Cutoff ULL in Bahamas

[northjaxpro]

That is crazy that CNN made such an careless error like that. That is not good at all. Hopefully they update that and change it fast.

But, this area approaching the Bahamas most definoitely is getting more interesting by the hour as we have dicussed about an hour or so ago. Definitely needs to be watched.

[NDG]

That is crazy that CNN made such an careless error like that. That is not good at all. Hopefully they update that and change it fast.

But, this area approaching the Bahamas most definoitely is getting more interesting by the hour as we have dicussed about an hour or so ago. Definitely needs to be watched.

Interesting that the UL clouds almost have that look of fanning out, not a good sign. But so far no sign of a LL vorticity.

[Tireman4]

That is crazy that CNN made such an careless error like that. That is not good at all. Hopefully they update that and change it fast.

But, this area approaching the Bahamas most definoitely is getting more interesting by the hour as we have dicussed about an hour or so ago. Definitely needs to be watched.

I stated that maybe this was Chantal's sister....according to CNN...LOL

[northjaxpro]

Not yet NDG. You are right. However, this system has a better chance than it ever has of working itself down to the surface as the energy for that tropical wave has caught up with the ULL feature. Convection contues to look healthy and if it can maintain for the next 12-24 hours, I think it is a decent probability we may see this tagged as an invest. It is an interesting feature to watch. All of a sudden, things are popping out there with Chantal and this entity in the Bahamas. Interesting times ahead for sure.

[Dean4Storms]

12z GEM still developing a surface Low in the FL Straits, closing it off and moving it northward toward the FL Panhandle. Doesn't appear to be much more than a TS in this run.


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

[gatorcane]

not looking too bad - maybe worth an invest tag later today if this convection keeps up.

[Florida1118]

Well....it got mentioned

A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WATERS. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AND
PRESSURES ARE HIGH IN THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. HOWEVER...THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...AND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Probably good amounts of rain are gonna come out of this over here....we don't need it though.

[Aric Dunn]

appears to be a low forming between just north hati and cuba.

[northjaxpro]

Well, as Dean4Storms pointed out earlier, this morning's earlier run of the GEM did show a Low forming in the Florida Straits and moving NW parallel the Florida West Coast making landfall in the panhandle in 5-6 days.

I have been watching this area closely and Aric, I agree that this system is trying to attemp to make a reflection at the surface. I will be intersted to see if NHC tags this area an invest later tonight or by dawn tomorrow morning.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

If the cut off low is suppose to move across FLA how come it appears to be drifting north? Thought the high was forcing it to go west?

[floridasun78]

nhc drop it from 8pm outlook

[tailgater]

I'm thinking they might put it back up with the 0% tag again.

[tolakram]

Still no sign of anything at the surface, IMO.

live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Pressure is not falling at the nearest buoy.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... _label=EDT

[tailgater]

Yeah nothing at the surfsce yet but 700mb voricity is increasing and I noticed that tops are fanning out a little.

[northjaxpro]

This feature may not develop at the surface, however, it could play a BIG role to whatever is remaining of Chantal in the next 2 -3 days. If the ULL is still vigorous enough in that time frame, the weakness inthe ridge may be enough to allow Chantal to escape being heavily impacted by Hispaniola and the cyclone may skate by or skirt that island. It is a very close call. It will be very interesting to watch this.

Looking at the latest satellite imagery, the ULL almost looks to be stationary or slightly drifting northward. It still looks quite vigorous and I don't forsee this ULL dampening out anytime soon.

[tailgater]

Nice loop to watch ULL

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... type=flash

[tropicwatch]

That is an incredible loop. Even though most of the showers are over the Bahamas it appears the ULL is moving west the center (I use that term loosely) appears to be south east of Miami approaching the Florida straits.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like it is starting to work its way down.

Lower level winds: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[tropicwatch]

Definetly something trying to brew closer to the surface.