ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

It's really not surprising to see Chantal with a pressure above 1005 millibars w/ 60 mph winds given the high pressure environment it's in.

[torrea40]

11.6333N 54.5667W. This is the center....With 55mph

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Our local OCM mentioned the fact that some models have started to show a more west turn and says the gulf needs to keep one eye on Chantal this week. He thinks she will not have an escape to the north but just a matter of when she turns left will be the big question.

[adam0983]

High pressure means that the storm must have a low wind field.

[Dave]

Just testing something Artist, let me get this one then you can have it back.

URNT15 KNHC 082326
AF302 0103A CHANTAL HDOB 31 20130708
231800 1254N 05414W 9667 00416 0138 +217 +200 125045 049 039 002 00
231830 1254N 05416W 9662 00419 0138 +216 +200 123045 047 042 001 00
231900 1254N 05418W 9669 00411 0137 +219 +193 125048 052 044 000 03
231930 1254N 05420W 9656 00423 0136 +216 +198 124045 047 043 002 00
232000 1254N 05422W 9665 00415 0135 +217 +195 123049 053 042 002 00
232030 1254N 05424W 9666 00413 0134 +219 +194 121050 052 044 000 03
232100 1254N 05426W 9661 00418 0134 +216 +201 118048 050 042 002 00
232130 1254N 05428W 9662 00416 0134 +216 +203 117046 050 043 001 00
232200 1254N 05430W 9663 00415 0132 +217 +201 113045 047 041 002 00
232230 1254N 05432W 9663 00414 0132 +216 +204 110044 046 040 002 00
232300 1254N 05434W 9666 00409 0130 +217 +204 109045 046 040 002 03
232330 1254N 05436W 9664 00411 0130 +218 +202 108045 048 041 002 03
232400 1254N 05438W 9661 00413 0130 +219 +201 106048 048 039 001 03
232430 1253N 05440W 9667 00408 0129 +219 +201 103047 049 040 003 00
232500 1253N 05442W 9662 00412 0128 +219 +201 099048 051 042 002 00
232530 1253N 05444W 9670 00404 0127 +220 +203 097046 048 042 001 00
232600 1253N 05446W 9668 00406 0127 +220 +202 094045 047 041 000 03
232630 1253N 05448W 9666 00406 0126 +220 +202 093044 045 040 002 00
232700 1253N 05449W 9666 00406 0126 +220 +202 094044 047 042 001 00
232730 1253N 05451W 9665 00406 0125 +221 +202 091043 046 040 001 00
$$
;

Thank you...all yours again.

[Aric Dunn]

they should find the center well north of the vdm... also recon finding plenty more winds to support 50kt

[Evil Jeremy]

[meriland23]

and the max outbound / max fl wind is actually 66 mph....

[stormhunter7]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 23:07Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 03L in 2013
Storm Name: Chantal (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 22:27:40Z

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 58 KT 042/37 22:39:30Z
MIN SLP 1010 MB 042/21NM FROM FLT LEVEL CTR

storm is not stacked vertically, which is to be expected with 26mph surface movement. *Surface center is 21 miles ahead of flight level center.. in other words the surface center is 21nm to the SW of flt level ctr.

[Blown Away]

I can't remember a storm when nearly all our mets on the board disagreed with the NHC. NHC sticking to their guns with weakening north of the big islands reagardless of how much land interaction... Interesting...

[meriland23]

will nhc pick up on this in the next 20 min for the next update?

[Aric Dunn]

microwave image showing the center up around 11.8 to 11.9n not down at 11.6 that and this microwave is from a couple hours means its prob around 12n

[Riptide]

Surface pressures are dropping as the plane heads west, probably approaching the real center.

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 082337
AF302 0103A CHANTAL HDOB 32 20130708
232800 1253N 05453W 9665 00406 0124 +222 +199 092043 045 040 000 03
232830 1253N 05455W 9665 00406 0125 +220 +205 089041 043 039 001 03
232900 1253N 05457W 9667 00404 0125 +222 +203 090044 046 040 000 00
232930 1253N 05459W 9664 00408 0125 +215 +210 080041 042 039 002 00
233000 1252N 05501W 9665 00405 0124 +215 +208 077041 042 037 001 03
233030 1252N 05503W 9665 00405 0124 +216 +209 076042 044 037 000 00
233100 1252N 05505W 9663 00407 0124 +221 +204 079042 043 038 001 00
233130 1251N 05507W 9663 00407 0124 +223 +202 076042 042 039 002 00
233200 1251N 05509W 9664 00407 0125 +220 +206 077043 043 038 001 00
233230 1251N 05511W 9668 00404 0125 +220 +207 075042 044 036 000 00
233300 1251N 05513W 9664 00409 0126 +220 +206 072041 043 037 001 00
233330 1250N 05515W 9663 00410 0127 +220 +204 073043 044 037 000 00
233400 1250N 05517W 9666 00407 0126 +221 +202 071041 042 036 001 00
233430 1250N 05519W 9668 00405 0125 +224 +201 066041 042 037 001 00
233500 1250N 05521W 9664 00408 0126 +223 +206 062042 043 038 000 00
233530 1250N 05522W 9665 00407 0126 +226 +201 062041 042 037 000 03
233600 1250N 05522W 9665 00407 0127 +225 +202 062042 044 040 001 03
233630 1250N 05526W 9667 00408 0128 +227 +201 064044 045 040 001 00
233700 1250N 05528W 9663 00413 0128 +229 +204 062044 044 038 001 00
233730 1250N 05530W 9662 00412 0127 +230 +205 060040 044 036 000 00
$$
;

[Syx6sic]

Is it just me or does it look like recon going back home?

[Evil Jeremy]

[TheStormExpert]

I can't remember a storm when nearly all our mets on the board disagreed with the NHC. NHC sticking to their guns with weakening north of the big islands reagardless of how much land interaction... Interesting...

Wxman57 earlier today was saying he expects Chantal to enter a much more favorable environment north of the big islands once in the Bahamas, since it will be slowing down.

[Aric Dunn]

Is it just me or does it look like recon going back home?

they should drop to do one more pass

[CrazyC83]

The wind and pressure centers may be detached as well?

[Evil Jeremy]

Is it just me or does it look like recon going back home?

they should drop to do one more pass

Recon is scheduled to investigate until 8:30pm.