ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[Evil Jeremy]

Yep, they are homebound. up to 5k+ meters.

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 090036
AF302 0103A CHANTAL HDOB 38 20130709
002800 1153N 05553W 8350 01678 0137 +151 +143 056010 012 009 001 00
002830 1154N 05555W 8438 01591 0139 +155 +142 052011 012 011 001 00
002900 1155N 05556W 8432 01596 0139 +154 +140 041011 011 008 001 00
002930 1156N 05558W 8432 01597 0139 +154 +140 044012 013 009 001 00
003000 1157N 05600W 8379 01650 0137 +153 +132 050014 015 010 000 03
003030 1158N 05601W 7905 02144 0134 +134 +102 057015 016 /// /// 03
003100 1159N 05603W 7636 02429 0124 +121 +081 056015 016 008 001 03
003130 1200N 05605W 7293 02822 0123 +104 +067 042017 019 010 000 03
003200 1200N 05606W 7021 03139 0125 +083 +058 048018 019 008 001 03
003230 1201N 05608W 6755 03467 //// +055 //// 050017 019 /// /// 05
003300 1202N 05609W 6486 03804 0130 +052 +016 044016 019 015 001 03
003330 1203N 05611W 6294 04050 0119 +045 -000 044014 016 018 003 03
003400 1204N 05613W 6087 04326 0104 +040 -025 051016 017 019 003 00
003430 1205N 05614W 5932 04513 0081 +025 -038 058020 022 019 000 00
003500 1206N 05616W 5748 04762 0079 +009 -057 049023 023 015 000 03
003530 1207N 05618W 5573 05030 0092 -004 -082 047023 023 016 000 00
003600 1208N 05620W 5430 05239 0277 -018 -105 052026 027 016 000 00
003630 1209N 05622W 5288 05451 0291 -034 -108 055028 028 017 000 00
003700 1210N 05624W 5144 05664 0304 -051 -108 060025 027 020 001 00
003730 1211N 05626W 5033 05841 0315 -058 -133 067026 026 025 002 00
$$
;

[SouthDadeFish]

Shoot. I don't get why they couldn't punch through the center this time to see what was on the other side. I guess fuel constraints. Oh well. Starting to look better on satellite now, which is also backed up by increasing T Numbers.

[stormhunter7]

I got them climbing through 19kft.

[Evil Jeremy]

Mission is complete. Can I get some feedback on how well keeping the first post updated went? Were people following it? If it went well tonight I'll try to do it again for the 7:00am mission, but I don't want to be wasting my time.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 03, 2013070900, , BEST, 0, 120N, 550W, 45, 1010, TS

[SeminoleWind]

NO storm is allowed to hit Florida until after the 18th.I am closing on a sale of my house. Go away storm.

[Dave]

Mission is complete. Can I get some feedback on how well keeping the first post updated went? Were people following it? If it went well tonight I'll try to do it again for the 7:00am mission, but I don't want to be wasting my time.

Ask out on the main threads too Jeremy. I liked it but I didn't get to see as much as I wanted this afternoon. I'll be on sometime tomorrow but it'll be the 2nd leg of the morning run probably.

[Aric Dunn]

Shoot. I don't get why they couldn't punch through the center this time to see what was on the other side. I guess fuel constraints. Oh well. Starting to look better on satellite now, which is also backed up by increasing T Numbers.

yeah just needed to do a full clean pass... oh well. next recon.. though by that time it will be crossing the islands almost and we will have radar.

[Evil Jeremy]

Next mission takes off at 6:30am, should reach Chantal by 7:30am.

[summersquall]

NO storm is allowed to hit Florida until after the 18th.I am closing on a sale of my house. Go away storm.

Indeed. It is usually better to be in the cone early on.

[artist]

Way way way to early to tell.

Considering the track error at 5 days is something like 200 miles I wouldn't put much faith in the storm being 75 miles offshore... could be right over WPB or several hundred miles offshore.

Perhaps the met. said that if it follows the current projected track, it will miss WPB by 75 miles to the east. I can't envision any local TV met. making that call with any certainty at this point when the storm hasn't passed the Lesser Antilles.

Unfortunately some of the mets have been known to do such a thing. I think some tv mets truly don't understand the cone, just as many others don't. Sad, really.

