F. 179 deg 29 kt
G. 116 deg 28 nm
H. EXTRAP 1011 mb
I. 20 C / 395 m
J. 22 C / 392 m
K. 22 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 9 nm
P. AF302 0103A CHANTAL OB 10 CCA
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 58 KT 042/37 22:39:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX FL TEMP 22 C 106 / 11 NM FROM FL CNTR
MIN SLP 1010 MB 042/21NM FROM FLT LEVEL CTR
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