[Blown Away]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
808 PM EDT MON JUL 8 2013
SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT WESTWARD
TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA...LEADING TO INCREASING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH MID-WEEK. THEREAFTER...WEATHER WILL
DEPEND ON THE FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM
CHANTAL...WHICH ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

THE 2PM EDT TODAY...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS
LOCATED ABOUT 470 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS. THE LATEST
FORECAST AS OF THIS DISCUSSIONS ISSUANCE TIME TRACKS CHANTAL
ACROSS THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS TUESDAY...SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE BAHAMAS ON
FRIDAY...MAINTAIN CHANTALS STATUS AS A TROPICAL STORM. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS TO THE INFLUENCE OF HISPANIOLA ON THE SYSTEM...AS WELL AS
HOW MUCH UPPER LEVEL WIND-SHEAR WILL SUPPRESS INTENSIFICATION.
THUS...THE IMPACTS ON SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...IN ANY...ARE
UNCLEAR.

NWS Miami not sold yet on weakening in Bahamas...

[Evil Jeremy]

Did anyone happen to follow the live recon updates I was doing in the "Recon Discussion" thread? I enjoyed doing it and think it can be very useful for people who are just jumping into the recon info during a mission, but I don't want to be wasting time if people don't find it useful. I plan on doing it again for the mission tomorrow morning.

[jlauderdal]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
808 PM EDT MON JUL 8 2013
SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT WESTWARD
TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA...LEADING TO INCREASING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH MID-WEEK. THEREAFTER...WEATHER WILL
DEPEND ON THE FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM
CHANTAL...WHICH ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

THE 2PM EDT TODAY...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS
LOCATED ABOUT 470 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS. THE LATEST
FORECAST AS OF THIS DISCUSSIONS ISSUANCE TIME TRACKS CHANTAL
ACROSS THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS TUESDAY...SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE BAHAMAS ON
FRIDAY...MAINTAIN CHANTALS STATUS AS A TROPICAL STORM. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS TO THE INFLUENCE OF HISPANIOLA ON THE SYSTEM...AS WELL AS
HOW MUCH UPPER LEVEL WIND-SHEAR WILL SUPPRESS INTENSIFICATION.
THUS...THE IMPACTS ON SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...IN ANY...ARE
UNCLEAR.

NWS Miami not sold yet on weakening in Bahamas...

their discussion makes sense based; they can also walk down the hall to nhc and get their take and they can read this forum...:mrgreen:

[chrisjslucia]

Doesn't matter how many time I visit this site or NHC, that Chantal is glued on to rain right on my head in the morning. Tried the "how close will it come" gizmo elsewhere and the centre will pass 1.4 miles away. Time to wish Barbados, Guadeloupe, Dominica and Martinique well - take care Gusty and Abajan - and open the rum!! If anyone has good news - like not much rain with this TS - I will happily share the bottle.

[ozonepete]

Did anyone happen to follow the live recon updates I was doing in the "Recon Discussion" thread? I enjoyed doing it and think it can be very useful for people who are just jumping into the recon info during a mission, but I don't want to be wasting time if people don't find it useful. I plan on doing it again for the mission tomorrow morning.

They were great so I'm all for it. You are someone we can really trust to get it right and they can save a lot of us a lot of time.

[summersquall]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
808 PM EDT MON JUL 8 2013
SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT WESTWARD
TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA...LEADING TO INCREASING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH MID-WEEK. THEREAFTER...WEATHER WILL
DEPEND ON THE FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM
CHANTAL...WHICH ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

THE 2PM EDT TODAY...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS
LOCATED ABOUT 470 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS. THE LATEST
FORECAST AS OF THIS DISCUSSIONS ISSUANCE TIME TRACKS CHANTAL
ACROSS THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS TUESDAY...SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE BAHAMAS ON
FRIDAY...MAINTAIN CHANTALS STATUS AS A TROPICAL STORM. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS TO THE INFLUENCE OF HISPANIOLA ON THE SYSTEM...AS WELL AS
HOW MUCH UPPER LEVEL WIND-SHEAR WILL SUPPRESS INTENSIFICATION.
THUS...THE IMPACTS ON SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...IN ANY...ARE
UNCLEAR.

NWS Miami not sold yet on weakening in Bahamas...

Yes and the NHC has been extremely consistent since Chantal's designation last evening, 11 pm advisory, with their 96 and 120 hr Wind Speed Probabilities.

[artist]

Doesn't matter how many time I visit this site or NHC, that Chantal is glued on to rain right on my head in the morning. Tried the "how close will it come" gizmo elsewhere and the centre will pass 1.4 miles away. Time to wish Barbados, Guadeloupe, Dominica and Martinique well - take care Gusty and Abajan - and open the rum!! If anyone has good news - like not much rain with this TS - I will happily share the bottle.

Hope it doesn't get too bad there for you. Can you let us know how things go in the OBS thread that is stickied tomorrow so we know all is well with you?

[Stephanie]

Just check in when you can to let us all know here how you are doing.

Go for it Evil Jeremy. Anyone that wants to help out with providing important information is always welcome. It's the member's board! Thanks for your help!